What if the key to impactful U.S. policy in Africa isn't just strategy, but relationships? Duh, you might say. This week, I appreciated Judd Devermont's analysis on why U.S. presidents like George W. Bush and John F. Kennedy, who frequently met with African leaders, achieved more significant outcomes than their successors. As the AfDB elections heat up next week and the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development approaches in Spain, it's clear that relationships matter. From Ethiopia's financial reforms to Ghana's pension-driven startup boom, Africa continues to chart its own course and it’s fascinating to follow.

Africa Trivia

Graphic of the Week

Oval Office or Off the Radar?

In a data-driven analysis by Judd Devermont, republished by Semafor, the message is clear: U.S. presidents who spend time with African leaders drive more impactful policy. President George W. Bush stands out—meeting an African head of state every 33 days and launching major initiatives like PEPFAR after hosting 14 leaders.

What’s surprising: President John F. Kennedy ranks high too, with 2.6% of his working days spent on Africa—and his diplomacy helped shape Cold War alignments. In contrast, recent presidents fell short: Presidents Clinton, Obama, Trump and Biden each spent 1% or less of their time with African leaders. President Trump was last with just three meetings.

The twist: Cold War presidents were more engaged with Africa than their post-Cold War successors, flipping the common narrative of past neglect.

Bottom line: If U.S. leaders want to shape outcomes in Africa, they need to show up. Devermont’s data proves: no face time, no follow-through.

P.S. Judd Devermont is a partner at Kupanda Capital and a senior advisor at CSIS. He previously served as President Biden’s Africa director at the NSC and as Africa intel chief under President Trump and President Obama. His newly minted Substack is popping up a lot these days. 

What We Are Reading

• Africa: M-Pesa processed more than US$450.8B in transactions in FY2025, reflecting its growing dominance as Africa’s largest mobile money platform (Vodafone); Five candidates are vying for the top job at the African Development Bank with elections on May 29 (Naira Metrics); EIB officials pitch Europe as a stable and reliable partner for Africa amid global trade uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs (Bloomberg).

• Côte d’Ivoire: Tidjane Thiam quit as an opposition leader but remains influential ahead of Côte d’Ivoire’s tense 2025 election (Bloomberg). For more on key African elections, see below. 

• Egypt cut Suez Canal fees in a bid to lure back shipping traffic following a deal aimed at halting Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.(Bloomberg).

• Ghana is the first African country to mandate that local pension funds invest at least 5% of their assets in domestic private equity and venture capital firms (Tech Cabal); President Mahama urges oil investors to “pump like there’s no tomorrow” as falling output and global decarbonization threaten to strand crude assets (Bloomberg).

• Kenya: Huawei and Equity Group launch an ICT Academy at Open University to train 10,000 Kenyans in digital skills like AI, Cloud Computing and Cybersecurity (Standard Media); Kenya's foreign exchange reserves have reached a record high due to multiple inflows, boosting shilling stability (Bloomberg).

• Malawi's IMF program lapsed due to fiscal challenges and political uncertainty ahead of elections (Bloomberg).

• Mauritius: A British court blocked the UK government from transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, delaying a long-planned agreement (AP News).

• Namibia's economy is expected to recover with a rebound in foreign direct investment fueled by restarting uranium operations and growth in oil exploration and green hydrogen projects (Bloomberg).

• Nigeria's inflation eased in April, driven by cheaper gasoline and slower food price growth, potentially leading to another interest rate pause (Bloomberg); Scrapping Nigeria's high tariffs and import bans could boost tax revenue, lower poverty rates and ease cost of living pressures, according to the World Bank (Bloomberg).

• South Africa: The rand gained and bond yields declined amid expectations that the central bank will announce a lower inflation target (Bloomberg).

• Uganda's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 9.75% due to global economic uncertainties, despite its inflation remaining below target (Bloomberg).

• Zimbabwe's first dollar-denominated real estate investment trust (REIT) is listed on the Victoria Falls Exchange, spurred by institutional demand for property as a hedge against inflation and currency instability (Bloomberg).

Business & Finance in Africa 

Ethiopia Resets Financial Rules

Ethiopia’s financial overhaul, outlined by central bank governor Mamo Mihretu in a speech last week, is worth understanding. Here’s a summary of what he said. 

Why Reform: Years of reliance on external debt, central bank deficit financing and credit from the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia led to inflation, forex shortages and crowding out of private investment.

What’s Changed (2023–2024):

• Monetary shift: Price stability is now the central bank’s core mandate, supported by a policy rate, interbank market and open market tools. No new money printing for deficits, a 12-year first.

• FX liberalization: Ethiopia floated its exchange rate, created FX bureaus, allowed exporters to retain 50% of forex earnings and opened the market to portfolio investment.

• Banking modernization: A new law opened the sector to foreign banks. The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia was recapitalized and supervision was strengthened.

• Digital and inclusive finance:

  • ETB 12.5T in digital transactions in 2023

  • Mobile accounts exceed 200 million.

  • Push for SME, rural finance and digital lending via fintechs.

What’s Working: Inflation dropped from 30% to about 13% and is heading below 10%. Reserves doubled. Exports and remittances rose 20–30%. Most new credit now goes to the private sector. Treasury bill yields are positive in real terms.

Backed by the Bretton Woods institutions, Ethiopia’s program is the largest IMF reform agenda in Africa and is backed by one of the World Bank’s biggest DPO packages on the continent.

For those who want to keep tabs on Ethiopia’s dynamic landscape, I recommend following along with my old friend Henok Assefa who is producing some thoughtful pieces on LinkedIn. 

Ghana Rewrites Africa’s Pension Playbook

Pensions to power startups: Ghana just made it law: pension funds must invest at least 5% in local venture capital and private equity—unlocking up to $337M by 2026. It's the first African country to mandate a floor, not a cap.

Why it matters:

• Africa’s pension assets top $400B, mostly sitting in low-yield bonds.

• Just 0.58% of Ghana’s pensions were in private capital before this move.

• If 10 big African pension funds followed suit, VC inflows could triple.

The upside: The change means more local capital backing African innovation; reduced FX risk, more jobs and deeper markets. According to some studies, this kind of reform in emerging markets can lead to significant GDP growth.

The signal: Africa’s growth can be funded from within—if we unlock the capital already here. Read more: Techcabal.

Still Billions Short of Trillions

Ten years after the SDGs and Addis Ababa Action Agenda, the grand vision of “finance for development” through private capital has come up short—especially in Africa.

By the numbers:

• $88B: Global private finance mobilized in 2023—only $20B for sub-Saharan Africa.

• $62B: The region’s aid intake that year.

• $36B: Net outflows since 2020, as debt repayments outpace new credit.

• 17%: SDG targets still on track for 2030.

Why “billions to trillions” fell flat:

• Risk-averse investors skip fragile markets.

• Blended finance in Africa returns just 59 cents per public $1. (This number is distressing to me. We will keep our eye out for this forthcoming study as I have seen examples of blended finance projects on the continent that have been much more effective.)

• 80% of African infrastructure projects fail at planning stage.

• 95% of infrastructure spending still comes from public budgets.

What’s next:
Multilaterals admit the old pitch was “unrealistic.” There’s talk of new tools—bundling loans, leveraging local capital—but little has shifted yet. It doesn’t give me much hope for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) that is scheduled to take place from June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Spain, but let’s see.

Democracy in Africa

President Trump vs. President Ramaphosa

In a tense meeting at the White House, President Trump confronted South African President Ramaphosa with claims of “genocide” against white farmers, citing videos and media reports. Ramaphosa pushed back firmly, rejecting the accusations and emphasizing South Africa’s commitment to democratic principles and the rule of law.

By the numbers:

• 30%: Tariffs President Trump set on South Africa in April (paused for 90 days).

• 1st: Group of Afrikaner refugees just resettled in the U.S.

• Some say zero evidence supporting genocide claims.

The twist: Elon Musk and golf legends, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, joined. Ramaphosa brought a golf book. Not exactly a fair fight. Read more: WSJ

Africa Elections 2025

Explorations in Africa

Ethiopia

I’ve been out and about in Addis Ababa for the past week. The city looks beautiful, finally starting to live up to the meaning of its name: new flower. If you haven’t been to Ethiopia lately, I would say, it’s likely time for a trip. The Corridor project is surely an urban and economic development case study we will all be watching for the foreseeable future. My photos don’t do it justice, so for a few more be sure to check out Visit Addis on Instagram. 

P.S. Thanks @Jeffrey Paller for another endorsement last week! The feeling is mutual. For my readers, if you haven’t subscribed to his substack, find it here: This Week in Africa. 

Africa Trivia Response

B) Ghana.

Ghana was among the first countries to participate in the African Continental Free Trade Area's (AfCFTA) Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), which was launched in October 2022. The GTI aimed to initiate commercially meaningful trade under the AfCFTA framework. Ghana, along with countries like Rwanda, Egypt and Kenya, began trading goods such as ceramic tiles, tea and coffee under this initiative. Read more. 

See you next week.

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