Africa is in a familiar moment where progress is real but pressure is rising. In the good news category, food supply has grown far faster than the population over the past 60 years. But the pressure is there: capital exists but does not deploy, tech works but takes time, financial systems are expanding but not consistently and growth is holding up just as external shocks hit. Africa is not short on inputs. The challenge, as always, is execution and staying power.
Figure of the Week
Africa’s food supply has grown 6.2x over the past 60 years while population grew 2.6x, a quiet signal that large-scale systems can work on the continent. Source: Our World in Data
Graphic of the Week
Humanity’s Quiet Win
Source: Our World in Data
Over the past 60 years, the world added 5 billion people and still grew food supply faster than population, even in Africa!
What’s happening:
Globally, food supply rose 3.5x vs population at 2.6x
In Africa, food supply jumped 6.2x vs population at 2.6x
In Asia, 4.4x vs 2.7x
Every continent increased food availability per person
Why it matters: Feeding billions more people while improving supply per person helped push down extreme poverty and hunger. The gains are, of course, uneven. Hunger remains a real issue across parts of Africa. But it looks like we are on track to solve the global supply problem; now we have to solve distribution. Read more: Our World in Data
Source: Our World in Data
What We Are Reading
Africa: Africa Finance Corporation said the continent has $4T in domestic capital but weak systems are preventing it from being deployed into infrastructure and industrial growth at scale (Bloomberg).
Algeria: At least 17 Somali migrants died in the Mediterranean after a boat capsized (AP News).
Chad announced it will send 1,500 troops to Haiti under a UN mission to help combat gang violence and support security operations in Port-au-Prince (AP News).
DR Congo said it is creating a 20,000-strong paramilitary guard backed by U.S. and UAE funding to secure mining sites and boost control over critical minerals amid ongoing eastern conflict (AP News); said it will curb dollar cash use starting April 2027, pushing electronic payments to fight money laundering and rebuild trust in the franc (Bloomberg).
Egypt’s construction boom is accelerating with new multibillion-dollar megaprojects reshaping Cairo and other key regions to drive growth and attract investment (Bloomberg); Nissan announced it is investing $45M to expand its Egypt car production, boosting output and exports across Africa as the country positions itself as a regional manufacturing hub (Bloomberg).
Eswatini: Taiwan’s president postponed a planned visit after several countries withdrew flight permissions under reported Chinese pressure, disrupting his trip to Taiwan’s only African diplomatic ally (AP News).
The Gabonese government said it is auditing public debt from 2016 to 2024 to verify liabilities and restore IMF support after the 2023 coup raised concerns over fiscal transparency (Bloomberg).
Kenya: President Ruto announced he is pushing a $39B infrastructure drive centered on a stalled railway and new financing tools despite debt concerns and political risk ahead of elections (Bloomberg); The shilling is under pressure from rising oil prices and war-driven external shocks, with analysts warning it could weaken further despite central bank support (Bloomberg).
Mali: Al-Qaida-linked militants and separatists launched Mali’s largest coordinated attack in years, exposing worsening insecurity and challenging Russian-backed forces (AP News).
Mauritius: Talks with the UK over control of the Chagos Islands and a key U.S. military base have stalled after U.S. political opposition, leaving Mauritius facing a major budget shortfall (Bloomberg).
Morocco has opened its 820-foot Mohammed VI Tower in Rabat, a $700M rocket-inspired skyscraper signaling the capital’s push to become a cultural and tourism hub. (Bloomberg).
Lesotho announced it is expanding a massive cross-border water project to nearly double exports to South Africa, boosting its revenues and energy security (AP News).
Libya: A UN report said a Libyan armed group helped route Colombian mercenaries, weapons and fuel through Libya to support Sudan’s RSF in the ongoing war (AP News).
South Africa: Karoo Pistachios is scaling up production in the Northern Cape to tap record pistachio prices driven by Iran war supply disruptions and position South Africa as a major exporter (Bloomberg).
South Sudan has blocked humanitarian aid to a conflict-hit community where civilians are starving, as government and opposition trade blame and the crisis deepens (AP News).
Tanzania said at least 518 people died in last year’s post-election unrest, with hundreds more missing, as authorities promise further investigations and reforms (AP News).
Uganda is pushing a sweeping “foreign agents” bill that could force citizens abroad and local groups to register and restrict funding, raising fears it will tighten control over civil society and opposition (AP News).
Zambia: A legal dispute between the government and former president Edgar Lungu’s family over his burial has left his body unburied nearly a year after his death (AP News).
Innovation in Africa
Patience Pays Off
Source: Renew Capital (derived from the UNECA report)
According to a United Nations Economic Commission for Africa report, Africa’s tech story is not broken. Expectations are. While GDP growth on the continent has outpaced global averages between 2000 and 2023, productivity has lagged, with gains driven by more labor, land and capital rather than real efficiency improvements.
The insight: Technology investment delivers nothing statistically significant in year zero, then builds steadily, peaking around years three and four before stabilizing. Translation: many stakeholders expect results too early and pull back too soon.
What actually works:
Industrial activity drives immediate gains
Skills investment looks negative at first, then pays off strongly over time
ICT infrastructure amplifies gains but does not create them alone
R&D struggles without strong links to industry
Credit expansion has little impact when it flows to consumption instead of innovation
What does not: FDI and trade show limited productivity gains, concentrated in extractives and commodities with weak domestic spillovers.
The takeaway: The returns are real and compounding, roughly $8.1B in additional output at year five per one-unit gain in technology readiness, applied to Africa's $3.1T GDP, but only if investments are structured around industry, skills and time. Read more: Economic Report on Africa 2026, U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, Chapter 2
Business & Finance in Africa
No Single Winner
Source: Briter
Briter has a great piece this week: How banks, fintechs and telcos shape Africa’s financial system. The article makes a simple point: Africa’s fintech story is not disruption, it is negotiation. Across Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa, no single player owns the stack. Banks, fintechs and telcos each control a piece, and value and opportunity depend on how they combine.
The structure: Banks hold liquidity and licenses. Fintechs win on product and speed. Telcos bring distribution and reach. The model only works together.
How it plays out:
Nigeria is fragmented, with banks holding margins, fintechs owning experience and telcos losing ground.
Egypt is bank and state-led, limiting fintech upside.
South Africa is mature but opening up after regulatory change.
Kenya remains telco-led, though banks still control high-value services.
The shift: Everyone is converging. Banks are building fintech arms. Fintechs are chasing licenses. Telcos are trying to move beyond payments. According to the article, Africa’s financial system will be assembled by those who can combine liquidity, distribution and trust.
Gains Under Pressure
Source: IMF
Africa Faces Mounting Risks Just as Growth Gains Take Hold is a reminder that the continent did the hard part, just as a new shock hits. We covered the full report last week (Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure), but I like the updated graphics (and the story is encouraging), so here it is again.
Summary: After years of tough reforms, sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with real momentum. Growth hit 4.5%, inflation fell and debt levels started to stabilize. This was not luck. It was policy.
Then the external shock. Rising oil and fertilizer prices, tighter financial conditions and disrupted trade routes are now slowing growth and pushing inflation back up.
The pressure points:
Oil importers face higher costs and weaker trade balances
Food prices could push 20 million more people into food insecurity
Aid is falling sharply, removing a key safety net
Debt stress is rising, with over one-third of countries at risk
At the same time, climate shocks and conflict are compounding the strain.
The tension: Governments are caught between short-term survival and long-term reform. Support households now, but do not undo the policies that created stability.
What holds:
The fundamentals are still there.
Reforms improved fiscal balances, stabilized currencies and created a base for growth.
Regional integration and digital adoption remain long-term levers.
Bottom line: Africa earned this growth. Whether it keeps it will depend on how it manages the next shock.
Explorations in Africa
Atlas Mountain Odyssey
Source: FT
A beautiful Financial Times piece by Finn Beales captures a journey I’d take in a heartbeat. There’s an intrigue about Morocco’s Atlas Mountains. He shows what happens when you answer that pull and leave Marrakech behind.
The noise drops away. The performance fades. What’s left is older, quieter, more honest. Beales takes on the High Atlas Mountain Trail with Unicorn Trails. For six days, it is just horse, trail and altitude. You climb above 3,000 meters on paths shaped by centuries of movement, not tourism.
The days become simple and full:
A shepherd moving goats with music echoing through empty valleys
Long lunches under trees with nothing but wind and sun
The call to prayer drifting up from villages far below
Nights under stars that make the mountains glow
Somewhere along the way, your pace changes. You stop pushing. You start noticing. We could all use a bit more of that. The article’s photos get you partway there.
Thanks for reading. If you are in Accra next week, let me know. And in case you missed it, check out our piece on Births Shift South and email us at [email protected] if you have comments or suggestions.
