Dear Friends,

Here is an earlier than usual summary of the week’s news. Tomorrow you’ll receive Josh’s long form “A Closer Look”.

Enjoy the read, and stay well.

• Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). China’s BRI entered its second decade. Leaders from Kenya, Ethiopia, and Republic of Congo attended the BRI Forum to mark the occasion (Council on Foreign Relations).

• Cyber Security. Insurance experts estimate that some 90% of African businesses are operating without the necessary cyber security protocol enforcement, putting their employees, profits, and their clients at risk (M&G).

• Ethiopia. In 1993, following Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia lost its direct access to the Red Sea. Since then, it has relied on the port of Djibouti, a small neighbouring country, for its imports and exports. The government has argued that due to geographical, historical, and economic reasons, Ethiopia should be granted peaceful access to the sea. ‘The Red Sea and the Nile are intimately linked to Ethiopia, serving as the pillars that could either propel the country’s progress or lead to its demise,’ Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy said (AllAfrica).

• Ghana. Ghana is asking bondholders to take cuts of as much as 40% to meet its debt-reduction targets as a condition of a US$3 billion IMF bailout program. Bloomberg reports that Ghana’s government is in talks with two commercial creditor groups, one regional and one international, and has received restructuring proposals from both. The news sparked a sell-off of the nation’s dollar bonds (Bloomberg).

• Green Jobs. Africa’s green transition has failed to create more jobs, according to a new report by the International Labor Organization and the International Renewable Energy Agency. Only 320,000 Africans are employed in the green energy sector, a 0.6% drop from 2018. The figure represents just 2.3% of global clean energy jobs (The East African).

• Inflation Rates. Senegal’s inflation rate fell to 3.8% in September, the lowest in almost two years, while price growth slowed to 38.1% in Ghana. In contrast, inflation increased to 5.4% in Namibia and to 13.9% in Rwanda (Bloomberg).

• Mali. The UN issued a warning that a spike in tensions in northern Mali could complicate the withdrawal of 13,000 peacekeeping troops. Malian authorities have ruled out the proposed extension of the UN’s 31 December withdrawal deadline (here)

• Naira Troubles. The Nigerian naira plunged to a new low. The decline of reserves and dollar inflows have made it difficult for the Central Bank of Nigeria to fund corporate and individual demand for the greenback. Capital inflows into the West African nation dropped 33% from a year ago to US$1 billion in a matter of three months, according to the country’s statistics agency. Investors continue to fret over capital controls and a weak economy. On the fiscal front, the Nigerian President Bola Tinubu plans to ramp up spending by almost a fifth in the first budget since his May inauguration. The 26 trillion naira ($34 billion) spending plan is aimed at bolstering the economic growth rate to 3.8% in 2024 (Bloomberg).

• Nigeria. Nigeria reported the production of 1.57 million barrels of oil and condensates per day in September, the highest daily average output since January 2022. In tandem with this news was an announcement that the country is set to receive a US$1.5 billion loan from the World Bank by year-end, with an additional US$80 million from the African Development Bank on the horizon (Bloomberg).

• TotalEnergies. TotalEnergies has rejected accusations leveled against it in a ‘negligence and indirect manslaughter’ lawsuit brought by three survivors and four relatives of victims of a 2021 insurgent attack in Mozambique. The British and South African nationals say that the French oil firm failed to protect its subcontractors (News24).

• Tunisia. Tunis returned €60M in budget assistance to the EU in protest against Brussels, which reportedly withheld funds it had promised as part of a migration deal (Politico).

• World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO is establishing a fair global carbon pricing methodology to ensure that plans to tax imports based on their carbon emissions will not unfairly penalize low- and middle-income countries (Reuters).

• Zimbabwe. Zimbabweans are not yet sold on their government’s latest attempts to ditch their favorite currency: the US dollar. Banks are seeing a slow uptick of gold-backed digital money after the Central Bank issued the so-called “ZiG” for use in domestic transactions and as an alternative store of value. Lenders can now open accounts, facilitate interbank transfers, and offer card transactions using the new digital money (Bloomberg).

In Context: As the BRI enters its next decade, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) considers the BRI Forum’s high-level attendance over the years. While attendance is down at this year’s Forum, Beijing still enjoys the support of major players in the Global South. In 2017, the leaders of 29 countries traveled to Beijing to attend the first BRI Forum, a number that climbed to 37 for the second Forum in 2019. This week, though, only 23 heads of state and government are attending the third BRI Forum. The drop in attendance indicates that enthusiasm for BRI has waned due to: major projects running into trouble, countries having less capacity to take on additional debt, and a decrease in China’s desire to lend.