Africa is increasingly becoming a place where the future gets tested first. This week’s stories track a continent adapting quickly, from stablecoin payment rails and resilient economies to drone logistics, rising local capital and billionaire-backed eco-tourism islands hidden in the Atlantic. I hope you learn something new.
Figure of the Week
Africa increasingly trades with itself. Intra-African trade has risen from 3% of total trade in the late 1950s to nearly 20% today. I know that’s still small, but it’s progress! Source: Financial Times
Graphic of the Week
A Shock Tested Africa
Source: Generated by Renew Capital
Ken Opalo’s good thinking showed up in the Financial Times this week and the graphic above provides useful context. Some of his readers pushed back in the comment section, but the data makes a strong case. His core argument: Sub-Saharan Africa is far more economically resilient than many outsiders still assume.
The data:
Opalo contrasts today with the 1980s debt crisis, when many African countries were less than 20 years old and weak state capacity, commodity collapses and structural adjustment programs triggered prolonged stagnation
African economies have since weathered several major external shocks, including the global financial crisis, COVID and the war in Ukraine
Before the Iran conflict, Africa was projected to outgrow Asia in 2026 for the first time in the modern era
Intra-African trade has risen to nearly 20% of regional trade, up from just 3% in the late 1950s
Why it matters:
Opalo argues stronger central banks, deeper regional trade and a more diversified private sector have fundamentally changed the continent’s resilience. Of course, Africa remains vulnerable to global shocks, and the current Gulf crisis will continue to test each country's resilience. But this is no longer the Africa of the 1980s.
What We Are Reading
Africa: Geopolitical shocks are accelerating a major shift in African finance, as governments and investors increasingly turn to the continent’s $4T domestic capital pool to fund growth amid declining global capital flows (Bloomberg); Ghana’s cedi is predicted to weaken as strong corporate demand for dollars outweighs mining sector FX inflows, while Kenya, Nigeria and Zambia’s currencies are expected to remain relatively stable (Reuters); Despite a surge in shipping traffic around southern Africa after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, most African ports are capturing little of the economic upside due to congestion, weak infrastructure and limited commercial incentives for carriers to stop (Bloomberg).
Angola: IMF warned public debt will hit the legal ceiling in medium term despite oil price gains and urges fiscal discipline and economic diversification (Reuters).
Burkina Faso: An investigative journalist and dozens of others were reportedly detained and abused in an informal jail amid a wider junta crackdown on dissent (AP News).
Côte d’Ivoire: IMF reached an agreement on program reviews, clearing path for about $843.9M in funding once completed (Reuters).
Ethiopia: Tensions escalated in Tigray as the TPLF reasserts regional control on Tuesday in defiance of the 2022 peace deal, raising fears of renewed conflict (Reuters).
Gabon: Finance ministry signed $150M World Bank deal as it launches debt audit and deepens talks with IMF to restore fiscal stability (Reuters).
Kenya: Marathoner Sabastian Sawe broke the two-hour barrier, set the record and earned national honors (AP News); Four critically endangered mountain bongos returned from a Czech zoo to boost conservation breeding and rewilding efforts (AP News); Government considered $600M World Bank emergency support and other financing to cushion economy from rising fuel and inflation pressures linked to Iran war (Bloomberg).
Madagascar: Authorities detained a former French serviceman and accused others of plotting sabotage and unrest, including attacks on power infrastructure (Reuters).
Mali: Military retook a Niger border town from Islamist militants after coordinated insurgent attacks across the north and central regions (Reuters).
Mauritania: Two opposition female lawmakers sentenced to four years in prison for insulting the president and alleging racial discrimination and abuses (AP News).
Morocco: King Mohammed VI promoted Crown Prince Moulay El Hassan to senior army coordination role as he prepares for eventual succession (Bloomberg).
Mozambique is considering converting $1.4B of Chinese debt into renminbi as part of a restructuring amid worsening debt distress (Bloomberg).
Nigeria: Peter Obi quit the opposition coalition, leaving President Tinubu with a stronger path to 2027 reelection (Bloomberg).
Senegal: President Faye warned ruling party faces collapse amid rift with his prime minister as IMF debt talks continue (Bloomberg).
Somalia: Military killed 22 al-Shabaab militants, including a commander in Lower Shabelle, with support from foreign troops (Reuters).
South Africa: Protests against illegal immigration in Johannesburg and Pretoria are escalating tensions as groups demand stricter enforcement and mass deportations (AP News); Japan planned to fast-track talks on a yen loan and promote ammonia co-firing technology to support the country’s coal-heavy energy transition (Bloomberg).
South Sudan: President Kiir fired foreign and trade ministers and senior security officials in a major government reshuffle (Reuters).
Sudan accused Ethiopia of launching drone strikes on Khartoum airport and recalled its ambassador, while Ethiopia denies the claims (AP News).
Uganda: Canoe carrying 35 to 40 passengers capsized on River Nguse, leaving people missing as rescue operations continue (AP News).
Zambia accused the United States of linking $2B health aid to mineral access and data sharing as talks stall (AP News).
Business & Finance in Africa
Africa Trades Differently With Itself
Source: World Bank
A new World Bank report, Integrating Africa: From Threads to Hubs, makes the obvious case that Africa’s biggest economic opportunity may not be exporting more raw materials to the world, but trading more value-added goods with itself.
The insight:
More than half of Africa’s exports to the rest of the world are still raw commodities
But more than 60% of trade between African countries is in manufactured and processed goods
The report estimates intra-African trade still accounts for around 17% of exports (Ken Opalo’s FT piece cited 20%, hopefully he’s right).
Why it matters: The report argues Africa’s problem is not that it trades too little, but that it remains economically fragmented internally. Regional integration, especially through manufacturing, logistics and digital interoperability, is framed as a prerequisite for industrialization.
The big idea: According to the report, the future of African integration may depend less on tariffs and more on whether payments, customs systems, transport corridors and regulations can actually work together across borders.
Stablecoin Rails Rise
Source: Chain Analysis
I was at the 3i conference in Ghana this week where CGAP’s Ivo Jenik and partners launched a new report, Stablecoins in Africa: Translating Global Principles into Local Regulatory Practice. The core message: Africa is emerging as one of the world’s most important real-world stablecoin markets because the continent’s financial frictions are so large.
The context:
Stablecoin adoption is accelerating across Africa for remittances, trade settlement and cross-border payments
The global stablecoin market has reached roughly $300B in market cap and $12.5T in annual transaction volume
More than 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the U.S. dollar
Regulators are increasingly focusing on exchanges and payment gateways instead of outright crypto bans
Why it matters: Africa still has some of the world’s highest remittance costs, fragmented payment systems and large unbanked populations. In countries like the Gambia and Lesotho, remittances exceed 20% of GDP. The report argues stablecoins are increasingly behaving less like speculative crypto and more like payment infrastructure.
The tension: Africa wants faster and cheaper financial rails, but most stablecoins are offshore-issued and dollar-denominated, raising concerns around monetary sovereignty and regulation.
Bottom line: Africa is not just adopting new financial technology. It is becoming a laboratory for the future of global payments. That’s a definite theme this week.
Innovation in Africa
“Anything But Zero”
Source: Zipline’s Wikipedia page
Slight disclosure issue here since the author is both my co-CEO and the person sitting across from me at the dinner table, but Matt Davis makes a compelling argument this week that global tech companies are underestimating Africa as a testing ground for innovation.
The piece argues:
Africa’s toughest constraints—unreliable power, fragmented payment rails and funding scarcity—are exactly what force startups to build stronger products
Power outages alone cost African economies 1% to 5% of GDP annually, while mobile phones have become nearly ubiquitous across much of the continent
Sub-Saharan Africa now accounts for more than half of global mobile money accounts and more than 65% of global transaction value
The article flips the usual “Africa is behind” narrative on its head. In many sectors, Africa is not retrofitting legacy systems. It is building mobile-first, API-driven and increasingly AI-enabled systems from scratch.
The insight: Zipline tested drone delivery at scale in Rwanda years before many Western regulators were ready to allow it. The broader point: Africa increasingly gives founders room to prove what works in the real world. If your technology can survive Africa’s operating conditions, there’s a good chance it can survive anywhere.
Explorations in Africa
Billionaire Paradise Islands
Source: Princípe Collection, which includes Bom Bom Resort
Travel scuttlebutt from my stay in Ghana this week confirms the NatGeo piece we featured April 24 and suggests São Tomé and Príncipe, especially Príncipe, may be the place to visit in 2026, so I did a little bit more homework. The catch: getting there is still notoriously difficult.
Part of the buzz centers around South African tech billionaire Mark Shuttleworth, who has spent years quietly buying and restoring properties across Príncipe. His newest move is even more ambitious: paying local residents annual conservation stipends to protect the island’s biodiversity.
Why people are suddenly talking about Príncipe:
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve with extraordinary endemic wildlife
Empty beaches, rainforest hikes, whale watching and sea turtles with almost no crowds
Tiny scale: only about 6,000 residents on the island
Eco-luxury without the overdevelopment of Zanzibar, Seychelles or Mauritius
A strange blend of Africa, the Caribbean and old Portuguese colonial culture
Shuttleworth’s long-term vision appears less about mass tourism and more about building a high-end conservation economy around small-scale eco-tourism, restored plantations and biodiversity protection. His company reportedly employs roughly 400 people on an island of just 6,000 residents. The vibe sounds less “luxury beach destination” and more “Jurassic Park meets barefoot Atlantic hideaway.” Read a review and visit the Príncipe Collection website.
Thanks for reading this week. Hope to see some of you in Addis Ababa next week. And if you missed it, you might enjoy last week’s graphic of the week on Humanity’s Quiet Win. As always, email us at [email protected] if you have thoughts.
