Dear Friends,

Yet another coup - this time in Gabon. Francophone Africa is going through a historic moment with questions about France's colonial legacy, governance, and security all being raised. We’ll be here to make sense of it all with you.

• Central African Republic (CAR). The country’s top court approved the outcome of the July referendum that will increase the length of a presidential term to seven years as well as remove limits on re-election. The country's main opposition parties and civil society groups had urged a boycott of the referendum, saying the amended law was designed to keep President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in power for life (BBC).

• Climate Troubles. An IMF report warns that climate change could intensify conflicts in fragile and war-affected nations, of which there are 39 countries on the list, 21 being in Africa (Reuters).

• Contagious Coups. Another coup d'état in Africa, this time in the sub-Saharan African nation of Gabon where the junta named General Brice Oligui Nguema as the new leader, overthrowing 56 years of Bongo family rule (Reuters). The coups speak to a broader trend of anti-French sentiment, often deserved, as Francophone countries grapple with their postcolonial histories (BBC).

• Ethiopia. A food aid scam has seen thousands of tons of food diverted from the war torn region of Tigray into the hands of intermediaries and the Ethiopian army (Reuters).

• Fire in Johannesburg. 74 people died in a horrific inner city fire (Daily Maverick).

• France. France’s ambassador to Niger was given 48 hours to leave the country. Niger’s junta accused the envoy of refusing to meet the new foreign minister, who was appointed after a coup on July 26th (Al Jazeera).

• Uganda. Ugandan prosecutors have lodged charges of “aggravated homosexuality” against a 20-year-old man — a crime punishable by death — in one of the country’s first applications of new laws (New York Times).

• Zimbabwe. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) observer mission criticized voter intimidation in Zimbabwe, mismanagement by its electoral body, and laws that restricted free speech. On Saturday, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa was unsurprisingly declared the winner of last week’s election, granting him a second and final term. He took a reported 52.6% of the vote, compared to 44% for the main opposition challenger, Nelson Chamisa.

In Context: Another buckle added to the Coup Belt. This time in Gabon where the Bongo family’s 56 year reign seems to be at its end. While Gabon is not a Sahelian nation (where most coups have originated lately — see graphic) the country is a Francophone nation and former French colony. A wave of anti-French sentiment coupled with tough economic conditions and deteriorating internal security is emboldening Africa’s military men to take charge. Before the coup took place, authorities cut the internet and imposed a curfew as Gabon held its presidential elections.

The military takeover in Gabon is the eighth in West and Central Africa since 2020, and the second - after Niger - in as many months. Military officers have also seized power in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad, erasing democratic gains since the 1990s and raising fear among foreign powers that have strategic interests in the region (Reuters).

A wave of anti-French sentiment, often appropriate in the context of France’s post-colonial economic hold on its former colonies, is spurring public sentiment. Seven of the nine Francophone states in West Africa still use the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro and guaranteed by France, as their currency. Since 1990, a striking 78% of the 27 coups in sub-Saharan Africa have occurred in Francophone states.

Further analysis to come in next week’s Closer Look.

The expansion of the BRICS to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and Egypt will make the bloc the world’s most dominant hydrocarbon producer. One of the many lessons of the 20th century: those who control hydrocarbons control the trajectory of geopolitics. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation crunched the numbers.

Moving away from hydrocarbons – for those interested in tech, investments, and beautiful places, check out Silicon Zanzibar. This public-private initiative is attracting and relocating Africa’s tech companies and workers to the island of Zanzibar (African Business Report).

If the beach doesn’t intrigue you, then the sports will. For the first time in six decades, fans in Zanzibar on Sunday witnessed the first boxing fight after a long-standing ban was lifted. The lifting of the ban aligns with current President Hussein Mwinyi's strategic push to promote tourism and sports development. Results of six-month research conducted in 2021 suggested that just over 60% of the population in Zanzibar were in favor of the return of boxing (BBC).

As seen in our Graphics of the Week, instability has captured large portions of the continent in a trend starting from the pandemic and precipitated by fuel and food insecurity wrought by the war in Ukraine. The Economist’s Intelligence Unit writes that high inflation could lead to more civil unrest into 2024.

While parts of the African continent grapple with coups and insurgency, China’s Defence Ministry welcomed representatives of 50 African states to its Global Security Conference — part of President Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative (South China Morning Post). The GSI maps Beijing’s policy principles for managing conflicts and keeping the world at peace.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, of Baptist University in Hong Kong, said “China is grasping the occasion to propose another type of military and security assistance: not mercenaries but training and weapons, security devices and security through development.”

As a consequence of its geography, large parts of Africa are highly vulnerable to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather. The EIU finds that a high-intensity El Niño will cause severe economic disruption in many African countries, impacting its agriculture given largely rain-fed cultivation and livestock. High prices for farm inputs (fuel, fertilizers, water, and livestock) and imported food products (driven by the war in Ukraine and uncertainty over the Black Sea grain deal) in turn increase overhead costs.

President William Ruto continues his bid to thrust Kenya onto the world stage. Next week, the Africa Climate Summit will be held in Nairobi where African and international leaders will discuss financing for climate action and the just energy transition. Foreign Policy writes that countries need renewable investments of about $1.7 trillion per year to be able to expand electricity and make the transition to low-carbon energy, but they fell flat and attracted only $544 billion in foreign direct investment for clean energy in 2022.

For a continent of 54 countries, investments in Africa are largely concentrated in a handful of them: Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, and Kenya account for nearly three-quarters of all renewable energy investment on the continent since 2010 (UNCTAD).

Liberian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Leymah Gbowee has urged Liberian voters not to elect alleged warlords in October's elections. Gbowee, who won the prize "for non-violent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work", challenged voters to elect candidates who would implement the 2009 Truth and Reconciliation Commission's recommendation to implement a war crimes court (All Africa).

In unsurprising news, President Emmerson Mnangagwa won Zimbabwe’s election with 52.6% of the total votes cast while his main challenger Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) party came second with 44%. Both the opposition and international observers criticized the unfree and unfair nature of the elections (Daily Maverick). South Africa merely watched on.

In good news for the continent, this week marks a year since the last wild poliovirus type 1 virus was detected. African healthcare leaders are committed to ensure more years without the virus spreading (WHO).

Gabon Coup

The country produces some 210,000 barrels per day (b/d) and is estimated to have around 2 billion barrels of crude reserves. It is the only African OPEC member to hit its production quota in recent months (S&P Global).

Three of the country’s largest hydrocarbon producers are French, including Maurel & Prom, TotalEnergies, and the Anglo-French independent firm Perenco.

The Bongo family has grown fabulously wealthy thanks to its hold over the country and its oil reserves. If you go to the country today you can count the monuments to the family: the Omar Bongo Triumphal Boulevard, the Senate Palace Omar Bongo, and the university, football stadium, gymnasium and military hospital that all bear the Bongo name (even his hometown carries it: Bongoville) (The Guardian).

The family is known to own 33 homes in France. Ali Bongo's (the now deposed President) wife, Inge, appeared on a US reality television show, Really Rich Real Estate, shopping for a $25m mansion in California. Despite all its oil wealth, 33% of its 2.3 million people live in poverty, while 40% of Gabonese aged 15 to 24 were out of work in 2020 (World Bank).

Relatively little is known about the new leader, General Brice Oligui Nguema. General Nguema is the former head of the Gabonese Republican Guard, the country’s most powerful security unit, and is reportedly a cousin of Gabon’s ousted president, Ali Bongo. Gen Nguema had been a close confidant of Ali’s father, Omar. Gen Nguema told France's Le Monde newspaper that Gabonese people had had enough of Ali Bongo's rule, and that he should not have run for a third term.

"Everyone talks about this but no one takes responsibility," he said. "So the army decided to turn the page."

This is not the first coup attempt. Unrest broke out after Bongo's contested 2016 election victory, and there was a foiled coup attempt in 2019 (Reuters).

A "contagion of autocracy" is spreading across Africa, said Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, the current chair of West African bloc ECOWAS. He said he was working closely with other African leaders on how to respond in Gabon. The United Nations, African Union, and France, Gabon's former colonial ruler which has troops stationed there, condemned the coup.

Mali

The Economist reports that the security situation in Mali continues to deteriorate, as 13,000 United Nations peacekeepers and police are drawn down from the country. The ruling junta ordered them all out of the country by year end. The historic city of Timbuktu, faces a blockade by jihadists, with Voice of America reporting a shortage in food and aid for the ancient city (Voice of America).

Sudan 

Civil war continues to rage in Sudan with hundreds of thousands fleeing to neighboring states. Migration of this magnitude has a slow burn effect with neighboring countries likely to experience instability caused by largely unregulated immigration.

Wagner Group

Following Yevgeny’s spectacular fall, Prigozhin’s death raises questions as to how the Wagner Group will maintain its Russian military contractors in Africa. Foreign Policy writes that African governments are already considering alternative partners, such as Turkey.

The Wagner Group maintains some 5,000 members in the four African countries where it operates. In the leadership vacuum left by the death of Prigozhin, questions arise as to who will keep this group of violent mercenaries in check? One option is for the Russian military to absorb the group, but there are many other Russian paramilitary groups (including some operating in Africa) that may seek to recruit Wagner members (Council on Foreign Relations).

A great article in TechCrunch this week about a friend of the Africa Brief, Tokunboh Ishmael, and her $100 million Alitheia IDF — the largest “gender-lens” fund in Africa, backing the often ignored women-led or women-focused businesses across the continent.

Africa, according to the African Development Bank, has the highest percentage of women entrepreneurs in the world; 25.9% of women are in the process of starting or managing a business in sub-Saharan Africa (OECD Development).

Source: McKinsey & Company 

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