Good morning Africa Briefers,

In a slight change from our usual content, this week we’ll be taking a Closer Look at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON). We’ll give you an overview of what to expect at the tournament, which teams to watch, and our analysis and predictions for the games to come.

AFCON is Africa’s premier international football tournament in which 24 qualifying teams from across the continent compete, initially in groups of four and then in knock-out rounds, to win African football’s biggest trophy.

This is the third AFCON since its controversial expansion from 16 teams in 2019. Unlike other continental competitions which take place every four years, AFCON takes place every two years, primarily because of the difficulties that the Confederation of African Football (CAF) has in raising money: hosting the tournament more frequently enables a steadier and arguably larger stream of income for an institution not exactly flush with cash (Sporting News; Jeune Afrique).

That said, this year’s tournament has the largest ever prize money: US$7mn for the winner, US$4mn for the team finishing second, and US$2.5mn and 1.3mn for the third and fourth-placed finishers respectively. While this is spare change for some European clubs, these sums are larger than those given out in the Copa America - AFCON’s South American counterpart (The Conversation).

Ivory Coast initially won its bid to host AFCON 2021 a decade ago (BBC), but for various reasons from the COVID-19 pandemic, to unfavourable weather conditions, to slow progress on the part of previous hosts Cameroon in building necessary infrastructure, Ivorians are only now, finally, holding the tournament (The Conversation; Africa Is a Country). 

Preparations for the tournament have cost the Ivorian government in excess of US$1bn, largely funded through borrowing (The Conversation; BBC). Perhaps unsurprisingly, such significant expenditure on a sporting event in a country where 40% of people live below the poverty line has been the subject of criticism (World Bank; Al Jazeera). While the Ivorian government has claimed that much of this investment went towards improving roads, hotels, hospitals, and other critical infrastructure that will have wide-reaching benefits for the country’s people and economy, commentators have pointed out that investments in sporting events rarely pay out.

For instance, as one researcher told Al Jazeera, South Africa’s hosting of the 2010 World Cup added 0.5% to its GDP growth that year, but since then the investments have not been particularly successful. Similarly when Ghana and Cameroon hosted AFCON in recent years, the investments made in infrastructure have yielded little, with stadia often quickly falling into disrepair (Africa as a Country)

Les Élephants will thus hope that infrastructure built for this AFCON will not become elephants of an altogether different - and whiter - variety. However, there is cause for optimism that these investments and the hosting of AFCON will help Ivory Coast attract international attention and investment, with one Chatham House analyst speculating that the transport links and development of infrastructure outside of Abidjan could help spread these economic benefits to other parts of the country (Al Jazeera). Given that the country has seen average annual GDP growth of 7-8% since current President (and former Deputy Director General of the IMF) Alassane Outtara took office in 2010 (BBC; France24), such a perspective should not be dismissed out of hand, although some argue that this growth has yet to ‘trickle down’ past the country’s elites (France24).

The tournament kicked off in earnest last week, with the hosts starting their campaign off strong with a convincing 2-0 win over Guinea Bissau on Saturday. Thus far, the tournament has been full of goals (the most per game since 2012) and surprises, with Ghana’s Black Stars losing to Cape Verde, and heavyweights Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon, and Nigeria - all expected to push into the knock-out rounds - drawing with their respective group stage opponents.

Thus it was Senegal and Morocco who immediately stood out in the first round of group stage games, with the Teranga and Atlas Lions - current AFCON champions and 2022 World Cup semi-finalists respectively - both winning 3-0 against opponents The Gambia and Tanzania.

Senegal and Morocco are also the two standout favourites to win the tournament amongst bookmakers and commentators.

Senegal possess great talent through the heart of their side, with star winger Sadio Mané, centre back Kalidou Koulibaly, and goalkeeper Édouard Mendy all with the squad in the Ivory Coast. The trio are highly experienced, top-quality players, all over-30, with glittering careers and are supplemented by a strong core of dynamic young talent. Manager Aliou Cissé meanwhile enters his 9th year in charge, and has led the team to significant success. AFCON winners in 2021, Senegal were dumped out of the 2022 World Cup by England in the round of 16, but confident victories over Ecuador and hosts Qatar turned heads. My money is on Senegal to ride their blend of experience and youth to win a second successive AFCON trophy.

My co-writer Josh meanwhile favours Morocco, who he thinks will end their 58-year wait for the trophy. Say what you will, he says, about the Spain, Portugal, and Belgium sides that the Atlas Lions beat en route to the 2022 World Cup semi-finals in Qatar - Morocco’s organisation, sleek counter-attacking football, and resolute defending is impressive. Questions have swirled as to whether they can replicate the same style of football when playing on the front foot against inferior teams, but the ease with which they swept aside Tanzania this week must have put some of these doubts to bed.

That’s all from us this week!

Cheers,

Josh