Dear Friends,

A lot has gone on this last week. Thankfully, the Africa Brief gives you the full picture.

Thank you to those who have shared the briefing, for those who have not, please do share far and wide.

• CAR. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is campaigning for the abolishment of term limits in a new referendum. CAR’s leader is backed by Russia's Wagner Group in a cash and minerals for security deal (BBC).

• Egypt. President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, said it was “essential” that Russia return to the Black Sea grain deal. Ukrainian officials say that Russia has blocked their efforts to donate grain to Africa (Reuters).

• Elon Musk. The South Africa born billionaire has taken on South Africa’s far left and combustible leader Julius Malema for singing “Kill the Boer (farmer)” (News24).

• Niger. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened military intervention against the military in Niger. It also echoed calls by the US and France to cut aid and military ties worth hundreds of millions of dollars unless the deposed leader, Mohamed Bazoum, is reinstated (New York Times).

• Teaming Up. Burkina Faso and Mali (both run by juntas) warned that “any military intervention” in next door Niger would constitute a “declaration of war” against those states (Al Jazeera).

• Terror. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies reports on the deadly rise in Islamist extremism across the continent. Check out the link for great infographics (ACSS).

• Senegal. The country blocked TikTok saying it is “the social media network favored by people with bad intentions” (CNA).

• Sudan. The WHO says the conflict has resulted in a health crisis for 3.4 million people in the country (UN News).

• UK. The UK Foreign Minister is on a tour in three African countries. He shared his regrets on recent scaling back of UK economic and security support for the continent (Financial Times).

• US. Senator Risch has made it his mission to remove South Africa from the US’ African Growth and Opportunities Act — a legislative intervention providing favorable trade terms to eligible African states (All Africa).

• Yevgeny. The leader of the Wagner Group made a cameo appearance at the Russia-Africa Summit. Minerals for security contracts from the continent provide his mercenaries with billions of dollars in revenue (BBC).

• Zimbabwe. President Emmerson Mnangagwa openly declared his support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; “Zimbabwe is in solidarity with the Russian Federation in your country's special military operation in Ukraine” he told Putin (News24).

In Context: Two graphics this week for you detailing the significant military bases and interventions in Africa. At least 13 countries have a presence in Africa, with the United States (US) and France having the most troops on the continent. The French Ministry of Defence estimates 7 550 military personnel spread across the continent in various military operations and missions. The US has a higher number spread across 34 known outposts most of which are in the Northern, Western and Horn regions.

For its part, Wagner has set up shop in countries where military juntas rule and rich resources are up for exploitation.

China is Africa’s largest trading partner. Its economic slowdown and its persistent property market troubles are being felt on the continent. The South China Morning Post reports that African exports to China have fallen by 12.4% in the first half of 2023. The biggest losers are Angola, the Congos, Zambia, Nigeria, and Ghana. South Africa has fared better thanks to its more diversified set of exports. Despite the overall fall, exports of African agricultural products continue to rise — an irony considering the crippling droughts in large parts of the Horn of Africa. China continues to enjoy a large export market in Africa with Chinese exports rising by 15.4% to US$87.88 billion in the same period.

Commodity trading giant, Trafigura, is seeking more money for its flagship Chemaf project — a $600 million Congo cobalt play. Cobalt prices have slumped and the project has overshot its budget (Bloomberg).

The Diplomat writes about this pivotal moment in time for African energy markets — a consequence of increased domestic and new European demand (a consequence of Russian energy sanctions). For its part, China is struggling to secure its hydrocarbon interests in fragile states — Sudan and South Sudan stand out. A further challenge faced by Chinese multinationals are local populations pressuring their governments to renegotiate contracts to allow for the sharing of wealth.

In context: not much to say here other than to point out the obvious, it is getting hot.

Senegal’s opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko, was detained following a scuffle with security forces. Sonko said soldiers had filmed him with their phones on his way back from mosque prayers, prompting him to snatch one of the devices. South Africa’s News24 reports that this latest arrest is not linked to the two-year prison sentence Sonko was handed on 1 June for ‘immoral behavior towards individuals younger than 21’. Senegal has for a long time been a bastion of democracy and good governance in an otherwise troubled West Africa.

Since the incident, Senegal’s government has dissolved the country’s main opposition party, detained its leader on charges of fomenting insurrection, and banned TikTok (New York Times).

This week we focus on the UK’s Africa policy. UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly told the Financial Times he would like to co-operate on security with African nations as part of his tour to Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia. Cleverly said; “We need to be honest with ourselves that the Wagner group would not be active in Africa if there wasn’t an unfulfilled need”. The continent remains the largest recipient of the UK Foreign Office’s region-specific bilateral aid spending, but the amount fell almost 19% year on year to £1.1bn in 2022.

A recent report from the Parliamentary committee concluded that the Wagner threat has been “underplayed and underestimated”.The FT reports that the Committee recommended a return to the aim of spending half of the UK aid budget in “fragile and conflict-affected countries and regions.

Sarah Champion, Chair of the Commons International Development Committee, said: “The government’s decision to cut aid has directly undermined our global soft power and has created a vacuum which other states have quickly filled.”

At the same time a report from the Foreign Office found that Britain’s cuts to foreign aid to save money would lead to thousands of deaths across the continent. In one scenario, a 38% cut to aid for South Sudan would leave 27,000 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition untreated, resulting in as many as 3,000 deaths (Financial Times).

Niger 

Last week General Omar Tchiani became the de facto leader of Niger after a televised coup. Pro-coup demonstrators in the capital, Niamey, burned French flags and chanted anti-French and pro-Russian slogans. Ironically the Russian flag has become a symbol of anti-imperialism despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign state.

Since the coup various African regional bodies have spoken out. ECOWAS threatened the “use of force” against Niger’s new military government if it does not cede power within a week.

Meanwhile, Wagner has been quick to get in on the action with Prigozhin declaring in a Telegram message over the weekend: “Further on, we are preparing, improving our level and into the new road, to Africa” (Daily Maverick).

The World Bank has halted disbursements for its Niger operations (Arab News).

Western Interests

Niger was the last true friend of the West along the Sahel. Various counties have significant interests there. France has between 1,000 and 1,500 troops in Niger, with support from drones and warplanes. The country became the hub for French anti-terrorist efforts after its troops were booted from Mali and Burkina Faso in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

For its part, Italy has about 300 soldiers the European Union has 50-100 troops for a three-year military training mission in the country.

There are about 1,100 US troops in Niger, where the US military operates out of two bases. In 2017, the government of Niger approved the use of armed American drones to target militants.

It is unclear how much the United States has given in security assistance. The US Embassy in Niamey in 2021 said the Pentagon and State Department had provided Niger more than $500 million in equipment and training since 2012.

In context: Niger is the latest in a long line of coups across the region. The second trend is the rise in extremism and armed conflict. Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are hardest hit with thousands of civilian deaths.

Nigeria’s Remedial Health raised $12M in a recent investment round (TechCrunch). The company brings efficiency to the country's pharmaceutical value chain — ensuring the proper handling of products, in a market that is not known for doing so. TechCrunch reports that the YC founders currently serve over 5,000 pharmacies and hospitals, growing its client count by 3x and revenues by 7x over the last 10 months. The company sources over 8,000 products from 300 manufacturers, among them GSK, Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

United States in Africa

US Senator Jim Risch tabled legislation proposing the US administration shift this year’s venue for the African Growth and Opportunities Act from South Africa to another African state. South Africa’s Daily Maverick reports that the senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is leading an effort against Pretoria following its warming relations with Russia. The Senator’s proposal is attached as an amendment to the DoD’s budget authorization Bill for fiscal year 2024.

Risch proposed another amendment to the same bill stating that the US Secretary of Defence in consultation with the Secretary of State and other relevant departments and agencies should submit to Congress a report assessing ‘the extent to which the foreign policy of the Republic of South Africa threatens US national security interests…’

AGOA gives duty and quota-free access to the US market for many SA exports and has been especially valuable for vehicle manufacturers as well as wine and fruit producers.