Fuel, money and fintech scale. Oil shocks are rippling through Africa’s economies, diaspora dollars are quietly rivaling foreign investment and a new fintech passport could start stitching together the continent’s fragmented regulatory markets. Read on, my fellow Africans and Africanites.
Figure of the Week
African diaspora remittances are around $100B annually, making them one of the continent’s largest sources of external finance. Source: Africa News Agency.
Graphic of the Week
Africa’s Fuel Shock
Source: Zero Carbon Analytics
If you eavesdrop on conversations this week in the streets of Accra, Joburg or Addis Ababa, you’ll likely hear folks lamenting the rising price of fuel. The Iran war has sent global energy markets into turmoil. Oil has surged to around $120 per barrel, in what some analysts call the biggest energy shock since the 1970s. For sub-Saharan Africa, which imports most of its fuel, the impact is immediate.
Where it hits hardest
Countries with high import dependence and low reserves face the greatest pressure.
Landlocked Sahel states such as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are especially exposed because fuel must travel long supply routes through neighboring countries.
Security risks already disrupt these convoys. A militant fuel blockade recently crippled fuel supply into Bamako.
The ripple effects
Higher oil prices quickly raise transport, food and electricity costs across the continent.
Weak currencies then amplify the shock, making imports even more expensive.
Governments with limited reserves face rising pressure on budgets, inflation and interest rates.
Bottom line: When global oil spikes, Africa feels it fast. Import dependence means the shock travels straight from global energy markets to the pump and then through the entire economy.
Read more: WSJ, Semafor, Zero Carbon Analytics.
Source: Semafor
What We Are Reading
Africa: Iran war drove oil prices up, raising fuel costs, inflation and currency pressures across import-dependent economies (AP News); Cocoa farmers in Ghana and Ivory Coast struggled with unpaid debts and low prices as global chocolate demand falls (BBC Africa).
Congo-Brazzaville: Longtime president Denis Sassou Nguesso is expected to extend his decades-long rule in upcoming elections amid limited opposition competition (Reuters).
DR Congo: Drone strikes hit Goma, killing at least three people, including a French aid worker, marking the first such attack in the city since the AFC/M23 rebels seized it last year (Reuters).
Djibouti introduced a carbon levy on shipping to fund climate projects and respond quickly to crises amid aid cuts (Independent).
The Gabonese government has formally requested a new IMF program as it tries to stabilize public finances and rebuild investor confidence after the 2023 coup (Reuters).
Ghana announced it is preparing backup routes for artisanal gold refining after Dubai flight disruptions exposed how dependent the trade is on UAE logistics (Reuters).
The Guinean government dissolved 40 political parties, including main opposition, prompting warnings of a “party-state” from opposition leader (AP News).
Kenya: Authorities launch automated traffic fines system sending alerts by SMS to reduce accidents and corruption (Tech Cabal); Flash floods in Nairobi killed at least 23 people (Reuters).
Nigeria: Dangote Refinery suspended petrol sales as oil prices climb following Iran conflict (Semafor).
Somalia: Parliament approved constitutional changes that could delay elections and extend the president’s term (Reuters).
South Africa posted its first current account surplus in two years in Q4 as stronger exports and lower imports helped stabilize external balances (Reuters); Iran and U.S. conflict forced the National Treasury to reassess the budget as rising oil prices and external shocks threaten fiscal plans (Semafor).
South Sudan: Thousands flee opposition-held Akobo after the army ordered an evacuation ahead of a military operation (Bloomberg).
Zambia: Pushback on U.S. health deals reflected concern over data control, co-financing and speed of transition to national systems (Semafor).
Zimbabwe: Impala Platinum has escalated talks with Zimbabwe’s government over its rule forcing exporters to surrender one third of foreign currency earnings, saying the central bank often cannot provide the local currency equivalent (Semafor).
Business and Finance in Africa
Africa’s Slow Climb
Source: UN
According to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report, Africa as a whole economy is projected to grow 4.0% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, up from 3.5% in 2024. Hopefully, that holds with everything going on. East Africa remains the fastest-growing subregion, driven by Ethiopia and Kenya.
Why It Matters
Inflation is easing but still elevated, limiting how fast central banks can cut rates.
Debt service costs remain high, with interest payments averaging 14.7% of government revenue.
Bottom line: Africa’s growth is stabilizing, but debt pressures, uneven regional performance and global uncertainty continue to cap the upside.
Diaspora Dollars
Source: via Axel Peyriere on LinkedIn
I liked this graphic Axel Peyriere posted on LinkedIn. Africa received about $95B in diaspora remittances in 2024, roughly equal to total foreign direct investment. The largest recipients were Egypt ($22.7B), Nigeria ($19.8B) and Morocco ($12B).
Why It Matters
Remittances account for about 5.2% of Africa’s GDP and can reach up to 20% of national income in some smaller economies.
With flows around $100B annually in 2025, diaspora transfers are now one of the continent’s largest and most stable sources of external finance.
Bottom line: Africa’s diaspora is already one of the continent’s biggest financial backers. The next challenge is turning remittances into long-term investment. Read More: Africa Business Chamber, Africa News Agency
Venture Capital in Africa
The VC in Africa section on embedded finance is written by Matthew Davis of Renew Capital.
Fintech Passport Begins
Source: Generated by Renew Capital
Regulatory fragmentation is the single biggest tax on scaling a fintech across Africa. A startup that cracks Nigeria still faces $250K–$2.7M in fresh licensing costs for every new market. Passporting changes that math entirely.
What's happening: Yesterday, Kenya and Rwanda signed the Kigali Declaration on Fintech License Passporting, allowing payment fintechs licensed in one country to operate in the other without restarting the regulatory process. It's the direct successor to Africa's first passporting framework, signed between Ghana and Rwanda in February 2025.
The big picture: Rwanda is quietly becoming the hub of a bilateral treaty network that could stitch together a continent-wide regulatory fabric, modeled on the EU's PSD2, where a home-country license travels with you.
What to watch:
Each new bilateral deal compresses the time and cost to reach pan-African scale
Faster scale = faster exits, a direct tailwind for investors with fintech exposure
A joint technical committee still has to operationalize the Kenya-Rwanda rules; implementation, not intent, is the real test
The bottom line: Two deals in 13 months. Ghana-Rwanda in 2025. Kenya-Rwanda this week. The question for founders and investors alike: who's next and are you positioned ahead of it?
Explorations in Africa
Source: FT
I have been missing Egypt for some reason, so this Financial Times article on Villa Fayoum piqued my attention.
The Place
Two hours from Cairo, the village of Tunis sits beside Lake Qarun in the Fayoum Oasis.
Palm groves, desert horizons, donkeys on dirt roads and a long tradition of colorful pottery.
It is a restored artist residence remade as a 12-suite boutique guesthouse.
Designed by Florian Amereller and Zeina Aboukheir of a hotel in Luxor called Al Moudira.
Fayoum blends craft culture with deep history: Roman ruins, Middle Kingdom temples and the fossil field of Wadi al-Hitan. Think antiques, Egyptian craft, farm-sourced food and quiet lake views. Sounds perfect.
Thanks for reading. In case you missed it, check out our piece on the Red Sea spillover. Email us at [email protected] if you have comments or suggestions.
