The Great Recalibration: From Beijing’s playbook to Zambia’s push for self-reliance, Africa is quietly redrawing the global map. China’s long game is winning—locking in minerals, markets and minds—while the West fumbles with expired trade pacts and short-term fixes. But across the continent, a new current is rising: self-driven growth, pragmatic leadership and power that starts from within.

I hope this week’s Brief connects some dots—from China’s century-defining strategy to Zambia’s tough-love economics, Côte d’Ivoire’s test of democracy and Africa’s enduring power question. The race for influence continues—and Africa’s not waiting.

Africa Trivia 

Which African film won the Freedom Prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival’s Un Certain Regard section?

A) Banel & Adama (Senegal)
B) Goodbye Julia (Sudan)
C) Four Daughters (Tunisia)
D) Mami Wata (Nigeria)

Graphic of the Week

The Beijing Advantage

We often mention China’s growing influence in Africa topic by topic, but this article my dad sent by Joel Kotkin and Bheki Mahlobo (spiked, Sept. 2025) nicely pulls some threads together. It shows how China is beating the West in Africa, and where there is still opportunity to regain ground.

The Play

As we know, China is executing a beautiful strategy—locking in minerals, farmland and influence, among other things, while the West drifts. With 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies and 60% of global uncultivated farmland, Africa is the century’s growth engine—and Beijing is already in the driver’s seat.

• Trade: China-Africa trade surged from $200B in 2013 to $295B in 2024, while U.S.-Africa trade collapsed—from $93B in 2011 to just $37B in 2021.

• Investment: China’s Belt and Road poured $206B (2013–2021) into African infrastructure; the U.S. provided $23B over the same period.

• Diplomacy: China expanded to 65 embassies across Africa (up 62%), overtaking America’s 56, as Washington closed 24% of its missions.

• Resources: Beijing has locked up cobalt (DRC), platinum and chromium (South Africa) and gas fields from Mozambique to Libya.

• Soft power: China now trains thousands of African journalists and funds 37 media bureaus, filling the vacuum left by the BBC and VOA.

The backlash: Beijing’s promises are souring. Debt distress is rising—China is now the biggest creditor in more than 50 developing countries. African labor is often sidelined for imported Chinese workers, and Beijing’s model of control contrasts with Africa’s youthful, democratic aspirations. Meanwhile, China’s home front is faltering—slowing growth, aging population and a property bubble.

The opening: The West still holds real leverage. Africa’s 350 million-strong diaspora, cultural and linguistic ties and an appetite for open markets. But it’s losing by neglect, not necessity.

The fix, according to Joel and Bheki: 

• Invest, don’t aid: Compete head-on with financing for energy, logistics and SMEs.

• Be pragmatic: Support Africa’s path to industrialization—including fossil fuels where needed.

• Engage people: Expand visas, education and startup partnerships that deepen long-term ties.

Why it matters: According to the authors (and I agree), Africa needs to be today’s focus. Re-engaging now could restore Western influence, strengthen democracies and unlock the century’s most strategic partnerships.

Read more: “China’s Scramble for Africa,” spiked.

What We Are Reading

• Africa: The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired this week after Congress failed to renew it, threatening jobs and exports across sub-Saharan Africa (Washington Post).

• Burkina Faso: The military government arrested eight aid workers from the Dutch group International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO) on spying charges, which the group denied while calling for their release (Al Jazeera).

• Burundi: Once the world’s poorest nation, Burundi is courting investors to rebuild its shattered economy. Despite President Ndayishimiye’s promises of reform, corruption, 40% inflation and deep hunger still define daily life for millions (FT).

• Cabo Verde: The island nation is one win away from qualifying for its first-ever World Cup, marking a major milestone for the small West African country (The Independent).

• Cameroon: President Biya, 92, seeks an eighth term despite public and family calls to step down (Reuters).

• Chad: The parliament has fast-tracked a plan to remove presidential term limits, allowing presidents to serve unlimited seven-year terms, sparking opposition concerns (RFI).

• Egypt: UNESCO’s board selected former tourism and antiquities minister Khaled El-Enany as director general (Reuters).

• Ethiopia: Ethiopian Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays but moved ahead with new $10B airport plans to expand capacity to 110 million passengers by 2029 (Bloomberg); Dangote launched a $2.5B fertilizer plant in partnership with Ethiopian Investment Holdings to make the country Africa’s fertilizer hub and boost food security (Business Insider Africa). 

• Eswatini: The Trump administration sent another group of third-country deportees to Eswatini, sparking legal and human rights challenges (Reuters).

• Kenya: The central bank cut its benchmark rate to 9.25% to boost lending and support economic recovery amid stable inflation (The Kenyan Wall Street); The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) launched a Banking Sector Index on October 1 to track listed banks and fuel new investor products (The Kenyan Wall Street). 

• Madagascar: President Rajoelina appointed Army General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo as prime minister amid ongoing protests over power and water shortages (Reuters).

• Malawi: President Mutharika, 85, was sworn in for a second term as president, vowing to fight corruption and fix the struggling economy after defeating Lazarus Chakwera (Reuters).

• Mali: Al-Qaida-linked militants have blocked fuel imports to Bamako, causing severe shortages and economic disruption (AP News).

• Mozambique: Sweden reaffirmed support for the EU military mission to train Mozambican forces and boost security in Cabo Delgado (360 Mozambique).

• Niger: The African Development Bank Group signed a $145M deal to expand energy access, boost renewable power and strengthen economic competitiveness (AfDB).

• Nigeria tripled capital gains tax for foreign equity investors to 30% starting in January, a move that triggered sell-offs in a stock market up nearly 40% this year (Bloomberg); Meta reached a $33M settlement with the Data Protection Commission over privacy violations (Semafor); Nigeria is negotiating a $2B loan from China’s Export-Import Bank to build a new super grid aimed at reducing chronic power shortages (Bloomberg).

• Rwanda announced plans to install its first dedicated Starlink gateway by the end of 2025 as part of a nationwide satellite internet expansion (Tech Africa News).

• Sudan: The International Criminal Court in The Hague found Janjaweed leader Ali Kushayb guilty of 27 war crimes—two decades after the atrocities in Darfur (AP News).

• Tanzania: Opposition leader Tundu Lissu went on trial for treason weeks before the October 29 election; his CHADEMA party was barred from contesting (Reuters).

• West Africa: Global cocoa prices fell to a 20-month low, halving from last year’s record highs as demand dropped, weather improved and West African farmers boosted output (FT).

• Zambia: President Hichilema said U.S. aid cuts were “long overdue,” arguing they will push African nations to become more self-reliant despite the short-term pain (Financial Times).

Democracy in Africa

Interview: From Apartheid to Africa’s Future

Source: We Made it in America (YouTube Channel)

We love context at The Africa Brief—and this interview with Colin Coleman, a longtime supporter of the Brief, delivers it brilliantly. If you have a few minutes, you must click and watch or listen to Colin’s personal story of living through—and helping shape—the negotiations that ended apartheid in South Africa.

Colin’s journey bridges activism, finance and Africa’s future. Once a student leader during apartheid, he later negotiated South Africa’s first democratic elections—working between Nelson Mandela and Henry Kissinger—before leading Goldman Sachs sub-Saharan Africa.

Now a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Yale and INSEAD lecturer, Colin brings decades of insight into politics, finance and leadership to one big question: What’s next for Africa’s growth story?

In this conversation with Imade Iyamu, he reflects on South Africa’s transformation, the role of the diaspora, and why investors should see Africa not as a risk—but as the opportunity of the century. A couple of my favorite challenges from the interview: 

“I think the best thing people can do is act in their own interests and be ruthless in their pursuit of opportunities for themselves and their communities.” 

“The Chinese are good example in a way…what the Chinese are doing is opening markets…”

Thank you, Colin! Watch the full episode on YouTube. Follow Colin on LinkedIn.

Self-Reliance Rising

I love this! Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema told the Financial Times that the closure of USAID and cuts to foreign aid are “long overdue,” saying they’ll force the country to “stand on our own feet.”

What happened: Washington’s exit leaves a gap—U.S. aid once covered a third of Zambia’s health budget, much of it for HIV and maternal care. Hichilema admits the cuts are painful but says they’ll push Zambia to grow its economy, raise revenues, and curb graft. His government has boosted health spending by 13%, increased drug funding by 30% and is reviving the mining sector with billions in new investment.

Why it matters: President Hichilema’s stance echoes a wider African sentiment: less dependency, more discipline. As global donors retreat and trade wars rage, Zambia’s message is clear—aid isn’t strategy; growth is. Read more: FT

Côte d’Ivoire’s Iron Lady

Continuing on the complex theme of democracy in Africa…For those looking for context ahead of the October 25 election in Côte d’Ivoire, read the BBC’s fascinating profile of Simone Gbagbo, the country’s former first lady turned presidential candidate.

Once dubbed the nation’s “Iron Lady,” Gbagbo went from hiding in a bunker during the 2011 crisis to launching her own party. At 76, she’s one of the few women to seek the presidency—and a complex symbol of Côte d’Ivoire’s long, complicated dance with democracy. Read more: BBC. Côte d’Ivoire, we are all hoping for peace.

U.S. in Africa

​​AGOA Ends, Africa Shifts

Former U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe, Charles A. Ray, did a sharp piece for the Foreign Policy Research Institute on what few noticed amid Washington’s shutdown drama: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) quietly expired September 30 after 25 years.

What happened: The Clinton-era pact gave 30+ African nations duty-free U.S. access, fueling jobs in textiles, autos and agriculture. Despite bipartisan backing and Trump administration support for a one-year extension, Congress failed to act. The fallout is swift: tariffs up to 47%, 1.3 million jobs at risk across Kenya, South Africa, Lesotho and Madagascar.

Why it matters: Ray warns the lapse exposes America’s drifting Africa strategy. As mentioned in our Graphic of the Week section, China-Africa trade ($295B) dwarfs U.S. flows (~$8B). With AfCFTA rising, African nations are pivoting regional and deepening ties with China, India and the EU.

The takeaway: Without a partner-focused reset, Washington seems to be showing up late to Africa’s table—again. Source: Foreign Policy Research Institute

Wall Street Meets DFC

In other news that I hope will have some positive impact in Africa, the U.S. Senate confirmed Ben Black, son of billionaire Leon Black, to lead the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC)—a $60B agency central to President Trump’s global initiatives. Black aims to link Wall Street with U.S. development finance, exploring a New York office and pursuing larger private-sector deals, while pledging not to “crowd out private capital.” Read more: Bloomberg.

Tech & Society in Africa

Powering Real Growth

Africa still has 600 million people without electricity—the same as 15 years ago. The Financial Times reports that despite billions pledged, access has barely budged.

What happened: The World Bank and African Development Bank launched a $90B “Mission 300” plan to connect 300 million Africans by 2030. But critics like economist Moussa Blimpo say the effort puts the cart before the horse—bringing electricity to people who can’t afford it risks unsustainable subsidies and debt. He argues instead for cheaper, more reliable power to drive business growth and jobs, which would then make electricity affordable.

Why it matters: The debate exposes a deeper development dilemma: should aid power homes or economies first? As Kenya’s Ken Opalo notes, micro-entrepreneurship alone won’t lift Africa—productive, large-scale energy use will.

The takeaway: True electrification starts with economic sparks, not solar panels. Read more: FT

Explorations in Africa

Legacy in the Forest

This week, it’s fitting to honor the beautiful life of Jane Goodall, the British primatologist who died on October 1 at 91. As The Washington Post wrote, “her work forever changed how the world sees Africa—and ourselves.”

Goodall wasn’t just an observer; she was a bridge. In Tanzania’s Gombe forest, she watched chimpanzees not as specimens but as individuals—with tools, tempers and tenderness. Her patient, empathetic approach reshaped science and inspired conservation movements across the continent. Her message endures: protect the planet by empowering its people.

For her, it was never about fame—or even Africa. “It was always about the chimps.”

Her legacy runs deep. No matter your sector, we can all learn something from the life of the woman who, as many say, “redefined man.” 

Africa Trivia Answer

Answer: B) Goodbye Julia — Source: Mad Films

Source: YouTube

Missed last week’s Brief? Check out our take on the rise of fiscal rules. We hope the Africa Brief adds value to your day! Please share it and send content ideas or feedback to [email protected]. We love hearing from you. Signing out from Ghana…

See you next week!