Africa is building from within. Investment is rising, developers are scaling and networks now reach almost everyone. But beneath the momentum are deeper constraints around affordability, infrastructure and execution. This week’s brief looks at the tension between progress and reality.
Figure of the Week
Sub-Saharan Africa generates ~231 million tons of waste annually, of which only ~31% is collected and just ~5% is properly landfilled. Source: World Bank.
Graphic of the Week
Developers Drive The Future
Source: BCG
A new Boston Consulting Group report makes a simple but powerful point: in the age of AI, developers are critical.
Africa has ~4.7 million developers, far behind Asia and the West
But it is growing fastest globally at ~21% annually
Countries like Kenya, Morocco and Tunisia are emerging as tech hubs
Countries with more developers are better positioned to shape, produce and control technology
Africa’s Position
Still lags in absolute numbers
But has fast-growing talent pools and rising coding culture
Growth is driven by policy, education and ecosystems, not just population
The AI Layer
~14% of African developers specialize in AI, ML or data science
Concentrated in North Africa and Kenya
Linked to strong universities and research systems
Source: BCG
What We Are Reading
African countries are tightening export controls on battery metals to force local processing, disrupting Chinese supply chains and accelerating a shift toward resource nationalism (Bloomberg); British International Investment and Deutsche Bank launched $150M trade finance program to boost lending in underserved African markets (Empower Africa).
Algeria: Iran war boosted European demand for Algerian gas as Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut global LNG flows (Bloomberg).
Angola approved national startup law to boost its digital ecosystem and support tech-driven enterprises (Startup Researcher); The government raised $2.5B in dollar bonds as higher oil prices from the Iran war boosted investor demand for its debt (Bloomberg).
Benin: Presidential candidate pledged municipal police in northern towns to fight jihadist attacks (Reuters).
Chad relocated 2,300 Sudanese refugees as army prepares border deployment after cross-border attacks (Reuters).
DR Congo and Rwanda agreed on steps to de-escalate tensions and advance the Washington Accords for peace and prosperity (U.S. Govt).
Eswatini: U.S. third-country deportee held five months in maximum-security prison, released for repatriation to Cambodia (AP News)
Equatorial Guinea released reprocessed offshore seismic data to support exploration ahead of EG Ronda 2026 licensing round (World Oil).
The Ghanaian parliament approved the first lithium mine, allowing Atlantic Lithium to pay royalties tied to market prices (Bloomberg).
Ivory Coast launched EMY 101 AI chatbot to simplify access to public services via WhatsApp and Messenger (Tech News Africa).
Kenya: Safaricom to mask M-PESA phone numbers by the end of 2026 to improve privacy and reduce fraud (Tech Cabal); Floods from two overflowing rivers killed 88, displaced over 34,000 and damaged farms and infrastructure (AP News).
Libya’s El Feel oilfield has been shut since Thursday after its pipeline was rerouted to compensate for fire damage at the Sharara field, with production expected to resume within 7 to 10 days (Reuters).
Madagascar: Military leader to screen government minister candidates with lie detector tests to identify corruption (AP News).
Mozambique: Central bank paused record rate cuts at 9.25% amid rising debt and Iran war risks (Bloomberg); World Bank warned that debt strain and fiscal mismanagement risk putting more than $50B in LNG projects at risk in the world’s second-poorest nation, crowding out public spending and deepening economic instability (Bloomberg).
Namibia has denied Starlink a telecom license and spectrum access, highlighting ongoing regulatory resistance to satellite internet expansion in parts of Africa (Reuters).
Nigeria: Aliko Dangote’s refinery announced it is receiving high demand from African governments as the Iran war disrupts fuel supply (Bloomberg); The U.S. has deployed 200 troops and MQ-9 drones to Nigeria to provide training and intelligence support against Islamist militants, while strictly avoiding direct combat or airstrikes (Reuters).
Senegal defended its undisclosed $753M swap-based borrowing in 2025, arguing it secured cheaper financing and was transparent, even as investors and the IMF raise concerns about opacity and debt risks (FT).
South Africa: Regulators considered easing telecom merger rules to attract 5G and AI investment (Semafor).
Zimbabwe: Former finance minister Tendai Biti was released on $500 bail after opposing constitutional amendments extending the president’s rule (AP News).
Business & Finance in Africa
Africa Means Business
Source: The Economist
Foreign investors are returning, drawn by critical minerals, infrastructure gains and demographic momentum
At the same time, African capital is stepping up. Business leaders and institutions are deploying money at home, not parking it abroad
Africa remains undercapitalized: 20% of the world’s population but just 3% of GDP and 2% of trade
It attracts less than 1% of global private capital, even as financing needs run into the hundreds of billions annually
What’s Changing
Infrastructure improvements and policy shifts like AfCFTA are making projects more bankable
Markets are responding. Bond issuance is rising, stock markets have hit highs and FDI, VC and M&A flows are all picking up
African institutional capital is beginning to move, with pension funds and sovereign vehicles allocating locally
The Real Shift
This is not just more investment, it is who is investing
Nearly half of venture capital now comes from African investors
Local capital is increasingly leading and crowding in global capital, not the other way around
Bottom line: Africa is not waiting to be funded. It is starting to fund itself and that is starting to change everything.
Tech in Africa
Phones Could Unlock Africa
Source: GSMA
Yinka Adegoke’s piece in Semafor this week brought me back to the core tension we discussed a month ago related to Africa’s digital story: the gap between infrastructure and actual access.
According to a GSMA report, mobile broadband now reaches roughly 95% of the population, yet only about 40% of Africans are actually online. The gap is not about towers. It is about affordability.
The push for a $40 smartphone is an attempt to close it, but the GSMA data makes clear the problem runs deeper. Smartphones still cost a meaningful share of monthly income across much of Africa and policy is often making that worse.
Source: GSMA
In Egypt, a 38.5% import tax on mobile phones has pushed device prices higher. In Mali, governments have raised telecom service taxes, mobile operator levies and mobile money fees, increasing the cost of both owning and using a device. The result is a familiar pattern. Infrastructure expands. Coverage improves. But millions remain offline because the last mile is priced out.
This matters because the phone is not just a device. It is the entry point to payments, agriculture, health, logistics and government services. No phone means no real participation in the digital economy.
Agriculture in Africa
Caught In Fertilizer Crunch
Source: Bloomberg
The global fertilizer market is tightening fast and Africa is right in the middle of it. According to Bloomberg, the Middle East supply shock is rippling outward, pushing prices higher and forcing countries to scramble for access just as planting season begins.
Supply Chain Facts:
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has halted key flows
Middle East supplies >⅓ of global urea and ~¼ of ammonia
~50% of the sulfur trade also passes through the corridor
Urea prices are now at a 3-year high
“Everyone is on the hunt…” with Russia and China tightening exports
Africa’s Double Edge
Import-dependent markets face shortages and delays
Producers like Morocco and Dangote (Nigeria) are seeing demand surge
West Africa is increasingly worried about cocoa and cotton output
Risk of tens of millions facing food insecurity if disruption holds
Waste Management in Africa
Africa’s Waste Tipping Point
Source: World Bank
As you might imagine, Africa does not produce the most waste when compared globally. It just cannot handle what it produces. A new World Bank report shows a system already under strain and heading toward the fastest growth globally. Sub-Saharan Africa generated 231 million tons of waste in 2022, only about 9% of the global total.
According to the report:
Only 31% of waste in Africa actually gets collected and in rural areas, that drops to just 6%.
That leaves about 160 million tons a year uncollected, much of it is burned or dumped in the open.
Only 5% ends up in proper sanitary landfills and recycling is just ~2%, among the lowest globally.
Explorations in Africa
Into The Rainforest
Source: National Geographic
With Denis Sassou Nguesso set to remain in power after the March 2026 election in Congo Brazzaville, a recent National Geographic feature takes you inside the “lungs of Africa,” capturing Odzala-Kokoua National Park in striking detail.
Deep in the green: The park is one of Africa’s oldest and covers approximately 5,250 square miles, which is roughly the size of Connecticut. It is one of the largest protected rainforest parks in Africa and the landscapes span rainforest, swamp, savannah and include baï clearings, which are mineral-rich forest clearings where wildlife gathers. Animals include forest elephants, western lowland gorillas and 400+ bird species
If you go, know it is among Africa’s least-visited parks and is tightly controlled by a single operator, Kamba African Rainforest Experiences. There are three lodges across different ecosystems and visitors experience walking safaris, river trips and gorilla tracking.
Thanks for reading. In case you missed it, check out our piece on Debt Turns Inward and email us at [email protected] if you have comments or suggestions.
