Who Rated Us Junk? Who Stole Our Gold? Who Dumped a Dress in a Wetland?This week’s Africa Brief is full of plot twists: Ghana’s back with swagger (and a stronger cedi), China’s wooing Africa with zero tariffs while the U.S. restricts visas, and the continent is finally building its own credit rating agency—because why let Fitch ruin the party? Also: $115B in vanishing gold, a cashew comeback story from Côte d’Ivoire, and a tragic pile of UK fashion waste on Ghana’s beaches. It's messy, beautiful, hopeful and wildly interconnected—just like the continent itself.

Graphic of the Week 

Africa’s Workforce Wave

The clock is Ticking: The urgent need for job creation in Africa is a frequent topic in my circles. Sub-Saharan Africa faces the challenge of generating up to 15 million jobs annually by 2030 to meet demand. But this graph paints a more nuanced picture. 

• Demographic surge: By 2030, half of all new workers globally will be African. 

• Fragile states hit hardest: It makes sense, but the numbers are harsh. 80% of job needs are in low-income, conflict-affected countries on the continent. And of course we all know the equation: youth bulge + slow job creation = increased poverty, migration and instability.

• Informal work dominates—only 1 in 4 workers holds a wage-paying job.

Africa produces just one-third of the jobs from growth compared to peers.

Read more: “The Clock is Ticking: Meeting Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urgent Job Creation Challenge” IMF, November 2024.

What We Are Reading

• Africa: China pledges zero-tariff treatment for all goods from 53 African countries and deepens cooperation under the China-Africa Economic Partnership to boost trade, development and Global South solidarity; Except Eswatini (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China); Africa is set to launch its credit rating agency, AfCRA, by Q3 2025 (The Guardian).

• Algeria’s parliament approved a law allowing foreign firms to own up to 80% of mining projects (Bloomberg).

• Côte d’Ivoire: Soaring cocoa prices and government price controls have fueled smuggling (Bloomberg).

• Egypt is scrambling to import fuel and curb electricity use to prevent summer blackouts after regional conflict halted Israeli gas flows (Bloomberg). 

• Kenya: Deputy police chief steps aside amid investigations into blogger Albert Ojwang’s death in custody, as nationwide protests continue (AP News); The IMF is auditing corruption’s impact on Kenya’s public finances to inform a new bailout program (Bloomberg).

• Mali: A local court has placed Barrick Gold’s flagship Loulo-Gounkoto mine under state control for six months amid a tax dispute, escalating tensions with the Canadian mining giant, one of the world’s largest gold producers (Bloomberg).

• Nigeria: Inflation dropped slightly for a second consecutive month to 22.97%, as food prices eased (Reuters); Women’s basketball sees global momentum, with Team Nigeria’s quarterfinal finish at the Paris Olympics and a growing presence of African players in the WNBA (The Continent).

• Senegal’s bonds fell as the IMF delayed a new deal over a $7B fiscal gap (Bloomberg).

• South Africa: China's electric vehicle giant BYD plans to nearly triple its local dealerships by 2026 to boost EV sales (Reuters).

• Zimbabwe: The IMF praised Zimbabwe’s economic reforms as a “regime shift,” citing tighter monetary policy and the new gold-backed currency, but stopped short of approving a staff-monitored program (Bloomberg).

Speed Dive: Ghana

Ghana at a Crossroads

Since I left Accra last week, I’ve been thinking about Ghana. I have some hope that the country is on the brink of a really good period. 

The big picture: This is a country that’s long punched above its weight. The first in Africa to gain independence in 1957 (Read more). A regional leader in democracy, stability and diplomacy. But the economic story? Well, it's still unfinished.

The last few years have been rough with public debt peaking at more than 90% of GDP by 2022. The Ghanaian cedi was one of the world’s worst-performing currencies in 2022. Inflation hit 54% in early 2023, eroding purchasing power and forcing the Bank of Ghana into aggressive rate hikes. In 2022, Ghana returned to the IMF (for the 17th time since independence), securing a $3B package in 2023 after defaulting on most external debt.

The current state: President John Mahama is back in charge after leaving office in 2017. He is promising to fight corruption and steady the economy. This is some of his progress:

• A recent shutdown of the Ghanaian Embassy in the U.S. may be proof he’s serious about corruption. 

• According to a SwissAid report, $11.4B in gold has been illegally smuggled out of Ghana over the past 5 years. Galamsey (illegal mining) continues to gut land and state revenue and fixing this is a stated priority of the administration. As of May 1, foreigners are banned from buying artisanal gold and all gold must go through the Ghana Gold Board, also known as GoldBod which has sole exporting power. 

• Pension reform is gaining steam with the administration saying that 5% of assets need to go to local venture and private equity. This could be a game changer but it’s not clear when/if directives will be formalized. 

• Inflation is cooling and the cedi is strengthening: Ghana's cedi is up 50% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, making it the strongest-performing currency globally. It’s expensive to be in Ghana these days, though inflation has eased to about 23%. 

The bottom line

• If the new administration delivers on enforcement, energy and investment, it could become a model for the region. Fingers crossed the past is not the guide! 

• Ghana has the history, the talent and the institutions. The moment demands follow-through and for the sake of the people of Ghana, I hope President Mahama can make good on his word! 

If you are headed to Ghana, here’s a google map I have started curating of the startup ecosystem and some of my favorite places! And when you visit don’t miss Gallery 1957.

China vs. the U.S. in Africa

China’s Zero Tariff Plan

While President Trump’s administration keeps hating on Africa with threats of 25 more visa bans for African countries this week, China just keeps loving on Africa. 

The big headline: China is ready to expand zero-tariff treatment to 100% of goods from all 53 African nations it has diplomatic relations with.

• China also committed to supporting Africa through green energy, AI, e-commerce, infrastructure and smoother customs processes for African exports. 

• Notably, Eswatini is again excluded due to its ties with Taiwan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China). Poor Eswatini. 

If implemented, the Trump administration’s visa bans on Africa would target some of the continent’s largest and most influential nations, raising concerns over U.S. foreign policy, fairness and potential diplomatic fallout. It may also affect families, students and businesses with ties to the U.S. (New York Times).

Business & Finance in Africa 

Africa Mines, UAE Shines

I hope they update this report (On the Trail of African Gold by SWISSAID 2024) soon. Fascinating to try to understand the gold flows. Ghana’s report, also from SWISSAID, highlights that the country has lost an estimated $11.4B to gold smuggling between 2019 and 2023.

Across the Continent:

• From 2012 to 2022, $115B worth of African gold vanished into trade gaps—most of it bound for the UAE. 

• In 2022 alone, 405 tons of African gold were imported globally with no matching export records—99% from Burundi went to the UAE. 

How it works

• Gold exits countries like Mali, Sudan, Ghana and Burkina Faso unofficially, often rerouted through Togo or Libya.

• The UAE rarely asks questions. There is no public import data and no origin checks.

• Traders exploit weak enforcement and porous borders. Refineries look the other way. 

Bottom line

• Across the continent, billions are lost to tax evasion, smuggling and shady traders.

• African economies lose formal revenue while Dubai's gold sector thrives.

• Africa digs. Dubai profits. The paper trail? Vanished.

Rate Me Like You Mean It

The African Union says it plans to launch its own credit rating agency—AfCRA—by September.

• It’s a direct response to long-standing frustration with the “Big Three” (Fitch, Moody’s and S&P) and their grip on African risk perception.

• The spark? Fitch just downgraded Afreximbank to BBB, triggering backlash from the bank and renewed calls for ratings reform.

Why it matters

• Western agencies shape how expensive it is for Africa to borrow. Lower ratings = higher interest rates = less room to grow.

• AfCRA will be Africa-based, Africa-led and aims to offer a “more contextual” view of risk.

• Critics worry the new agency could be seen as biased or politicized if not built with strong credibility.

Read more in Semafor and The Guardian.

Agriculture in Africa

Nuts About Industrial Policy

Globalization in a nutshell: Great article in The Economist on cashew nuts in Africa and specifically Côte d'Ivoire.

• Africa grows 50%+ of the world’s cashews—but most are shipped raw to Vietnam for processing, then reshipped globally.

• Farmers get just 10% to 15% of the final product’s value. The rest? Captured overseas.

• Enter Côte d’Ivoire: now processing around 30% of its cashew crop, up from near-zero 15 years ago. Target: 50% by 2030.

How they did it

• Subsidies: $700/ton for processed exports.

• Tax breaks: No duties on machinery imports.

• Political backing: Top-level support, strong technocrats and savvy foreign partners like Olam and Cashew Coast.

• High-tech upgrade: Laser sorters, traceability tools and local women peeling nuts as deftly as any global worker.

Why it matters

• Shorter supply chains = fresher nuts, fewer emissions and more jobs at home.

• Europe likes traceable, sustainable snacks—and will pay more.

Read More: Globalization is nuts

Explorations in Africa

Fast Fashion’s Dirty Secret

I find this photo strangely beautiful and even more so haunting and tragic. This is Jamestown Beach in Accra and it’s not in good shape. 

• UK and EU textile waste is flooding Ghana—piling up in protected wetlands, waterways and beaches.

• Brands like M&S, Zara and H&M acknowledge the issue and back producer responsibility laws.

• Ghana receives more used clothing than any other country but lacks proper waste infrastructure.

Bottom line

• The Kantamanto market can’t keep up—70% of textiles become waste, much of it dumped illegally.

• Communities are calling for reform and some brands now support traceability and takeback schemes.

• Ghana didn’t make this mess but it’s demanding better rules for a cleaner and fairer fashion cycle.

Read more: The Guardian

Big thanks to my fellow Renew Capital researchers Ruth Ayalew and Shaynerose Magabi for the Africa Brief. This is Laura Davis, currently in Washington, D.C. for a few weeks before heading back to Africa. If you are enjoying the brief, please share it with your friends and family. See you all next week.

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