From charcoal fires to desert ports, this week’s stories show how Africa’s present continues to be shaped by movement of people, money and power. Nearly half the continent is eyeing the exit routes, Western Sahara is drawing billions and Trump’s budget continues to gut Africa-focused aid. Meanwhile, Uganda’s strongman son makes chilling admissions, Nigeria’s LNG hopes rise and Angola feels the pinch of a Wall Street margin call. Scroll on to read the latest forces reshaping the continent.

Africa Trivia 

Graphic of the Week 

The Great African Rethink

What does it mean when nearly half of a continent is thinking about leaving?

The stats we shared from The Economist article last week have been haunting me: 47% of Africans have considered migrating. 27% have thought about it a lot. So I asked my team to dig deeper.

What we found:

• Migration spikes when annual income hits ~$10,000 — but 94% of Africans earn less.

• Top destinations: North America (31%) and Europe (29%).

• But: 22% would rather stay within Africa.

• Hotspots of migration intent:

  • Liberia (78%)

  • The Gambia (68%)

  • Cabo Verde (64%)

  • Ghana (61%)

Why these countries?

• Likely because they are small, often politically unstable or economically constrained.

• Many have tight job markets, rising education levels and strong diaspora ties, making migration feel both necessary and doable.

Zoom out: Europe and the U.S. face serious labor shortages — especially in healthcare, construction and caregiving. African migrants, especially educated youth, are part of a quiet but growing global labor solution.

Why it matters: This isn’t just about leaving — it’s about aspiring. As Africa’s middle class grows, so will its mobility. The question for policymakers? Can we build opportunity at home before talent walks?

Sources: Afrobarometer, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Immigration Policy Lab, Statista, The Economist.

What We Are Reading

• Africa: The U.S. announces Congo and Rwanda have submitted a draft peace proposal to resolve the conflict in eastern Congo (AP News); The UK government plans to target student visa holders from Nigeria, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, suspecting they are likely to overstay and claim asylum (BBC Africa); President Trump’s administration plans to cut all of its funding ($555M) for the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) main development fund (Semafor).

• Angola: JPMorgan's $200M margin call exposes debt vulnerabilities (Reuters).

• Gabon: Newly elected President Brice Oligui Nguema sets dates for national elections and signals return to constitutional order after 2023 coup (Bloomberg).

• Mali: Barrick's operations suspended amid dispute with military junta (WSJ).

• Nigeria's largest LNG plant, Nigeria LNG Ltd., may see a 12% increase in gas supplies after a deal with Seplat Energy takes effect (Bloomberg); Tinubu plans to sign a resemblance of “America First” order prioritizing local goods and services in government spending to boost Nigerian industries and reduce reliance on imports (Bloomberg); The central bank incurred a $9B loss in 2024 settling overdue derivatives to cut FX liabilities and stabilize the naira (Bloomberg); Meta threatened to pull Facebook and Instagram after losing a $220M fine appeal (Semafor); Traditional boxing sport Dambe is going global (Semafor).

• South Africa: The Democratic Alliance is challenging a new labor law aimed at boosting hiring of Black people and other groups, claiming it is unconstitutional and harms foreign investment (AP News).

• South Sudan: The government may dismiss Vice President Riek Machar and put him on trial if found complicit in recent violence, according to The East African (Bloomberg).

• Sudan: Port Sudan, the wartime capital, was hit by drone attacks for the first time, marking a dangerous escalation in the ongoing civil war (FT); The country has cut diplomatic ties with the UAE, accusing it of backing the RSF amid escalating attacks on Port Sudan (BBC Africa).

• Uganda: President Museveni's son admits to torturing the opposition leader’s bodyguard (FT).

• Zambia: Energy regulator approves $270M transmission line linking copper-rich Kalumbila to Congo to boost regional power trade (Bloomberg).

Business & Finance in Africa 

President Trump Slashes AfDB

U.S. Axes $555M in African Aid: President Trump’s White House plans to cut all U.S. contributions to the African Development Fund — a $555M blow to Africa’s low-income economies.

Why it Matters:

• The AfDB faces a major funding gap ahead of its next three-year cycle.

• The U.S. has been a backer since 1976, and is the second-largest shareholder.

• Other donors are trimming too, but none as drastically.

President Trump’s Bretton Break

• More for the World Bank’s IDA ($3.2B) — less for Africa-specific funds.

• Peacekeeping funds and the U.S.-Africa Development Foundation also face deep cuts.

• Meanwhile, President Trump wants to expand the U.S. DFC with a new $3B fund focused on ROI.

According to Semafor, this aligns with Trump’s 2.0 agenda which is pulling the plug on multilateralism and signaling a return to transactional development (Semafor).

El Dorado Rising

Western Sahara Becomes an Investor Magnet: Trump’s 2020 recognition of Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara has triggered a $10B development boom in the disputed territory.

The Facts:

• A $1.2B port in Dakhla is under construction, set to handle gas, seafood and green energy.

• France and Spain now back Morocco’s claim, angering Algeria and the Polisario Front.

• Foreign capital is flowing fast — Dakhla targets $40B in investment by 2040.

Boom with Backlash

• Algeria is furious and Polisario warns of more resistance.

• The UN still lists the region as “non-self-governing.”

• Critics call it “Africa’s last colony.”

A remote outpost once radioactive to investors is now pitched as Africa’s next logistics hub, thanks in large part to President Trump’s foreign policy dealmaking.

Source: Bloomberg

Gates vs. Musk

• $200B countdown: Yesterday in the FT, Bill Gates announced that he plans to give away nearly all his wealth and shutter the Gates Foundation by 2045, aiming to end polio, slash child mortality and back AI-driven health innovations.

• Musk Clash: Gates accuses Elon Musk of “killing children” by gutting USAID. Musk mocks global health as “globalist”.

• Africa Focus: Gates has invested billions in vaccines and maternal health across Africa. But without public aid, he warns millions could die.

• Bottom line: Gates is racing to save lives before politics, pandemics — and Musk — dismantle the global health gains he helped build (FT).

Climate in Africa

The Fuel of the People

Why charcoal won’t die in Africa: Charcoal powers Africa’s kitchens and economies. Despite pollution and deforestation, demand keeps rising according to an article in The Economist this week. 

By the Numbers:

• 200 million+ Africans cook with it

• 27% of urbanites rely on it

• In some areas, ⅔ of forests lost

• Worth tens of billions

Why it sticks: Dense, portable energy; dirt cheap, locally made; works for slow cooking

Hard to Replace:

• LPG use is growing in cities, but charcoal still rises 2% per year

• Charcoal creates more jobs than gas or electric

• Bans fuel black markets and bribery

Bottom Line: Charcoal isn’t just fuel — it’s a lifeline and for many, it’s here to stay.

On a related note…

Explorations in Africa

Africa's Butterfly Legacy

• A Collector's Quest to Safeguard Biodiversity: I missed this from several months ago and had to share. Steve Collins, a 74-year-old enthusiast, has spent his life amassing the world's largest collection of African butterflies and moths.

• Beginning at age five on his family’s coffee farm in Kenya, his passion grew, resulting in a collection so vast it would require two Boeing 747 cargo jets to transport. Despite multiple attempts to sell it, potential buyers are deterred by Collins's insistence on keeping the collection whole. Read more in the WSJ.

Africa Trivia  Response

A) >45 million. The Economist: Emigration from Africa will change the world

See you next week.

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