Africa Shifts Gears - The continent is changing how it finances, builds and governs. Debt is moving local, crypto is getting rules and global powers are quietly laying new rails. The opportunity is real, but so are the trade-offs.
Figure of the Week
More than 50% of public debt in sub-Saharan Africa is now domestic, marking a structural shift away from foreign borrowing. Source: IMF
Graphic of the Week
Debt Turns Inward
Source: IMF
The International Monetary Fund this month published “The New Face of African Debt,” showing how the continent is reshaping how it borrows. According to the research, governments are moving from foreign loans to domestic debt in local currency. More than half of public debt in sub-Saharan Africa is now raised at home with the pivot accelerated after global markets shut in 2022.
The upside
Reduces exposure to currency shocks and volatile foreign investors
Builds local capital markets and tools like yield curves
Supports private sector growth over time
The pressure points
Short-term debt raises rollover risk
Borrowing costs are higher, around 8.8%
Banks pile into government debt, crowding out businesses
Rising sovereign-bank loop ties financial systems more tightly to government stability
Bottom line
Africa is gaining control of its debt, but concentrating the risk closer to home.
Source: IMF
What We Are Reading
Africa: Absa is accelerating expansion across Africa, targeting faster-growing markets like Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia as it looks beyond South Africa for growth (Reuters).
Burundi signed AI minerals exploration deal with KoBold Metals and Lifezone Metals to attract investment and identify critical resources (Business Insider Africa).
Djibouti banned after-the-fact shipping fees as Red Sea and Gulf disruptions threaten Ethiopia’s trade lifeline, which depends on the port for more than 95% of its commerce (Addis Standard).
DR Congo: A Belgian court announced it will try a 93-year-old former diplomat over his alleged role in the 1961 killing of Patrice Lumumba, DRC’s first prime minister, marking a long-delayed reckoning with Belgium’s colonial past (BBC Africa)
Guinea: World’s top bauxite producer planned to limit ore exports to stabilize prices (Bloomberg).
Kenya agreed with Russia to stop recruiting its citizens to fight in the war in Ukraine after public backlash over rising enlistments (Reuters).
Libya: A pipeline leak caused a fire at the Sharara oil field but production continues with flows redirected to limit losses (Bloomberg).
Morocco: The Confederation of African Football has overturned the AFCON results and awarded Morocco a victory after ruling Senegal forfeited by walking off in protest (BBC Africa); The central bank kept the benchmark rate at 2.25%, expects stable inflation and stronger 2026 growth after good harvests (Reuters).
Namibia planned for a large green hydrogen project in Tsau ǁKhaeb National Park, raising hopes for jobs but threatening African penguins and unique ecosystems (BBC Africa).
Nigeria: Regulators reviewed free-float rules to boost stock market liquidity and attract investors (Bloomberg); Investors rushed to lend in naira as central bank reforms boost bond yields, while private credit grows to fund businesses (FT); Nigeria faced a worsening, multi-front security crisis that has killed nearly 30,000 people in three years as overstretched forces struggle to contain insurgents, bandits and communal violence (FT).
Senegal: Rapid regional borrowing eased debt pressure but delayed restructuring talks (Bloomberg); Senegal’s government said major irregularities at a foreign-run phosphate company cost the state nearly $1.9B, as it renegotiates contracts and revokes licenses to regain control of key resources (France 24).
South Africa’s inflation expectations edged down to 3.6%, offering brief relief to policymakers even as rising oil prices and currency pressure from the Iran war cloud the outlook (Bloomberg); The government deployed 2,200 soldiers to support police against gangs and illegal miners in five provinces under Operation Prosper (Bloomberg).
Somalia: Puntland forces continued fighting the Islamic State in the al-Miskad mountains to dismantle militant bases and capture fighters (BBC Africa); Somalia’s South West state has cut ties with the federal government, accusing Mogadishu of interference and deepening fractures in the country’s already fragile federal system(Reuters).
Zimbabwe advanced export bans on lithium and other minerals to boost local processing and value addition, pressuring Chinese supply chains (South China Morning Post).
Geopolitics in Africa
Digital Currency Race
Source: The African Exponent
I know this article in Cryptonite Weekly Rap is not technically on Africa, but it IS, because the race to control digital money will likely be decided in markets like we see across Africa.
“I believe the biggest geopolitical risk for the world—outside the nuclear race between the U.S., China, and Russia—is who gets their digital currency into the hands of the unbanked and citizens in countries with failing currencies first.”
What’s happening
China’s e-CNY has processed about $2.4T across 3.4 billion transactions since the pilot launch in 2020.
On January 1, 2026, China made it interest-bearing, accelerating adoption
Beijing pairing strict crypto bans with global expansion via Hong Kong
Meanwhile, Africa is seeing early yuan traction:
Why it matters
The real race is to reach the unbanked and weak-currency markets first
Africa is a prime battleground for next-gen financial rails
China is building both currency (e-CNY) and infrastructure (trade, loans, payments)
Raises trade-off between financial inclusion and state surveillance
Bottom line
China isn’t rolling out e-CNY in Africa yet, but it is building the system that could win Africa’s wallets first.
China in Africa
Eyes on Africa
Source: Semafor
Semafor featured an article this week showing how Africa’s cities are quietly wiring themselves with Chinese-built surveillance systems.
More than $2B spent across 11 countries on facial recognition and vehicle tracking
Nigeria leads with about $470M in AI-enabled monitoring systems
Deals often bundled with Chinese loans tied to Huawei, ZTE and Hikvision
Why it matters
Fast-tracks “smart city” infrastructure across major urban centers
Deepens China’s footprint in Africa’s digital backbone
Raises stakes on data control, privacy and long-term dependence
Business & Finance in Africa
Kenya Leads on Crypto Rules
By Matthew Davis of Renew Capital
Source: Generated by Renew Capital
This week, Kenya’s National Treasury published draft VASP Regulations 2026, covering licensing for exchanges, wallet providers and brokers, open for comment until April 10. Kenya went from Financial Action Task Force grey-listed pariah in February 2024 to publishing one of Africa’s most comprehensive crypto rulebooks in about 14 months.
Earlier, it repealed a blunt 3% tax on gross transaction value, which had pushed activity underground, and replaced it with a 10% tax on platform fees, cutting the effective burden on traders by more than 96%. The VASP Act, signed in October 2025, formalized the shift toward licensing and oversight.
Why it matters
Sub-Saharan Africa’s on-chain crypto volume hit $205B, up 52%, making it one of the fastest-growing regions globally. The key shift: tax the industry, not the transaction.
Bottom line: External pressure forced the pivot, but Kenya may now be setting the model for crypto regulation in Africa.
Infrastructure in Africa
Roads Remake Africa
Source: EHS Africa Logistics
The team found this highway map and, I have to admit, I’m a sucker for maps. Africa’s Trans-African Highway Network, first proposed in 1971, has now seen more than half of its nearly 60,000 km paved, with one major corridor complete and several others progressing, highlighting steady but still incomplete progress toward continent-wide trade connectivity.
Explorations in Africa
Mauritania Back Online
Source: The Times
With new AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah putting Mauritania into our collective psyche, I was interested to see this piece in The Times positioning the country as 2026’s next frontier destination. After years sidelined by jihadist-linked insecurity that collapsed its tourism sector in the late 2000s, Mauritania is reopening with new flights, e-visas and expanded safe travel zones, revealing a vast, largely untouched Sahara landscape, beautiful oases, ancient caravan cities and a tourism play built on raw adventure, deep culture and near-zero crowds.
According to the article, here are a few things to know:
90% desert. One of the world’s least-visited countries, now reopening
Adrar region anchors tourism: dunes, canyons, oases, UNESCO cities
Signature experience: the Iron Ore Train across the Sahara
Culture runs deep: nomadic life, tea rituals, strong hospitality norms
Best for: serious, high-end adventure travelers, not mass tourism
Thanks for reading. In case you missed it, check out our piece on Africa's fuel shock. Email us at [email protected] if you have comments or suggestions.
