Africa’s numbers are getting bigger just as the world’s margins are getting thinner. A historic youth surge is arriving as global growth slows, migration tightens and politics grow more brittle across the continent. At the same time, railways, informal trade and even football are pointing to where resilience and momentum are already forming. This week’s Brief tracks those crosscurrents and leaves me wondering: can Africa turn scale into strength fast enough?

Did You Know? 

Africa has just 66,000 km of rail, less than half of China’s, despite being more than 3x larger by land area. Source: Bloomberg and Visual Capitalist.

Graphic of the Week 

Africa’s Youth Wave

From The Global Economy in Five Charts, this week’s graphic is a quiet warning looming for Africa. While the article’s charts 1–4 show a global economy that held up in 2025, helped by stockpiling, AI investment and risk appetite, Chart 5 (above) shows that 1.2 billion young people will reach working age in emerging and developing economies by 2035, with the largest surge in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, global growth is expected to slow in 2026 as trade momentum fades. Read more: World Bank.

What We Are Reading

• Africa: The U.S. is pausing immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, including 26 across Africa, tightening access for work and family migration (CNN); Bill Gates and OpenAI back a $50M AI rollout to help 1,000 health clinics address staff shortages and improve patient care by 2028 (FT).

• Benin: Opposition parties failed to win any parliamentary seats as pro-President Patrice Talon's parties secured all 109 seats amid claims of electoral irregularities (Reuters).

• Botswana: Diamond stockpile has nearly doubled as prices slump, forcing production cuts, dragging growth and squeezing a sector that delivers a third of government revenue and most foreign exchange (Reuters).

• Central African Republic: The constitutional court has upheld President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s re-election, granting him a third term despite opposition claims of fraud (Reuters).

• DR Congo: Government forces have retaken the strategic eastern town of Uvira after M23 rebels withdrew as peace talks remain uncertain (Reuters); The government has offered U.S. investors access to state-owned manganese, copper-cobalt, lithium and gold assets under a minerals pact aimed at reducing reliance on China (Reuters).

• Ethiopian Airlines orders nine Boeing 787 Dreamliners to expand long-haul network and 11 737 MAX jets, aiming to meet growing international travel demand and advance sustainable aviation (Reuters).

• Ghana: Proposed mining reforms, including scrapping fiscal guarantees and doubling royalties, may risk deterring investment and slowing output, industry body warns (Reuters); Cocoa farmers face delayed payments as a new purchasing system and falling global prices strain cash flow and threaten investment in the next harvest (Reuters).

• Kenya: Government launches $824M IPO of Kenya Pipeline Company to fund infrastructure projects amid legal and transparency concerns (Semafor).

• Libya: The Central Bank devalued the dinar by 14.7%, the second cut in less than a year, citing political divisions, declining oil revenues and ongoing economic instability (Reuters); Signs $2.7B deal to expand Misurata Free Zone with plans to create jobs and boost port capacity (Reuters).

• Mali: Industrial gold output fell 23% in 2025 after Barrick Mining halted operations over tougher mining rules; B2Gold became the largest producer (Reuters).

• Malawi raises petrol and diesel prices by more than 40%, worsening the cost of living and transport fares (BBC Africa).

• Nigeria: Airstrikes by the Nigerian air force killed more than 40 militants and destroyed about 10 canoes in Borno state, foiling planned attacks by Boko Haram and ISWAP (Reuters); Five soldiers and one police officer were killed after troops responding to a village attack were ambushed by militants in Zamfara State, according to the military (Reuters).

• Senegal: The national football team won the Africa Cup of Nations by defeating Morocco, earning the country a public holiday and a morale boost amid a $7B hidden debt crisis (Bloomberg).

• South Africa: The U.S. has accused South Africa’s military of defying government orders by hosting Iranian warships in BRICS+ naval drills, escalating tensions over Pretoria’s foreign policy alignment (BBC).

• South Sudan: Opposition forces SPLA-IO call for advance on capital Juba after capturing strategic town of Pajut amid renewed heavy fighting and UN concerns over peace deal violations (Reuters).

• Uganda: Long-ruling President Yoweri Museveni won a seventh term with 71.6% of the vote, as opposition leader Bobi Wine rejected the result and election observers criticized military involvement (Reuters); Gold exports rose 76% in 2025 to $5.8B, driven by high international prices and new mining projects (Reuters).

• Zimbabwe: Caledonia Mining plans to spend $132M in 2026 to develop the Bilboes gold mine (Reuters).

• Zambia: The country becomes the first in Africa to allow Chinese mining companies to pay taxes in yuan, supporting China’s push to internationalize its currency and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar (Bloomberg).

Business & Finance in Africa 

Africa Trades More Than You Think

I found this graphic in The Economist interesting. Turns out Africa’s internal cross-border trade may be far larger than the official data suggests:

• Official figures put intra-African trade at 15% of total trade.

• New OECD research finds $10B in food is traded informally each year in West Africa alone, up to 6x higher than reported.

• Much of this trade is large-scale and cross-border, often moved by lorry and coordinated by traders like Ghana’s market queens.

• When informal flows are included, West Africa’s food trade rivals the EU.

Bottom line: Perhaps the trade is already there. It’s just the data and policy that lag. Read more: The Economist

Politics in Africa

11 Go To Polls

This year…

• Africa has 11 national elections slated for 2026, spanning Ethiopia to Cabo Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe.

• Roughly half look competitive. The rest are largely predictable due to entrenched incumbents and tilted rules.

• Conflict hangs over key votes, especially in Ethiopia and Somalia.

• Long tenures dominate in Uganda, the Republic of the Congo, Djibouti and South Sudan often after term limits were weakened or removed.

• Youth are central everywhere, demanding transparency, fairness and jobs.

• External actors are adding complexity, including Gulf rivalries in East Africa.

Tech & Society in Africa

Africa’s Rail Bet

Africa is rediscovering rail as the fastest way to cut trade costs and unlock growth.

What Happened

• Proposed rail investments more than tripled in 2025 vs. 2024.

• Morocco plans $10.5B for rail expansion. South Africa’s Transnet is seeking $7.8B for track and port upgrades.

• Corridors like Angola’s Lobito line are already moving copper and cobalt from the DRC to global markets.

• Trucking still adds up to 20% to import costs for landlocked countries.

Why It Matters

• Rail is cheaper over long distances and connects fragmented markets.

• Africa has ~66,000 km of rail, far behind China.

• The African Union targets 30,200 km of new lines by 2040.

• As aid shrinks, rail is becoming a core trade strategy.

Sports in Africa

Senegal Stuns Hosts 

A wild final in Rabat capped Africa’s most commercially successful Africa Cup of Nations tournament ever.

What Happened

• Senegal beat host Morocco 1-0 to win the Africa Cup of Nations.

• Pape Gueye scored the extra-time winner after stoppages, protests and a late penalty save by Édouard Mendy.

• Senegal players briefly walked off after a controversial stoppage-time penalty.

• Off the field, the tournament delivered a 90%+ surge in competition revenues.

• Sponsor count jumped to 23, up from nine in 2021.

Why It Matters

• The Confédération Africaine de Football has turned AFCON into a global commercial property.

• Media rights and sponsorship expanded into China, Japan, Brazil and Europe.

• Long-term partners stayed, new global brands joined and eAFCON launched African football into eSports.

Bottom line: AFCON 2025 proved African football can deliver drama and dollars. Read more: CAF and CNN.

Explorations in Africa

Seeing the Congo Anew

An interesting FT Weekend piece uses a river cruise to confront what the author, JR Patterson, thought he knew about the Congo River.

The Lens

• Traveling up the Congo River and Sangha in the Republic of the Congo, the author moves between comfort on the Princesse Ngalessa and daily life in riverside villages.

• He constantly checks his own reactions, noticing how easily Western eyes read austerity as hardship and isolation as backwardness.

• Encounters with traders, fishermen and Indigenous forest communities challenge his instinct to romanticize or pity.

The piece pushes back on the “Heart of Darkness” inheritance, arguing the darkness was never the river’s. I kinda want to go. Read more: FT Weekend.

Thanks for reading. If you missed last week’s edition, take a look back at How Big is the Budget Shock? and we’d also love to hear from you at [email protected]. 

See you next week!