The future is showing up faster than expected. This week’s data makes it hard to ignore: births are shifting, capital is spreading and Africa is growing through shocks. The momentum is always real, but so are the pressures underneath it. Read on.
Figure of the Week
More than 1 in 3 babies born globally in 2026 will be African, cementing the continent as the world’s future workforce. Source: Visual Capitalist
Graphic of the Week
Births Shift South
Source: Visual Capitalist
In 2026, 85% of global births will occur in Asia and Africa, with Asia accounting for nearly half and Africa more than a third, underscoring a decisive shift in where the world’s future population and economic potential will be concentrated.
What’s happening
Asia: 49% of births (64.9 million) driven by population scale
Africa: 36% (47.6 million) fueled by high fertility and a young population
Europe, North America and Oceania: just ~8% combined
Why it matters
Where people are born shapes labor markets, consumption and growth. The center of gravity is moving toward emerging markets. If you read these pages regularly, this is not new: The future workforce and consumer base is increasingly African and Asian. Read more: Visual Capitalist
Source: Visual Capitalist
Nearly all of the world’s 1.4 billion population growth by 2050 will come from sub-Saharan Africa, while major economies like China, Japan and Italy shrink, cementing a global demographic shift toward the continent.
What We Are Reading
Benin: The incoming government planned a new IMF program to sustain strong growth and fiscal discipline as it prepares to take office amid security risks and moderate debt levels (Bloomberg).
Cameroon: Pope Leo XIV visited Bamenda for a peace meeting amid a separatist conflict that has killed more than 6,000 people as government and Anglophone rebels remain far apart on a political solution (AP News).
Congo Brazzaville: President Nguesso was sworn in for another five-year term, extending his 42-year rule after winning reelection with 94.8% (AP News).
DR Congo: The central bank announced it will restrict U.S. dollar cash transactions from next April, shifting payments to electronic channels to curb money laundering and strengthen confidence in the franc (Bloomberg).
Egypt: IMF said reforms and higher reserves are helping Egypt’s economy absorb Iran war shocks as the pound stabilizes and foreign inflows return (Bloomberg); launched a $27B development east of Cairo called “The Spine” aimed at boosting jobs growth and investment (Morocco World News).
Equatorial Guinea: Pope Leo XIV condemned mineral exploitation and inequality during his visit, criticizing corruption and urging protection of the poor in the oil-rich, authoritarian state (AP News).
Ethiopia: EIB and Zemen Bank announced they will provide $46.7M USD in financing for agricultural exporters and SMEs with a focus on climate and women-led businesses (Addis Standard); Tigray’s ruling party has reinstated its prewar parliament, escalating tensions with Ethiopia’s federal government and threatening the fragile post-conflict balance (Semafor).
Ghana: The Bank of Ghana planned to mobilize diaspora remittances into bonds, SMEs and infrastructure investment to turn them from consumption flows into long-term capital (Citi News Room).
Kenya’s shilling faced growing depreciation pressure as high oil prices widened the current-account deficit and strained foreign reserves (Bloomberg); Treasury cut its revenue target and raised borrowing plans as widening spending pressures and weaker tax collection pushed the fiscal deficit to 6.4% of GDP amid rising debt risk concerns (Bloomberg).
Nigeria: President Tinubu replaced Finance Minister Wale Edun with tax reform lead Taiwo Oyedele in a surprise pre-election reshuffle, leaving the direction of the country’s economic overhaul uncertain (Semafor); Dangote planned to list up to 10% of his refinery on African stock exchanges to help fund a $40B expansion (Bloomberg); Domestic airlines warned they may suspend flights next week as surging jet fuel prices threaten operations (Bloomberg).
Senegal: IMF signaled stronger fiscal progress but delays on new program as it awaits revised debt and macroeconomic data before updating sustainability review (Bloomberg).
Seychelles: The tourism-driven island nation is rapidly becoming a global hub for lightly regulated, high-risk online trading firms, as brokers flock to the Seychelles to offer extreme leverage banned in major markets (Bloomberg).
Zimbabwe: The central bank claimed the ZiG currency is undervalued by about half versus the dollar and is working to rebuild confidence while keeping inflation in single digits (Bloomberg).
Business & Finance in Africa
Rebound, Then Pressure
Source: IMF
The International Monetary Fund says in their April regional economic outlook that sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with its strongest growth in a decade, but that momentum is now being tested by external shocks hitting food, fuel and financing.
What’s happening
Growth reached 4.5% in 2025 and is holding at 4.3% in 2026 despite global turmoil
Inflation cooled, then is ticking back up as war-driven price shocks hit imports
Public debt is easing, falling to 53.1% of GDP, with progress on restructurings
Aid is dropping sharply, down 16% to 28%, tightening already thin buffers
Why it matters
Africa is no longer just stabilizing. It is growing through shocks, but rising costs, shrinking aid and limited fiscal space are testing that resilience. The recovery is real, but fragile. Momentum is there. Execution will decide if it holds.
VC Capital Spreads Wider
Source: Empower Africa via LinkedIn
Empower Africa’s data shows African startups raised $705M across 59 deals in Q1 2026, up 26% year over year, signaling a shift from hype to a more structured, maturing ecosystem.
What’s happening
Egypt ($190M), South Africa ($157M), Kenya ($94M) and Nigeria ($78M) still lead
Capital is spreading to new markets like Senegal ($32M) and Ethiopia ($15M)
Fintech leads with $221M, followed by logistics ($149M) and energy ($141M)
Debt financing is rising, in some cases outpacing equity
Investor base is widening, with new entrants including Japan
Why it matters
According to the article, and in alignment with our analysis, this is a shift from concentration to distribution and discipline. Capital is moving beyond the Big Four, and founders are using more sophisticated financing tools. Africa’s startup market is not just growing but also hopefully maturing and decentralizing.
China in Africa
Yuan Moves In
Source: Atlantic Council
According to an exclusive by Reuters, Ecobank is in discussions with Bank of China to enable yuan-denominated settlements across Africa, signaling a deeper shift in how trade is financed.
What’s happening
Ecobank wants to let African clients settle trade directly in Chinese yuan, bypassing the dollar
Talks reflect growing China-Africa trade volumes and demand for cheaper settlement rails
Would expand yuan usage across Ecobank’s multi-country footprint
Why it matters: This is bigger than a banking partnership.
Dollar dominance gets chipped away at the transaction level
African firms could cut FX costs and volatility tied to USD conversions
China deepens its financial infrastructure footprint, not just physical infrastructure
Bottom line: Africa’s trade rails are quietly shifting. Currency is the next battleground.
Mining in Africa
Gold, Power, Control
Source: ISS African Futures
A relevant piece by ISS African Futures features how Africa produces more than 25% of the world’s gold but holds just 2% of global reserves, exposing a deep gap between resource wealth and financial control.
What’s happening
Ghana leads African production and ranks among the top global producers
Africa holds just 2% of global reserves, while reserves are concentrated across a handful of countries, including the U.S., Germany and others
Most African gold is exported unrefined, limiting value capture
Ghana and Burkina Faso launched refineries in 2024 to retain more value
Zimbabwe introduced a gold-backed currency to stabilize its economy
Central banks, including South Africa’s, are increasing bullion holdings
Why it matters
This is a shift toward monetary sovereignty. Holding gold strengthens currencies, reduces exposure to external shocks and increases leverage in global finance. Africa is trying to turn gold into power, not just exports. Execution and credibility will decide if it works.
Mining’s Missing Women
Source: UNCTAD
A bit of a sad story by the UN Trade and Development: as the global rush for critical minerals accelerates, women remain largely excluded from the upside, making up just 10% to 13% of industrial mining jobs while dominating the lowest-paid, most hazardous roles in artisanal mining, often without training or protection. The graph isn’t clear, but the takeaway is: women are concentrated in manual work and largely missing from leadership. The risk is that as mining becomes more tech-driven, the gap widens. The opportunity is that countries that embed inclusion early can turn the energy transition into a broader economic win.
Explorations in Africa
Source: National Geographic
São Tomé and Príncipe, twin islands perched on the Equator, offer a rare blend of dense rainforest, rich marine life and deeply rooted coastal traditions, earning them the nickname “Africa’s Galápagos.” A recent photo essay from National Geographic photographer Christoffer Åhlén makes me want to visit.
According to the piece, life here moves with the ocean. Fishermen head out at dawn, markets fill by midday and by sunset the rhythm resets. On land, volcanic peaks, waterfalls and colonial-era towns shape a landscape that feels both untouched and lived in.
Why it matters
This is more than a travel story. It’s a snapshot of a place where nature, culture and daily survival remain tightly linked, even as small shifts like girls entering water sports signal social change. São Tomé and Príncipe is an intact reminder of what coastal Africa has looked like for generations.
Thanks for reading. If you are in Accra over the next 2 weeks let me know. And in case you missed it, check out our piece on Power Demand, Weak Supply and email us at [email protected] if you have comments or suggestions.
