Dear Friends,

A quick recommendation and ask before we get into it. I am listening to two excellent podcasts: The Rachman Review — Sudan power struggle risks turning into civil war and The Intelligence by The Economist —The abandonment of the Ukraine grain deal shows a Russia running out of options.

I love writing for you, but I need a bit of help. If you enjoy the briefing, please do share it far and wide (LinkedIn, Twitter, etc.).

Happy Friday. Happy reading.

• BRICS+? Algeria has bid to join the BRICS offering some $1.5 billion to its bank (the New Development Bank) as a proposed condition of entry (Reuters).

• Kenya. Anti-government protests continue. At least 31 people have died (NYT).

• Mali. The new Constitution allows Interim President Assimi Goïta to dictate government policy, giving him the power to dissolve Parliament (BBC).

• Niger. Soldiers announced a coup on national television claiming to have removed the president, Mohamed Bazoum, from power. The President is a key Western ally, France and the US have condemned the coup (NYT).

• Russia-Africa Summit. African leaders descend on St Petersburg for the Russia-Africa Summit with the failed Black Sea grain deal hanging over discussions (Financial Times).

• Sudan. Sudanese economists issued a warning that the country's banking system is facing a ‘severe decline and may collapse entirely’ (Dabanga).

• Tunisia. Tunisia tightened its borders in exchange for aid from the EU. Since then, migrants have been stranded in the heat with little food or water (New York Times).

• Twitter. The company has “ghosted” its Africa-based employees, laying them off without severance pay or benefits (CNN).

• Western Sahara. Israel has officially recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a resource-rich desert region which claims independence (Le Monde).

• Zelensky in Africa? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to meet a broad range of African leaders on African soil. Speaking to African editors in Kyiv last week, he said he had explained that more African leaders were now expected to visit Kyiv (News24).

In context: Global South Rising? The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are united by a wish to collectively improve their bargaining power in a world skewed to the West. Now Algeria wants in on the action, putting in a formal request to join the bloc. This matters as the country is Africa’s largest natural-gas exporter and since the invasion of Ukraine, Europe has fallen over itself to have Algerian gas replace fuels from Russia. 21 other countries have already submitted bids to the BRICS, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. .

The world economy is expected to grow by 3% this year, according to the IMF. This is a slightly faster pace of growth compared to the previous estimate in April. In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to decline to 3.5% in 2023 before picking up to 4.1% in 2024. Growth in Nigeria in 2023 and 2024 is projected to gradually decline a reflection of security issues in the oil sector. In South Africa, growth is expected to decline to 0.3% in 2023, with the decline reflecting ongoing power shortages (IMF).

The International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) has ordered the Tanzania Government to pay more than $109m to a group of companies fronted by Australian miner Indiana Resources Ltd in compensation for the controversial 2018 expropriation of a nickel mine project (All Africa).

At the Russia-Africa Summit, President Putin pledged to replace the now defunct Black Sea grain deal with a new Russian sponsored free grain deal for the continent (African Business). 

In the wake of Wagner’s influence across the continent, Foreign Policy thinks China won’t be building its own Wagner in Africa. A policy against the creation of its own private military company runs counter to deep rooted Maoist doctrines. “Beijing retains a strong cultural aversion to mercenaries who are not subservient to the party—for fear that they could pose a threat to the state’s monopoly on violence,” FP writer Arduino explains. However, if Beijing can no longer outsource its security in Africa to groups such as Wagner, it could soon face increasing risks to its significant assets there.

In context: Fire data from satellites suggest violence has surged in much of Sudan.

In Botswana, the country’s Directorate of Intelligence and Security invaded the offices of a leading newspaper, Mmegi, arresting its editor and a reporter. The incident highlights threats of media repression, compromising the credibility of elections in one of Southern Africa's model democracies (News24).

Further North and along the Sahel, the military government in Mali has adopted a new Constitution that enhances the powers of the President and the military. It also creates a Senate and demotes French from an official to a working language (a stab at France, its former colonial power). The Constitution allows Interim President Assimi Goïta to dictate government policy and gives him the power to dissolve Parliament. A legal case to have the referendum results annulled, because the vote was not held in all parts of Mali, was rejected by the Constitutional Court (BBC).

Three parts for this section: Niger, Russia-Africa Summit, and Sudan.

Niger

A group of military leaders, including members of the presidential guard, have closed the country’s borders and imposed a nationwide curfew. Soldiers detained its president, Mohamed Bazoum. The coup will further complicate Western efforts to help Niger stem attacks by insurgent groups that have been causing havoc in the country and across the Sahel.

In context: The academic literature on coup d'états in Africa is clear; coups follow coups. The latest coup in Niger is consistent with this literature as well as the general deterioration in security across the Sahel and into the Horn of Africa. Key drivers to regional instability include; food insecurity, climate change, failed public services, activities of terrorist organizations, and population growth — often pre-conditions for civil wars and civil strife. The Sahel and the Horn have the highest prevalence of coups and attempted coups in Africa.

Russia-Africa Summit

The Financial Times reports on the second Russia-Africa Summit. 17 African heads of state met with Russia’s President in person in St. Petersburg. The event is billed as strengthening cooperation in peace, security, and development. The dominant discussion point is concern over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its leading to higher food and oil prices for many African nations. A Kenyan official called Moscow’s move to quit a grain export deal for Ukrainian grain a “stab in the back . . . that disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought” (Financial Times). Among other commitments, President Putin committed to supporting the African Union joining the G20. In 2019 over 40 African leaders attended the event. Russia has criticized Western countries for pressing African leaders to skip a summit in St Petersburg this week.

Sudan

The Sudanese Ministry of Finance acknowledged that the delay in state employees' salaries is due to the ‘collapse of the banking network and cash liquidity issues, stemming from the conditions of war’. Economist Dr Issa Adam highlighted the need for alternative banking systems in different parts of Sudan, to counter the ‘tight centralisation and concentration of bank operations in Khartoum’, which greatly hinders the availability and accessibility of funds in other regions.

In other news, CNN released a blistering report on Twitter, writing how former employees of Twitter Africa, who were laid off as part of a global cost-cutting measure after Elon Musk’s acquisition, have not received any severance pay more than seven months since leaving the company.

United States in Africa

Foreign Policy asks whether the US can repair its rift with the South African government. The relationship hit a low since the US ambassador to the country alleged that Pretoria had shipped arms to Moscow. South Africa’s close relationship with Russia and China have made this job a lot more difficult. In FP’s view, news that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the BRICS summit in South Africa may suggest that there is behind the scenes progress.