Trump’s second presidency. What’s in it for Africa? As the dust settles on Trump’s return, questions linger: Will U.S.-Africa trade flourish or fade under “America First”? This week, we also bring you Kenya’s tea pile-up, info on Africa’s inflows, 2024 VC highlights and much more. Ready to dive in?

Africa Trivia

Graphic of the Week 

Remittances: Africa's Silent Economy

• The big picture: In 2023, remittances to African countries exceeded $90B, significantly impacting both families and economies. Nigeria and Egypt alone receive more than $20B annually, with remittances contributing as much as 5% to 10% of their GDPs respectively. 

  • Looking more closely: While larger economies benefit, smaller countries like Lesotho and The Gambia see even higher relative impacts, with remittances constituting up to 26% of their GDPs.

• Remittances are now rivaling major exports, demonstrating a growing economic force, especially as aid to the continent decreases (The Outlier).

Seen an eye-catching graphic on Africa? Share it with us! Email your submissions or drop links in the comments.

Top 10 Stories on Africa this Week

Here are ten of the most viewed articles on Africa from November 1 to 7, 2024. Our chatbot gave this week’s top news an average score of 2.3! Scores: 1 = negative, 2 = neutral, 3 = positive.

1. Botswana Voters Oust Ruling Party After Nearly Six Decades (Score = 2): Botswana’s ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was defeated after nearly six decades in power, with opposition candidate Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition emerging victorious (Reuters).

2. Prince William Announces Initiative to Support Wildlife Rangers (Score = 3): Prince William announced a significant initiative to support rangers combating the illegal wildlife trade during a speech in Cape Town, South Africa. The five-year plan aims to provide 10,000 rangers with affordable insurance, training and leadership opportunities (People).

3. UAE Emerges as Major Investor in Africa, Surpassing China and U.S. (Score = 2): The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is rapidly emerging as a major investor in Africa, surpassing both China and the U.S. through significant financial investments and strategic projects, including renewable energy and mining (The Wall Street Journal).

4. Nigeria’s President Orders Release of 29 Children Facing Death Penalty Over Protests (Score = 3): Nigerian President Bola Tinubu ordered the release of 29 minors who were facing the death penalty for allegedly participating in protests against the country’s economic crisis, following pressure from activists and human rights groups (AP News).

5. South Africa Closes Border with Mozambique Amid Post-Election Violence (Score = 1): South Africa has closed its border with Mozambique as post-election protests escalate, leading to clashes between protesters and police (AP News).

6. International Criminal Court (ICC) Issues Arrest Warrant for Central African Militia Leader (Score = 2): The ICC unveiled an arrest warrant against a suspected leader of a militia that attacked Muslim civilians in the Central African Republic in 2014 (Reuters).

7. African Leaders Seek Greater Representation in IMF (Score = 3): African leaders are set to gain an additional seat on the IMF’s 25-member board, a move they hope will amplify their voices in policymaking and address disparities in voting power and representation (Reuters).

8. AI Initiatives Aim to Aid Teachers and Farmers in Rural Africa (Score = 3): Nonprofit organizations are developing AI-driven solutions to provide personalized farming advice and educational tools to teachers in rural Africa, aiming to democratize access to knowledge and resources (Time).

9. Sub-Saharan Africa ‘Trapped’ by Insufficient Growth (Score = 1): By 2026, sub-Saharan Africa’s average per capita income is projected to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels, with a modest 2% growth compared to 2019, highlighting challenges in economic recovery and development (Le Monde).

10. Prince William Concludes Earthshot Prize Visit to South Africa (Score = 3): Prince William concluded his visit to Cape Town, South Africa, for the fourth iteration of the Earthshot Prize Awards, engaging in various environmental initiatives and participating in events held in Cape Town (People).

Like this format or our normal TL;DR? Tell us in the comments! 

Special on the U.S. in Africa

First Reactions: What Trump 2.0 Means for Africa

From the BBC: Trade, aid, security: What does Trump's win mean for Africa?

Expect less…

• The big picture: Trump’s second term may impact Africa in key areas: trade, aid, immigration and security. While some African leaders hope for stronger economic ties, Trump’s “America First” stance could challenge existing partnerships.

• Trade and investment: Trump’s protectionist outlook may jeopardize the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows duty-free exports to the U.S. He’s also proposed tariffs on imports, which could hinder African trade.

• Aid concerns: Trump previously sought to cut foreign aid and may reduce support for initiatives like PEPFAR, a major HIV/AIDS program in Africa.

• Immigration: Trump’s strict immigration policies, including deportations, could affect the rising number of African migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

• Security dynamics: While Trump previously supported Nigeria against Boko Haram, experts are skeptical he’ll counter Russia’s growing influence in Africa, especially given his cautious stance on Russia as a threat.

From the Africa Report (opinion): What Trump’s second presidential term means for Africa

Let’s make a deal…

• The big picture: Trump’s return to the presidency likely brings a “transactional pragmatism” approach to U.S.-Africa relations, focusing on deals rather than ideological commitments.

• Trade impact: While Trump’s administration previously launched Prosper Africa, supporting 2,500 deals worth $120B, his approach may still contrast with Democrat-led cultural and diplomatic engagement programs like AGOA and YALI. If Trump pursues tariffs, Africa’s duty-free access through AGOA could become more strategically valuable for petroleum and critical minerals.

• The silver lining: This transactional model may encourage African nations to unify regionally to strengthen their geopolitical influence, as only the continent’s economically formidable countries might otherwise leverage this approach individually.

From VOA: African presidents congratulate Trump on US election victory

Play nice…

• What’s happening: Several African presidents, including Zimbabwe’s Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu, congratulated Donald Trump on his U.S. election victory, signaling hopes for strengthened U.S.-Africa ties.

• Why it matters: African leaders are expressing optimism that Trump’s second term could bring enhanced economic partnerships, with leaders like Tinubu specifically hoping for “reciprocal economic and development partnerships” with the U.S.

• The big picture: While Trump’s first term was marked by mixed engagement with Africa, leaders across the continent are cautiously optimistic that renewed U.S.-Africa relations may bolster economic and diplomatic cooperation.

And days before the results came in, this from Semafor: Trump’s Africa plans take pragmatic turn

Play the “Look what China is doing here” card…

• The big picture: Experts suggest a second Trump term (now a reality) would bring a more transactional, pragmatic approach to U.S.-Africa relations, focusing on American economic and security interests over social and cultural issues.

• Key focus areas: Trump’s approach is expected to prioritize securing supply chains for critical minerals in Africa to counter China’s dominance. Programs like the Lobito Corridor, a logistics project supported by Biden, could serve as a model for building influence in resource-rich regions.

• Less emphasis on social issues: Conservatives argue Trump’s policies would reduce focus on “preachy” cultural issues like LGBTQ rights, instead adopting an interest-based, business-centered approach.

• Regional implications: Trump’s administration may also show more sympathy towards Somaliland, potentially supporting its push for international recognition due to its pro-Western stance and political stability.

And of course, there’s always Elon…

Business & Finance in Africa 

Dangote Refinery Reshapes Trade

• What’s happening: Nigeria's new Dangote refinery is transforming petroleum trading in Africa and Europe. Since mid-2023, it has processed about 420,000 barrels daily and is expected to reach 650,000—surpassing any single plant’s capacity in Africa or Europe.

• Why it matters: By processing large volumes of crude, Dangote is reducing Nigeria’s oil surplus, helping stabilize the global market and reshaping regional fuel dynamics with a focus on diesel and fuel oil.

• The big picture: With major players like Vitol, Trafigura and BP fueling this shift, Dangote is positioned as one of the largest refineries globally, marking a pivotal change in Africa’s role in the energy landscape (Bloomberg).

Kenya’s Overflowing with Tea

• Pricing floor flop: Kenya’s minimum tea price policy backfired, leaving 15 million kilograms of tea unsold as buyers turned away from lower-quality stock.

• Why it matters: 

  • With the reserve price lifted, the tea glut has driven prices down 10% to 30%, reducing farmers' returns as quality declines.

  • Weekly auctions in Mombasa now see 60% of tea unsold and oversupply is expected to keep prices low well into next year (Bloomberg).

VC Highlights for 3 Qs of 2024

• Sharp decline in funding: African venture funding fell sharply in Q3 2024 to $507M over 108 deals.

• North Africa leads: North Africa topped by deal volume and value, driven by fintech, shifting focus from West Africa.

• Resilient sectors: Fintech and cleantech stay strong, with AI gaining traction despite the funding slowdown.

• Venture debt rises: As funding tightens, venture debt grows, keeping startups afloat.

• Early-stage focus: Most Q3 deals were at seed and pre-seed stages, signaling a long-term growth strategy among investors.

• Read the Africa Venture Capital Association Report to go in depth. 

Jobs Crisis: SA’s Reality Check

• The issue: Unemployment hits 42.6% in South Africa, with more than 12 million jobless South Africans, including 7.3 million youth.

• What’s being done: Some programs are helping, but the numbers keep rising as economic growth lags.

• What’s needed: Experts suggest cutting waste, fixing industrial policy and making South Africa more investment-friendly to spark real growth.

• The takeaway: It’s time for serious action or South Africa’s job crisis will keep getting worse.

Read more from Africa Brief’s friend Colin Coleman in the Daily Maverick. Leaders across the continent should take note!

Climate in Africa

Snow-vember in South Africa?

• South Africa saw its first major November snowfall in 85 years, sparking climate change discussions as rare snowfalls now occur more frequently in spring (Bloomberg).

Democracy in Africa

"I will respectfully step aside…"

• What’s happening: President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat, ending 58 years of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) rule.

• Why it matters: Duma Boko’s victory marks a major shift, driven by economic challenges and anti-incumbent sentiment.

• The big picture: Botswana’s peaceful power transfer showcases its commitment to democracy and accountability (The Economist).

Explorations in Africa

African Passport Power 

• Seychelles topped Africa on the Henley Passport Index 2024, keeping its spot as the continent's most powerful passport. Globally, it ranks 24th, letting holders travel to 156 destinations visa-free.

• Meanwhile, Somalia has the continent's least powerful passport, allowing visa-free travel to just 35 countries (The Henley Passport Index 2024).

Africa Trivia Response

Answer: D, The Diaspora. Read more here and here. 

P.S. We hope you enjoyed the Brief! Reach out if you have ideas or feedback ([email protected]). See you next week!