Good morning Africa Briefers,

This week, we’ll be taking a closer look at COP28 in the UAE and its implications for African states. We’ll briefly summarise the main takeaways from the conference, before discussing what governments across Africa were hoping for and what was actually achieved. We’ll then turn to some of the climate challenges and opportunities facing the continent between now and COP29 in Azerbaijan next year.

COP28 came to a close in Dubai on Tuesday this week, as the world gathered for the much-anticipated annual conference on climate change. Though negotiations on the COP declaration went into extra-time, agreement on a final text that had unanimous support was eventually found, much to the relief of the Emirati hosts, despite the gavel coming down on the final proceedings without representatives from the Small Island Developing States in the room (Politico; BBC).

The headline from the conference was without a doubt the inclusion of a commitment by all the states present to “transition” away from fossil fuels - the first time such a pledge has been made at COP. However, this language was far from uncontroversial. Climate activists, representatives of indigenous groups, and Western European, Latin American, and small island nations lobbied for tougher language, calling for a “phaseout” of fossil fuels.

But OPEC+ member states, mostly notably Saudi Arabia, as well as many African countries, were unwilling to make such commitments (AP; Atlantic Council). The agreement on the language of “transition” was therefore a compromise; one reached in the last hours of the conference, after previous drafts of the language provoked significant backlash from those pushing for more ambitious climate goals (Bloomberg).

Many such critics remain unhappy with the final wording, which they argue is full of loopholes that allow polluting countries to continue to do so unabated (Bloomberg).

Yet while these fraught final moments of COP28 meant that it did not end on a particularly high note, other activities at the conference did give cause for some optimism, with new pledges from governments on enhancing energy efficiency and augmenting renewable energy capacities, and pledges from governments and private-sector firms to reduce methane emissions (IEA).

Moreover, COP28 saw significantly more private-sector representation, engagement, and even leadership than in years past, with firms making commitments to green investment, emissions reduction, and other climate-friendly, measurable commitments (Atlantic Council).

Of particular importance to African governments was the establishment on day one of the conference of a loss and damage fund, something that had been approved in principle at COP27 in Egypt last year. The fund will provide compensation to countries suffering the brunt of climate change-induced natural disasters, like droughts, floods, and storms. Within the first hour of being approved, the fund had attracted US$420mn in donations, including US$100mn each from Germany and the UAE, although the U.S. pledged just US$17.5mn. These figures fall far short of what is needed, but are a step in the right direction for African states already bearing the brunt of climate change (AP).

However, the COP28 declaration has been heavily criticised by some due to its lack of solid, bankable financial commitments from the global North to the South - both in terms of investment in the green transition, and in enabling adaptation to climate change in the places hit worst by it (Atlantic Council). According to the UN, developing countries will need US$6tn in financing by 2030 if fossil fuels are to be abandoned by 2050, but the COP28 declaration does not indicate where this money will come from (Bloomberg).

Criticism has also been levelled at many of the other agreements in the declaration, which have been argued to be strong on rhetoric and weak on action.

For instance, the COP28 declaration commits to tripling the world’s renewable energy capacity and doubling its energy savings by 2030, but as Giovanna Coi writes in Politico, while the former is within reach, the latter is far too ambitious, and there is little evidence to suggest countries will have any success in reaching it.

Similarly, the declaration calls for more carbon-capture technologies to be developed and rolled-out, but there is little evidence so far that this will be on a large enough scale to make a significant dent in emissions before the end of this decade (Politico; Politico).

Following the African Climate Summit that took place in Nairobi earlier this year, which led to the adoption of the Nairobi Declaration, representatives of African states at COP28 had clear goals in mind in Dubai.

First among these was affirming the right to a just green transition, a position that explains the lack of agreement on the part of many African states to a “phaseout” of fossil fuels. Many African leaders have stated that while they highly encourage green investment in their countries, they also believe that their countries have a right to benefit from their natural resource wealth, including fossil fuels, to drive economic development and reduce poverty.

Given that wealthy countries have already benefited from fossil fuels, they argue that it would be unjust to demand that African states do not seek to benefit from their lucrative reserves of oil and gas, especially since Africa has been the worst affected continent from climate change in recent years (Olajide et al. 2018), despite the continent currently accounting for less than 5% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions (Al Jazeera).

While there has been significant pushback on these arguments from European representatives as well as African scientists and activists, the final language of the COP28 declaration largely supports the rights of African states to develop using fossil fuels, although it remains to be seen whether this will change in the coming years (National).

A second goal for African states at COP28 was securing financing for climate change adaptation, rather than simply mitigation. From 2020-2030, Africa will need US$500 bn for climate change adaptation, but in 2020 only US$11bn was available (Al Jazeera). Drought, flooding, storms, rising sea levels, soil erosion, and declining water tables are already increasing in prevalence across the continent, but there is limited financial support for African governments trying to adapt to these threats.

For instance, in 2019 two cyclones led to the destruction of 95% of Beira City in Mozambique, but financing to avert similar disasters in future is scarce (The Conversation). This year meanwhile, the Horn of Africa has seen long-term droughts give way to massive flooding, leading to the destruction of crops and critical infrastructure, but funding to repair the damage and prevent it in future is lacking (National).

Early on in the conference, Zambia’s Green Economy and Environment Minister told the press, speaking on behalf of the African Group of Negotiators, “Adaptation is a matter of survival for us in Africa… it is the most important outcome for Africa at COP28” (Devex).

On this issue some progress was made: the creation and implementation of a loss and damage fund will provide some financial assistance to these ends. However, the COP28 framework for adaptation was criticised by some for not going far enough. Discussion on the topic of adaptation in the first week of COP was repeatedly shut down by several Middle Eastern states, China, and India (Devex), and the resulting document is light on detail and funding commitments (Devex). As a senior Senegalese official told media, getting any kind of agreement on climate adaptation was a “historic achievement”, but ultimately the framework “is full of eloquent language but regrettably devoid of actionable commitments” (Devex).

Another major ambition at COP28 for African states was in securing investment to facilitate the green transition. Africa needs US$2.8tn to respond to climate change between 2020 and 2030, but current financial flows stand at just US$30bn annually (ADB). At the conference, the African Development Bank was successful in corralling investment for a diverse array of needs across the continent, mobilising US$175mn for the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa (AGIA), and announcing plans for significant investment in green energy production in the Sahel, investments in clean cooking fuels, and strategies for unlocking private capital investments (ADB).

However, in keeping with the limitations of other aspects of the conference, overall investments pledged at COP fell far short of what is needed, attracting condemnation and frustration amongst activists and commentators, with France24 for instance leading their coverage with the headline “Where is the money?”, while this Bloomberg column launches a scathing attack on wealthy countries for not following through on their green rhetoric with cash.

Overall then, the conference was a bit of a mixed-bag. Certainly the operationalisation of the loss and damages fund is a step in the right direction, while the final agreement to transition away from fossil fuels is historically unprecedented (if perhaps 30 years too late). However, ultimately the success of this COP will be determined by what happens over the following months and what is announced in Azerbaijan next year: Can wealthy countries follow through on their pledges to support the green transition by dedicating the significant sums of money necessary? Will funding for adaptation and loss and damage be sufficient to prevent the worst of the potential harms in the places worst-hit by climate change, many of which are in Africa? Time will tell.

That’s all from us this week!

Cheers,

Josh