This week: UNCTAD drops the mic—Africa holds less than 2% of global debt but pays the highest interest rates on earth. Ghana gets creative with capital, Senegal gets downgraded, and Cameroon’s 92-year-old president wants seven more years. Meanwhile, ag trade could jump 574% under AfCFTA and Nigeria’s market hits an exciting high. Oh, and in news that feels oddly personal, six years in the making, Ethiopia’s Startup Act passed the last parliamentary hurdle. Plus, Guinea-Bissau earns a UNESCO win. It’s never dull.

Africa Trivia 

What percentage of sub-Saharan Africa’s agricultural output is refrigerated at the “first mile” after harvest?

A) 25%
B) 15%
C) 8%
D) 3% 

Graphic of the Week

Africa’s Debt Dilemma

What’s happening: Africa holds less than 2% of global debt but pays the highest interest rates—averaging 9.8%, nearly triple U.S. rates. UNCTAD’s World of Debt 2025 report makes the case: Africa isn’t overborrowed, it’s overcharged.

• Private creditors hold 61% of Africa’s external debt—costly, volatile and hard to restructure.

• In 2023, Africa faced net capital outflows, paying more to creditors than it received.

• Across the globe, 23 countries now spend more on interest than on education, many of them in Africa.

• Africa’s median debt-to-GDP ratio is 57.8%, lower than in G20 nations like Japan (~250%), Italy (~140%) and the U.S. (~123%). And while debt-to-GDP is only one part of a country’s creditworthiness, it’s interesting to note. 

• Bond spreads are widest in Africa, reflecting investor bias more than economic fundamentals.

Big picture: The global financial system penalizes African economies, forcing governments to choose between servicing debt or providing services. UNCTAD says reform is urgent—fairer terms, better tools and fewer double standards. Read more: UNCTAD’s World of Debt 2025 report.

What We Are Reading

• Angola: Prince Harry visits Angola to back land mine clearance, mirroring Princess Diana’s 1997 trip (AP News).

• Cameroon: President Paul Biya seeks an eighth term in 2025, despite health concerns and 43 years in power (BBC Africa).

• Eswatini: U.S. confirms it has deported violent offenders to Eswatini under new third-country removal policy (Reuters).

• Equatorial Guinea: Govt urges UN court to block France from selling seized Paris mansion, calling it neo-colonial (AP News).

• Ethiopia: IMF warns that the country’s reform progress is at risk due to declining donor support and rising economic and security challenges (Reuters); On July 17, 2025, Parliament took the last step to formalize the Startup Proclamation, aiming to provide legal clarity, financing and tax incentives for startups (Shega). 

• Ghana: Heavy rains and disease threaten cocoa output, sparking emergency response (Reuters).

• Kenya targets 2x FDI by 2026 (Bloomberg); President Ruto appoints electoral officials after legal delays (Reuters). 

• Mozambique: Govt says it has cleared way for TotalEnergies to restart stalled $20B LNG project (Reuters).

• Niger: France signals openness to dialogue on colonial-era massacres but stops short of admitting responsibility or offering reparations (The Guardian).

• Nigeria: Former president Muhammadu Buhari, who led both as a military dictator and elected leader, died in London on July 13 at age 82 (Financial Times); Stocks hit a record high as economic stability, tax reforms and strong retail investor activity fuel the longest market rally since March 2024 (Bloomberg); World Food Program has halted aid in seven West and Central African countries leaving millions, including 300,000 Nigerian kids, at risk of starvation (AP News). 

• Senegal: S&P downgraded Senegal’s credit rating to B- due to a rising debt burden and fiscal misreporting (Bloomberg); Raised $644M in an oversubscribed domestic bond sale despite high debt levels, signaling strong investor confidence (Reuters).

• South Africa: U.S. aid cuts halted a major HIV vaccine trial, risking jobs, research progress and public health efforts (AP News); Durban is hosting G20 finance chiefs to push Africa’s agenda—debt, climate, trade—but top ministers from the U.S., India, France and Russia did not attend (Reuters).

Business & Finance in Africa

VC in Africa: Boom. Bust. Build.

I loved this visualization in a recent IFC report: Venture Capital and the Rise of Africa's Tech Startups. According to the report, Africa’s startup ecosystem grew 7x from 2015–2022, driven by mobile phone adoption, fintech innovation and unmet needs in sectors like agriculture and logistics. But, VC funding plunged 52% from 2022–2024—the sharpest drop globally—leaving many promising startups stranded.

Why it matters: Startups could transform Africa’s economy by digitizing 40 million microbusinesses and creating jobs. But 80% of capital is foreign, and the local VC market is underdeveloped, making growth vulnerable. Some more stats:

• 8 of Africa’s 9 unicorns are fintechs.

• Women-led startups got just 6.8% of funding in 2024—their lowest share ever.

• VC-backed firms make up only 10% of startups yet account for nearly 50% of R&D in emerging markets.

What’s next: According to the report (and I agree), Africa needs local capital. Solutions include:

• Pension fund reform (already underway in Ghana and several other countries)

• Co-investments by DFIs to de-risk early rounds

• Venture debt to reduce equity dependence

Bottom line: I fully agree with the reports take: Africa’s tech boom is real—but without local capital and better funding tools, the ecosystems may not achieve the momentum they need.

Africa’s Uneven AI 

Current state: Africa is growing its AI footprint—but is still behind. A mix of infrastructure gaps, low data affordability and limited cloud services still holds the continent back.

• Egypt and Morocco punch above their weight. Both exceed global averages in AI adoption and development, helped by strong submarine cable links to Europe.

• Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, Ethiopia and Morocco rank among the fastest-growing AI developer hubs on GitHub.

• Nigeria launched an AI Research Scheme and a 3MTT (Three Million Tech Talent) program to train thousands in AI, cloud computing and cybersecurity.

• Ghana embedded coding and AI concepts into its national school curriculum—yes, including the difference between humans, robots and AI.

• Africa’s cloud access lags—just 13 major cloud services operate across the continent compared to 190 in China.

• The AI4D initiative supports pan-African innovation with four research networks, three policy labs and a mission to engage African talent.

• Key risk: Bias in, bias out. Limited local data = poor model performance and deepened inequality.

Big picture: According to the report, Africa’s AI progress is real, but patchy. Strategic investment in infrastructure, skills and local data will decide whether Africa shapes or gets shaped by the next tech wave. Read more: UNCTAD Technology and Innovation Report 2025.

Agriculture in Africa

Borders Waste Bounty

The Mo Ibrahim Foundation 2025 Forum Report is hot off the press. It goes way beyond the Facts and Figures report we covered on June 6, 2025. The report is chock-full, but let’s focus on the agriculture section. 

According to the report, agriculture could be AfCFTA’s breakout winner. If tariffs are fully removed, intra-African ag trade could surge 574% by 2030, unlocking a massive, underused engine of growth.

• 80% of food in Africa is produced by smallholders but barely traded.

• Only 16% of fish and 10% of meat demand is met through cross-border imports.

• Africa holds 65% of the world’s uncultivated arable land but much of it is untapped.

• 50% of food is wasted, mostly due to poor cold-chain infrastructure—just 3% of ag output is refrigerated at the first mile.

Big picture: Agriculture isn’t just about food—it’s a continent-sized trade play. With the right infrastructure, policy and logistics, AfCFTA could turn Africa’s farms into regional powerhouses. Read more: Mo Ibrahim Foundation 2025 Forum Report. The chapter on agriculture starts on page 84. 

P.S. I am really looking forward to scouring the full report. Don’t miss spotlights such as Leveraging African Pension Funds on page 53 and From Extraction to Empowerment: Upgrading Africa's Role in Global Supply Chains Amid the Green Shift on page 71. Or my biased favorite, Affinity Africa’s CEO Dr. Tarek Mouganie’s take on venture capital on page 116. Full disclosure, I am super proud to be an investor in Affinity!

Explorations in Africa

Guinea-Bissau’s Eco Jewel

West Africa’s Island Treasure: I visited Guinea-Bissau more than 20 years ago—back when getting there felt like threading a needle through closed borders, really bumpy roads and slow boats. But the experience was unforgettable, and this news makes me want to book a return trip. 

What happened: Guinea-Bissau’s Bijagos Archipelago was named a UNESCO World Heritage site, recognizing its rare marine ecosystems, sacred cultural sites and endangered wildlife.

Why it matters:

• Home to endangered green and leatherback turtles, salt water hippos, manatees, dolphins and 870,000+ migratory birds.

• Rich mix of mangroves, mudflats and sacred sites across 88 islands of which only ~20 are inhabited.

• Celebrates local traditions and boosts global protection for this 10,000+ sq km ecosystem.

• The news marks Guinea-Bissau’s first World Heritage site, a huge win after 10+ years of effort for one of the worlds poorest nations.

Big picture: The move strengthens conservation and cultural recognition for a uniquely intact West African coastline. Read the news in Barron's and for a deeper dive on the area, see this piece from Vogue in 2023.

Africa Trivia Response 

Trivia Answer: D) 3%  Only 3% of total agricultural output in sub-Saharan Africa is refrigerated at the first mile, contributing to an estimated 50% food waste rate across the continent due to poor cold chain infrastructure. Source: Mo Ibrahim Foundation 2025 Forum Report

Shout-out to my context sleuths who do the heavy lifting, Shayne and Ruth! We’d love to hear from you if you have ideas about where you’d like us to do some digging. And if you are enjoying, please share. Email us at ([email protected]) if you have some scuttlebutt we should follow up on.