Africa is absorbing some strong global shockwaves these days. The Middle East conflict is pressuring fuel-importing economies, global imbalances are tightening financing conditions and China’s economic reach is increasingly colliding with geopolitics across the continent. But in Kigali this week, the mood at the Africa CEO Forum is less about crisis and more about scale. Let’s jump in.
Figure of the Week
African sovereigns now spend 17% of government revenues on interest payments versus a global median of 5.5%. Source: S&P Global
Graphic of the Week
Oil Importers and Exporters
Source: IMF
The IMF says the Middle East conflict is creating a highly uneven global impact, with many African economies among the most vulnerable because they import large amounts of oil but have limited fiscal room to absorb rising costs.
Why it matters: Everyone is watching closely because higher energy prices can quickly spill into inflation, currency pressure and debt stress across import-dependent economies, especially those with weaker credit ratings.
What We Are Reading
Botswana: Former President Festus Mogae, credited with strong governance and leading HIV/AIDS reforms, has died at 86, prompting three days of national mourning (Reuters).
Central African Republic: Former PM Anicet Georges Dologuélé accused authorities of abuse of power after officials confiscated his passport and blocked him from travel (AP).
Congo-Brazzaville is seeking a new IMF program to support reforms and economic diversification after completing its previous loan deal (Reuters).
Côte d'Ivoire dissolved its electoral commission after years of criticism over its independence and handling of disputed elections, including the 2025 vote that secured President Alassane Ouattara a fourth term (Reuters).
Mauritius: The government launched a golden visa program targeting 100 high-net-worth investors a year to attract $1M minimum investments into key sectors like tech and energy (Bloomberg).
Mali: Militant attacks by a group called JNIM in central Mali killed several, highlighting the junta’s worsening security crisis despite Russian backing (AP).
Morocco recovered the body of one missing American soldier after the African Lion military exercises, while search efforts continue for a second soldier (AP).
Nigeria: The new finance minister ruled out subsidies and price controls, pledging to continue market reforms to reassure investors (Bloomberg).
Senegal: President Faye is leading IMF talks to address a debt crisis and rising energy-cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict (Reuters).
Somalia: The UN World Food Programme warned of a worsening malnutrition crisis affecting millions, saying aid cuts and funding shortages could force it to suspend food assistance from July (Reuters).
South Africa: Several African governments warned citizens in South Africa to stay cautious amid rising xenophobic attacks targeting migrants, as pressure grows on Pretoria to respond to anti-immigrant violence and unrest (Reuters); The U.S. and South Africa held early talks on potential mining, energy and infrastructure deals aimed at expanding cooperation on critical minerals and reducing dependence on China (FT).
Tanzania: A housing experiment found that better-designed rural homes significantly reduced childhood illness and stunting compared with traditional housing (FT).
Uganda: Lawmakers passed a bill imposing penalties on individuals and organizations receiving unauthorized foreign funding, targeting opposition groups (Bloomberg); President Museveni has been sworn in for a seventh term after 40 years in power, with growing attention on a possible succession by his son, army chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba (AP News).
Zimbabwe: The government has begun trials of blending ethanol with diesel to reduce fuel costs driven by global energy price spikes (Bloomberg).
Business & Finance in Africa
Africa’s Growth Leaders
Source: FT
The FT’s latest ranking of Africa’s fastest-growing companies shows South Africa still dominates the continent’s startup and scale-up landscape, while Kenya leapfrogged Nigeria into second place and an Egyptian fintech took the top spot for the first time.
The numbers:
South Africa placed 51 companies in the top 130
Kenya ranked second with 17 companies, ahead of Nigeria’s 16
Fintech, software and IT firms made up nearly 40% of the list
What’s driving it:
South Africa benefited from a more stable currency, easing power cuts and improving infrastructure, while Nigeria’s sharp naira devaluation hurt dollar-based revenue growth rankings.
Egyptian fintech Thndr topped the list after reaching roughly 1 million active users with low-cost retail investing products.
Africa’s fastest-growing companies are increasingly concentrated in markets with improving infrastructure, more stable macro conditions and deeper capital ecosystems.
Sovereigns Under Stress
Source: S&P Global
An S&P Global article this week is chock-full of interesting graphics showing how the Middle East conflict is pressuring African sovereign credit markets through higher energy prices, inflation and tighter financing conditions. Africa’s recent sovereign credit recovery is now under pressure. Most rated African economies are net fuel importers, just as oil prices surge and refinancing costs remain elevated.
The numbers:
Brent oil prices are up 50% year to date
African sovereigns already spend 17% of revenues on interest payments versus a global median of 5.5%
More than 75% of rated African sovereigns are net importers of fuel and fertilizer
Most exposed: Egypt, Senegal, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda face rising import costs, fiscal strain and external financing pressure. DRC and Zambia also face risks from disruptions to Middle East sulfur supplies used in copper and cobalt production.
China in Africa
China’s Quiet Leverage
Source: Bloomberg
According to a Bloomberg article this week, a canceled digital rights conference in Zambia is reigniting debate over how China’s growing economic influence may shape political decisions across Africa, particularly on issues tied to Taiwan. RightsCon, the world’s leading digital rights summit, was canceled days before it was set to begin in Lusaka. Zambia cited “national values.” Organizers say officials privately pointed to pressure from China over the participation of Taiwanese activists.
The numbers tell an interesting story:
Zambia owes more than $4B to China Exim, its largest creditor
A new $1.5B infrastructure deal with a Chinese state-linked firm was signed days before the cancellation
The conference venue itself was upgraded with Chinese government financing
The bigger picture:
The incident reflects a broader geopolitical pattern as Beijing works to narrow Taiwan’s international space. African governments are increasingly navigating the tension between economic dependence on China and political autonomy. Governments deeply tied to Chinese financing and trade may begin adjusting behavior preemptively to avoid crossing Beijing’s red lines. Africa’s challenge is no longer whether to engage China. It is how to maintain strategic independence while doing so.
Macro Pressures Build
Source: IMF
In a recent policy paper, the IMF says global economic imbalances are widening again, driven by rising U.S. deficits and weak domestic demand in China. For Africa, the fallout will likely mean higher borrowing costs, weaker commodity demand and more fiscal pressure.
The big picture:
Many African economies rely heavily on commodity exports and external financing, making them especially exposed to shifts in global capital flows, interest rates and trade demand. The IMF argues tariffs and narrow industrial policies do little to solve these imbalances. Durable adjustment requires coordinated fiscal and structural reforms across major economies, particularly the U.S. and China.
Explorations in Africa
Algiers Layers Deep
Source: National Geographic
A new travel feature captures Algiers as one of the Mediterranean’s most layered cities, where Phoenician, Roman, Ottoman and French influences still shape daily life.
The background:
The 10th-century Casbah remains the cultural heart of the city, packed with markets, workshops and independence-era history
Roman ruins and amphitheaters stretch along the coast outside Algiers in Tipaza and Cherchell
French-style cafe culture still defines much of the capital’s rhythm
Why it matters: The piece highlights a side of North Africa often overlooked: a city where Mediterranean cafe culture, anti-colonial memory and ancient history all exist side by side. According to the article, Algiers feels less like one city and more like several civilizations layered into a single coastline.
Thanks for reading. If you are in Kigali next week, let me know. And in case you missed it, check out our piece on A Shock Tested Africa and email us at [email protected].
