Happy Thanksgiving to those in the United States. It was an interesting news week on the continent, with Bloomberg in particular delivering some good reads. From Africa’s hidden alpha to a billion-job demographic curve, a seven-leader short G-20 summit and Russia casting deeper nets along African coasts, the stories were sharp and the data useful. Let’s get to it!

Africa Trivia

Which African port is both the continent’s busiest container port and its largest transshipment hub, connecting more than 180 global ports?

A) Durban
B) Port Said
C) Tangier Med
D) Djibouti

Graphic of the Week 

Africa’s Hidden Alpha

A BCG report from earlier in the year focuses on themes we track often in The Africa Brief, including demographics, digital leapfrogging, trade and climate, and it adds useful data and comparisons. Private capital in Africa is still under 1% of GDP (vs. 5–7% globally) even as deal volumes jumped 116% and nearly a quarter of Africa-focused PE funds delivered 15%+ IRR.

What the data shows

• Youth boom: By 2030, half of all Africans will be Gen Alpha, driving demand in finance, health, food and tech.

• Digital surge: Smartphone penetration rising from 51% to 87% is boosting fintech, e-commerce and AI-ready infrastructure.

• Trade lift: AfCFTA could raise intra-African trade by 32% by 2035.

• Climate edge: Africa holds key critical minerals and world-class solar and wind potential.

Where the returns are

• Clean energy and minerals: 20–40% IRR

• Digital infra: Data centers 20–25%, towers 10–20%

• Logistics and trade infra: Ports/SEZs 10–20%, logistics 20–25%

• Essential services: Healthcare 15–35%, agri-processing 25–30%

Why it matters

The fundamentals remain the same but the numbers make the case stronger: Africa is still structurally undercapitalized relative to its growth drivers, creating one of the most mispriced opportunities in global private markets.

What We Are Reading

• Africa: The UAE announced a $1B “AI for Development” initiative to expand AI infrastructure and services across Africa (Reuters); Barclays said cross-border dealmaking into Africa is surging as Gulf, Indian and Asian investors ramp up transactions (Bloomberg). 

• Angola agreed with JPMorgan to roll over a $1B loan, with terms still being finalized as bond yields fall (Bloomberg); Opened a $4B gas plant to boost domestic energy supply and cut reliance on crude (Bloomberg).

• Côte d'Ivoire: The government announced that it expects rising oil and gas production to accelerate economic growth over the next five years (Bloomberg).

• Gabon: France and the EU provided $221M to upgrade rail transport, increase train capacity and modernize stations (Bloomberg).

• Gambia temporarily sheltered Cameroonian opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary on humanitarian grounds following the contested election and deadly post-election protests (Reuters).

• Ghana: The central bank announced that it is likely to cut interest rates for a third time as inflation slows and stays below target (Bloomberg).

• Guinea-Bissau: The military seized power, installed General Horta N’Tam as a one-year interim leader and vowed to crack down on drug trafficking and corruption after arresting President Embaló and suspending election results (Bloomberg).

• Egypt: The pound is gaining foreign investor trust after a 2024 devaluation and may remain attractive even if interest rates are cut further (Bloomberg).

• Ethiopia: The long-dormant Hayli Gubbi volcano erupted in the Afar region, sending ash toward Yemen and Oman with no reported casualties (AP News).

• ​​Kenya: The World Bank lifted Kenya’s growth forecast to 4.9% on the back of low inflation, rate cuts, stronger credit and resilient agriculture, while warning that weak revenues, fiscal pressures and trade uncertainty could still weigh on the outlook (Bloomberg); Safaricom announced that it is offering investors a $113M green bond with a 10.4% return to fund eco-friendly infrastructure in Kenya and Ethiopia (Business Daily).

• Mali and Canadian Barrick Gold struck a deal to end their tax dispute, clearing legal cases and paving the way for the mine’s return to Barrick and the release of detained staff (AP News).

• Morocco’s biggest private healthcare provider, Akdital, announced it plans a $1.6B Gulf expansion with new hospitals and diagnostic centers by 2030 (Bloomberg).

• The Mozambican government granted state firms a 30-year concession to build and operate LNG facilities at Beira and Inhassoro, including the 865 km Rompco pipeline to South Africa (Reuters).

• Namibia: Dr. Esperance Luvindao became Africa’s youngest health minister at 31 (NYT).

• Nigeria: The central bank kept interest rates at 27% to sustain disinflation despite expectations for a cut (Bloomberg); President Tinubu declared a security emergency after mass abductions, authorizing major security recruitment and ordering herders to surrender illegal weapons (Bloomberg).

• South Africa: Mining Minister Gwede Mantashe called for the country to lead a continental effort to coordinate mining policies and strengthen Africa’s bargaining power with multinational companies (Semafor); Japan announced that it is in talks to help finance South Africa’s energy sector reform, adding to previous $150M support for renewable projects (Bloomberg); The central bank warned unregulated crypto and stablecoins pose financial risk and plans new rules for oversight (Bloomberg).

• Tanzania: The construction of Bagamoyo port will start in December after a decade of delays, aiming to handle larger ships than any other East African port (Reuters); The ICC asked to investigate alleged killings and abuses during post-election crackdown after President Hassan’s contested win (Bloomberg).

• Zambia: Inflation dropped to a two-year low as a stronger kwacha and easing food prices boost chances of another rate cut (Bloomberg).

Business & Finance in Africa

A Billion-Job Challenge

Bloomberg’s Big Take says Africa is undergoing one of the most dramatic demographic shifts on the planet: its population has doubled to 1.5 billion, will reach four billion by 2100 and will add one billion people to the labor force this century.

What the data shows

• Annual job demand will peak at around 18 million new jobs needed in 2048.

• Countries already struggle: in Congo, only one job was created for every two new working-age people from 2005 to 2020, a pattern echoed in Nigeria and Ethiopia.

• Sub-Saharan Africa’s fertility rate is 4.2, with more than 20 countries above that, far from the 2.1 replacement level.

Why it matters

World Bank President Banga calls the next decade decisive. Without massive job creation, the demographic dividend could flip into a crisis, fueling poverty, instability and migration, but if countries get it right, Africa becomes the world’s biggest engine of growth.

Geopolitics in Africa 

Seven Leaders Short

South Africa hosted the first G-20 summit on African soil and hoped to elevate the continent, but the meeting was overshadowed by a full U.S. boycott, seven leader no-shows and rising geopolitical fractures. Still, President Ramaphosa pushed through a joint declaration on climate, debt and developing-country priorities despite U.S. objections.

What the data shows

• The summit recorded the worst attendance yet, with the U.S. the only country to boycott entirely.

• President Trump skipped over claims about South Africa’s treatment of white citizens and signaled he may exclude African countries from next year’s G-20 in Florida.

• Despite U.S. pushback, President Ramaphosa secured consensus (minus Argentina) on language praising clean-energy transitions, climate adaptation and debt-relief needs for developing nations.

• Germany’s chancellor noted the U.S. played only a “minor role” as global alliances continue to shift.

Why it matters

The summit revealed two realities at once: Africa can shape global multilateral debates when it has the platform but escalating U.S.–Africa tensions raise the risk that the continent could lose its seat at one of the world’s most influential economic tables, just as climate, debt and development talks become more urgent. Read more in Bloomberg (G-20 Bickering Risks Leaving Africa Out in the Cold) and Reuters (South Africa judges G20 summit a triumph of multilateralism despite U.S. no-show).

Tech & Society in Africa

Migration Is the New Normal

The global migrant population hit 304 million, with the United States hosting 52.4 million, more than the next four countries combined.

What the data shows

• India, China, Ukraine, Syria and Venezuela drive the largest outflows.

• Gulf states have the world’s highest migrant ratios.

• Africa and South America see modest immigration but rising regional mobility.

Why it matters

Migration is now a structural part of the global economy as labor demand, aging populations and instability keep people on the move. Read more: Voronoi.

Climate in Africa

Gabon’s $200M Nature Bet

Gabon is staying in the news! This week, Gabon and The Nature Conservancy signed a letter of intent to launch the Gabon Infini Project Finance for Permanence, a plan to mobilize up to $200M over 10 years to protect climate-critical ecosystems and support community development.

What the data shows

• Gabon aims to protect 30% of its land, freshwater and marine ecosystems.

• The country is 89% rainforest and absorbs more carbon each year than it emits.

• The plan will support an estimated 100,000 people, add protection to 3.4 million hectares of forest, strengthen management of 3.9 million hectares already under protection and safeguard more than six million hectares of ocean.

Why it matters

This is one of Africa’s first large project finance for permanence efforts, pairing long-term conservation funding with a nature-based economy at a time when tropical forests face increasing pressure and climate financing gaps remain significant. Read more: The Nature Conservancy and Semafor.

Russia in Africa

Russia Nets Africa

Russia’s yearlong “Great African Expedition” sent three state-backed research ships around the continent to map fish stocks but Bloomberg reporting shows the mission is also a strategic push to secure fishing rights, expand maritime access and revive Soviet-era influence across Africa.

What the data shows

• Russia is under sanctions and needs hard currency; the global seafood market is a $160B market and demand is set to rise 80% by mid-century.

• Africa loses up to $9.4B a year to illegal fishing and lacks resources to survey its own waters, making data sharing a powerful bargaining chip.

• Moscow has already landed new deals in Morocco (full Atlantic access) and is negotiating with Sierra Leone for 40,000 tons of annual catch and port investments.

• European and Chinese fleets dominate West Africa and local stocks are collapsing, with more than 50% of regional fish populations deemed biologically unsustainable.

Why it matters

Russia is filling gaps left by fraying EU agreements and rising anti-Western sentiment, offering “scientific cooperation” that doubles as leverage for commercial fishing rights, political access and military ties. African governments welcome the data but coastal communities fear a return to destructive foreign fleets that have already gutted local economies. Behind the soft-power optics, the expedition is a strategic play: Russia wants new waters, new partners, new revenue and Africa’s under-policed seas offer an opening. Read more: Bloomberg.

Explorations in Africa

A Volcano Wakes Up

We were on a flight from Addis to Jeddah that passed over the Afar Rift area just two hours before the eruption. Life is strange. Satellite images later captured Ethiopia’s Hayli Gubbi volcano erupting for the first time in about 10,000 years, sending ash plumes as high as 45,000 feet toward Yemen and Oman.

What the data shows

• The eruption began around 11:30 a.m. EAT on Sunday and continued for several hours.

• Ash drifted toward Djibouti, Yemen and Oman, while higher plumes moved over the Arabian Sea.

• Analysts spotted the plume on satellite feeds and alerted the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, which confirmed the eruption.

• According to the article, no major aviation or community impacts have been reported but monitoring continues.

Why it matters

The Afar Rift is one of the most active geological zones in East Africa and the sudden awakening of a volcano dormant for millennia shows the need for real-time monitoring to protect regional air travel and nearby populations. Scientists say they will continue to analyze satellite imagery for any renewed activity and to better understand the behavior of a volcano that has been quiet since before recorded history. Read more: Newsweek.

Africa Trivia Answer

Answer: C) Tangier Med. The port sits on Morocco’s northern coast on the Strait of Gibraltar, where the Atlantic Ocean meets the Mediterranean Sea, one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints. Source: UNCTAD

Thankful for you all! Take a look back at last week’s graphic on Beyond Brick Banks, if you missed it and email us at [email protected]. Happy weekend. 

See you next week!

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