Across Africa, people travel for family, for holidays, for work, for trade and for survival, often across borders that matter less in practice than on paper. This week’s Brief follows that motion, from holiday journeys and diaspora circuits to visa rules, flight costs and shipping lanes, revealing how Africa is shaped less by where lines are drawn and more by how people move.

Did You Know? 

51% of African emigrants move within Africa

Source: Africa Migration Report II (AU–IOM, 2024).

Graphic of the Week 

Mapped in Motion

According to an article this week from the Institute for Security Studies, Africa’s migration story is often misread. It is less about exit from the continent and more about circulation, with power, capital and politics moving through diaspora networks that formal maps fail to capture.

What the data shows

• Most Africans stay in Africa. Intra-African mobility dominates regional corridors.

• The Gulf leads outside Africa. Saudi Arabia and the UAE outrank Europe and North America as destinations.

• Europe follows. Italy, Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and Belgium anchor long-standing routes.

• North America is smaller but influential. Fewer people, outsized economic and political impact.

• About 25.1 million Africans, or roughly 1.9% of the continent’s population, lived outside their country of birth as of 2020; consistently, around half of emigrants (currently 51%) stay on the continent (Africa Migration Report II 2024).

What’s really happening

• Mobility over migration. Lives are lived “here and there” at once, sustained by remittances, digital finance and constant connection.

• Diaspora as infrastructure. Families, savings groups, clinics, schools and political networks operate across borders alongside the state.

• Rising political weight. Diasporas shape debate and informal diplomacy. The African Union recognizes them as its Sixth Region.

It’s an interesting perspective: Africa is governed less by borders than by connections and the most important map is less about borders and more about relationships. Side note: The article isn’t clear but perhaps Sudan appears so large because it has long served as a regional refuge and labor hub for migrants from the Horn and Sahel. Read more: ISS

Africa Trivia

Which West African country is known for Christmas fanals, colorful lanterns often shaped like ships and paraded through the streets during the holidays?

A) Senegal
B) Sierra Leone
C) The Gambia
D) Liberia

What We Are Reading

• Africa: PayPal announced it plans to launch a cross-border digital wallet platform in 2026 through partnerships with local fintechs to enable global payments using existing wallets (Semafor); The African Development Bank mobilized a record $11B to fund energy, food systems and infrastructure projects in 37 low-income African countries (Bloomberg).

• Angola secured $753M in U.S. and South African loans to upgrade the Lobito rail corridor, critical for mineral exports and trade diversification (Bloomberg).

• Côte d’Ivoire: Fitch upgraded the country’s debt to BB, lifting bonds and placing it just two steps below investment grade (Bloomberg).

• DR Congo: Ex-rebel leader Roger Lumbala was sentenced to 30 years in France for crimes against humanity during the Second Congo War (Reuters); Rwanda-backed M23 rebels agreed to withdraw from Uvira under U.S. pressure to support peace talks, while still holding Goma and Bukavu (Bloomberg).

• Egypt: The Suez Canal and Red Sea may reopen in 2026 after Houthi attacks closed them in 2023, easing shipping costs and global supply chain strain (Bloomberg).

• Ethiopia: The U.S. ended Temporary Protected Status for Ethiopians, forcing thousands to leave within 60 days despite ongoing conflict and famine (CBS News).

• Eritrea quit regional bloc IGAD, accusing it of bias toward Ethiopia amid rising tensions and fears of renewed conflict (BBC Africa).

• Ghana: The IMF disbursed $385M after reform progress, signaling policy credibility and strengthening investor confidence (Bloomberg).

• Guinea-Bissau: ECOWAS rejected the military junta’s transition plan, demanded a quick return to constitutional rule and warned of targeted sanctions against obstructors (Reuters).

• Morocco: Flash floods in Safi killed at least 37 people, the deadliest in more than 20 years, as rescue operations continue (Bloomberg).

• Namibia announced plans for a $1.76B energy expansion to boost renewables, cut costly imports and raise electricity access to 70% by 2030 (Bloomberg).

• Nigeria: Inflation eased to 14.5% in November, improving the central bank's prospects to resume interest rate cuts in February 2026 (Bloomberg).

• Senegal: Climate change worsened farmer-herder conflicts as drought and expanding farmland increase violence and crop damage (AP News).

• South Africa allowed Starlink and other foreign satellite internet providers to operate without 30% local Black ownership (AP News).

• South Sudan grounded four UN aircraft, accusing them of illegal surveillance and smuggling, which the UN denies (AP News).

• The Tanzanian government seeks a Washington lobbyist to counter criticism over post-election violence after hundreds were killed or detained following the October 29 elections (Semafor).

• Uganda announced plans to borrow $608M from Korean and South African banks to fund infrastructure amid rising public debt (Reuters).

• Morocco: The central bank held the interest rate at 2.25% amid uncertainty and prepared to shift to an inflation-targeting system (Bloomberg); Moroccan builder SGTM surged in its IPO, raising $548M to build World Cup stadiums and infrastructure (Bloomberg).

• Mozambique: South32 announced it will mothball the Mozal aluminium smelter by March after failing to secure an affordable power deal (Reuters).

• Zambia: President Hichilema signed a constitutional amendment changing parliament’s composition ahead of the August elections despite opposition concerns (Bloomberg).

Geopolitics in Africa 

Opening Africa’s Borders

The 10th edition of the Africa Visa Openness Index (AVOI) tracks a decade-long shift toward a more integrated continent. While 2025 shows a slight pullback, driven by the rise of digital pre-travel authorizations, the longer trend remains clear: dismantling barriers to human mobility is central to making the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) work.

What stands out in 2025

• Progress, with a pause: 28.2% of intra-African travel is now visa-free, up from 20% in 2016, though the overall openness score slipped to 0.445, below the past three years.

• The digital paradox: 31 countries now use e-visas, but because these require pre-approval, they are still counted as visa-required, lowering openness scores despite easier processing.

• Clear leaders: Rwanda and The Gambia remain fully visa-free, while Kenya hit a record score after exempting citizens from 52 African countries from its ETA system.

• Regional momentum: ECOWAS leads all regions with an average score of 0.597 and achieved 100% visa-free reciprocity among its members in 2025.

• Economic logic: Openness is increasingly led by lower-income and landlocked countries, using mobility to drive tourism, trade and investment.

Why it matters
Visa openness is not about convenience. It is the human engine of Africa’s single market. Without seamless movement, the AfCFTA’s ambitions for trade, industrialization and scale will remain incomplete. Read more: Africa Visa Openness Index

West Africa Set to Take Off

ECOWAS is betting that cheaper flights will unlock trade, tourism and mobility in one of the world’s most expensive regions to fly. This seems like a good move for the regional bloc of 15 countries created to promote economic integration, free movement and political cooperation across West Africa. The bloc’s approved plan will abolish all air ticket taxes across West Africa starting January 1, 2026. Member states must also cut aviation charges by 25%. At least four major taxes, including the security tax, will be scrapped.

Current state

• West Africa is consistently ranked Africa’s most expensive air travel region.

• Taxes and charges can make up a large share of fares.

• Regional air charges can be up to 67% higher than elsewhere on the continent.

Why it matters for growth

• Lower fares are expected to boost passenger volumes, trade and tourism.

• Stronger connectivity supports sectors like health, education and commerce.

• ECOWAS argues higher demand could ultimately raise government revenue, even with lower taxes.

Bottom line
This is one of ECOWAS’ boldest transport reforms yet. If enforced and passed through to fares, it could finally make flying within West Africa more affordable. Read more: Business Insider.

Peace & Security in Africa 

Suez Back in Sight

According to Bloomberg analysis and signals from major carriers, a partial reopening of the Red Sea route as early as 2026 could drive shipping costs sharply lower, easing global supply chains and putting pressure on freight, fuel and commodity prices.

What’s happening

• The Red Sea and Suez Canal have been largely closed since November 2023 after Houthi attacks.

• Ships rerouted around Africa, adding 10 days and absorbing ~6% of global fleet capacity.

• Since a Gaza ceasefire in September, attacks have eased and traffic quietly picked up in late 2024.

• CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest shipping line, plans a regular Suez service in early 2026, a signal others are watching closely.

Why it’s slow

• The ceasefire is fragile and insurance costs remain high.

• Carriers want to avoid switching routes twice.

• Cheaper fuel has softened the cost of the Africa detour.

Bottom line
The canal is not fully open, but momentum is building. If stability holds, Suez’s return could unwind years of shipping disruption. Read more: Bloomberg

Explorations in Africa

Back From Extinction

According to the BBC, a once-lost antelope is quietly beginning to push back the Sahara by restoring broken ecosystems.

What happened

• The scimitar-horned oryx went extinct in the wild in the 1980s.

• Decades of captive breeding led to reintroduction, starting in Chad in 2016.

• The animals adapted fast, migrated with the rains and began breeding.

• The IUCN upgraded the species in 2023 from extinct in the wild to endangered.

Why it works

• Built for extremes. Survives months without water and intense heat.

• Ecosystem engine. Spreads seeds, fertilizes soil and supports predators.

• Climate signal. When oryx return, vegetation rebounds.

By the numbers

• 0 to 600: Wild population rebound

• 347: Released in Chad

• 250x: Higher seed germination after digestion

Bottom line
Interesting that Africa’s climate story is not just solar panels and tree walls. It’s refreshing to see that resilience sometimes walks on four legs. Read more: BBC Earth

Africa Trivia Answer

Answer: C) The Gambia. In The Gambia, Christmas is marked by fanals, illuminated lanterns paraded through the streets with music and drumming, a tradition rooted in 18th- and 19th-century Senegal, where Signares, wealthy Afro-European women who controlled trade and property, attended midnight Mass accompanied by candle-lit lanterns shaped like their homes, a custom later carried to Bathurst (now Banjul) and adapted into the boat-shaped designs seen today. Source: Access Gambia and Gambia Embassy.

Happy holidays! See you in 2026. The Africa Brief will be taking a break on December 26 and January 2. In the meantime, take a look back at last week’s graphic on Mineral Power Play and email us at [email protected].