Good morning readers,

By way of introduction, I’m Josh and I’ll be giving Joshua a hand contributing to the Africa Brief from now on. We’ll be alternating weeks - Joshua will send out the typical Africa Brief with analysis of the most important news from the continent, while I’ll send a longer-form article, taking a ‘closer look’ at a topic shaping Africa’s present and future.

This week, we’ll be discussing the BRICS summit, which kicked off on Tuesday in Johannesburg after much anticipation and speculation. The leaders of each of the bloc’s 5 members made the trip to South Africa, minus Putin, whose decision to send Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and to attend the conference virtually has spared South Africa the awkward decision of whether or not to arrest him (CNN). The summit has attracted global attention as its constitutive states call for stronger economic ties, seek to draw up geopolitical plans for a multi-polar world order, and mull expanded membership. In attendance were government representatives from across the 69 invited nations (Al Jazeera) - notably excluding France, as President Macron’s request to attend was denied (Reuters) - of which 23 had made formal applications to join the bloc and more than 40 stated their open interest in joining (Al Jazeera). On Thursday, it was announced that the bloc would expand to include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Argentina, Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt from January 2024.

Prior to the announcement, the growth of the BRICS was top of the summit’s agenda, with membership having been static since China invited South Africa in 2010. Russia and China were both angling for the bloc to develop into a more coherent geopolitical unit: the former because of the bite of Western sanctions and the need for more trading partners and allies, and the latter because of its importance amidst a push to present herself as the representative of the Global South (NYT; FT; Nikkei).

As one Chinese official told the FT: “If we expand BRICS to account for a similar portion of world GDP as the G7, then our collective voice in the world will grow stronger.” The BRICS have succeeded in this regard: with the announced expansion, the bloc now accounts for 3.7 billion people and 37% of global GDP in PPP terms (Al Jazeera; FT).

But in the lead up to the summit, speculation swirled around whether the BRICS would be able to agree on which additional countries to admit and what other policies to pursue together. Many pointed to the lack of action taken by the bloc in the past and the big differences between its diverse membership, as well as to India’s, Brazil’s, and South Africa’s concerns that the bloc could morph into something explicitly and excessively anti-West, to which each retains strong economic ties (Reuters; The Guardian; The Economist; BusinessDay).

Partly in response to and in anticipation of the latter, Prime Minister Modi and Presidents Lula and Ramaphosa each discussed their involvement in the bloc in positive terms before the summit. They emphasised they were looking for improved economic and geopolitical ties with one another and with other states in the Global South, but took pains to make clear that these steps did not constitute a rejection of the West. For instance, President Ramaphosa made clear on Sunday that he would defend his country’s policy of non-alignment, and would not “not be drawn into a contest between global powers”, but also expressed enthusiasm for expanding and strengthening the BRICS organisation as an important part of his nation’s foreign policy priority, which remains the strengthening of the African continent (Reuters; FT; eNCA; BusinessDay).

As the summit progressed, it became clear that these early signs of cooperation between the BRICS were bearing fruit. In an address at the summit on Wednesday, Modi threw his weight behind expansion, stating that he welcomed “moving forward with consensus on this” (Al Jazeera). Modi had previously been seen as the most hesitant of the bloc’s leaders regarding the expansion of membership, fearing that Sino-Russian efforts to bring in close allies like Iran, Venezuela, and Belarus could water down India’s own influence if these states were to side with China in future debates (NYT).

The present outcome then, appears to have been something of a compromise between each of the BRICS: South Africa brought in two African states; Brazil, its close ally Argentina; India, one of its largest trading partners and closest allies, the UAE; and China and Russia, Iran, with whom both have developed even stronger ties since the West’s sanctions on the latter two. Saudi Arabia meanwhile, is a valuable addition for all of the BRICS given its cordial relations with the West, significant financial resources, and large oil reserves (ING). The exclusion of Indonesia, whom some had predicted to be admitted to the bloc, has gone unexplained so far, but is likely a testament to other members’ unwillingness to allow Chinese allies to dominate it. Nonetheless, an expansion of the bloc to include 11 members represents a big win for Presidents Xi and Putin, both of whom sought greater geopolitical clout through it.

Another outcome of the summit was President Ramaphosa’s announcement that each of the member states would instruct their central banks to report back to the BRICS+ summit next year, to take place in Russia, with ideas about how to reduce reliance on the US dollar (FT). Discussions around de-dollarisation are longstanding, with many states in the Global South expressing frustrations about the hegemony of the dollar in international trade and borrowing in recent decades, but motivations for it have been intensified by the economic sanctions against Iran and Russia, particularly following their expulsion from the international SWIFT payment system (IMG; SCMP; SCMP; Reuters). In the build up to the summit, there had been some speculation that the idea of a single currency for the bloc could be discussed, but this was promptly shut down by South African officials and was not on the agenda (FT).

The strengthening of the bloc’s New Development Bank (NDB), headquartered in Shanghai and established in 2015 as an alternative to the World Bank, was also discussed, the summit serving as an opportunity to raise its profile and membership (Reuters), which counts just 9 constituent nations including Uruguay’s pending accession (NDB). The inclusion of the UAE, which is already a member, and Saudi Arabia in BRICS+ may enhance the scope of the NDB, given these states’ financial largesse.

What can we make of all this? One thing that seemingly all commentators can agree on - with the exception of this bizarre piece in the UK’s Daily Telegraph - is that the summit and the expansion of membership is important, and is (at the least) symbolic of a shift towards a ‘multi-polar’ world: a word found on almost every page of the summit’s agenda. It is fair to say that the BRICS+ as a geopolitical institution is very much in its infancy; it is not at all clear how such a diverse group of 11 countries will be able to reach consensus on enough issues for it to be effective (Al Jazeera). Further, while Ramaphosa said in closing remarks at the conference that this BRICS expansion is just the “first phase” (FT), the admission of more players will make it even harder to agree on which countries to invite next.

But over-emphasising these difficulties, be they de-dollarisation, a BRICS currency, or the difficulties of decision-making, is, we think, missing the wood for the trees. The overriding sense at the BRICS summit is one of positivity, optimism, and co-operation. There is seemingly emphatic agreement amongst the BRICS and the dozens of other states in attendance that the status quo of Western hegemony in the global order needs to change if equitable human and economic development is to be actualised. Even traditional ‘donor darlings’ of the West like Uganda, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, the latter of whom is now a member of the BRICS, have been recently emboldened in their rejections of what they argue is the imperialist meddling of bygone empires in the progress and sovereignties of global majority states.

This is significant. Whether or not the BRICS+ organisation delivers anything tangible in and of itself beyond rhetoric, the tides are turning. The most important thing is that these nations wholeheartedly agree that the world needs to change and that they have had enough of the Global North dictating the rules for everyone else. Whether those now in the bloc can agree on the details of what this means is beside the point - the political will to create alternative models and means for development is there. This summit is just the beginning.

That’s all from us this week! You’ll be getting the regular Africa Brief again next week and another ‘closer look’ the week after.

Cheers,

Josh Parker Allen