Africa is having a moment, but moments do not convert themselves. From Cape Town’s Mining Indaba to Ghana’s gold debate, from warnings of a new scramble to calls for stronger domestic tax systems, the through line is on using its leverage. The continent holds the minerals the world needs, the markets investors want and the demographics that will define the century. Yet value still slips through gaps in infrastructure, coordination and policy. This week’s brief asks a simple question: Can Africa turn leverage into advantage before others do it for her?
Did You Know?
Africa holds an estimated $29.5T in mine-site mineral value, about 20% of the global total, with $8.6T still undeveloped, roughly 2.5 times the continent’s GDP. Source: Africa Finance Corporation.
Graphic of the Week
$29.5T Beneath Africa
Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) just released a useful report called Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals 2026 at the Investing in African Mining Indaba 2026 in Cape Town this week, where more than 8,000 delegates gathered. The report makes a blunt case: Africa’s mining problem is not geology. It is conversion.
The headline: Africa holds $29.5T in mine-site mineral value, about 20% of the global total, with $8.6T undeveloped, roughly 2.5 times Africa’s GDP.
The challenge: As we all know, Africa exports raw ore and imports finished goods. As an example, Guinea earned about $700M from bauxite exports in 2023, yet downstream aluminium value could run into tens of billions. The gap is structural.
The shift: AFC reframes “strategic minerals” around Africa’s priorities which, of course, align with global priorities and can therefore be better leveraged:
Economic security: gold, diamonds, copper.
Industrial systems: iron ore, bauxite, manganese, platinum-group metals (PGMs).
Domestic demand: phosphates, potash, steel inputs.
Future tech: lithium, rare earths, graphite, 3T minerals.
Mining trends: As I was looking into what’s happening at Mining Indaba this week, the list of mining trends stood out as a useful framing. The organizers highlighted several core themes that I believe will likely dominate headlines in the months ahead.
Copper squeeze - Electrification and data centers are driving record demand, but projected supply may meet only about 70% of demand by 2035.
Gold hedge - Central bank accumulation and geopolitical risk continue to support prices.
Battery metals reset - Lithium, cobalt and nickel remain volatile, but EV and storage demand underpin long-term growth, with refining diversification beyond China accelerating.
Supply security - Critical minerals are now strategic assets. Expect export controls, tariffs and regional alliances.
Steel transition - Iron ore remains tied to infrastructure, but hydrogen-based green steel is beginning to reshape the sector.
Coal paradox - Declining in some regions, persistent in Asia, with rising regulatory and compliance costs.
Digital mines - AI, automation and blockchain are transforming exploration, operations and traceability.
ESG premium - Low-carbon operations and transparent sourcing are increasingly commanding capital.
The bottleneck - Infrastructure misalignment. Power, rail and ports rarely co-locate with deposits and demand. Pit-to-port models strand value.
Bottom line: This year is shaping up as a structural reset for global mining as electrification, decarbonisation, AI and geopolitics redraw demand across major commodities. Hopefully, 2026 will bring more integration to Africa’s mining value chains. Read more: Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals 2026; don’t miss the Value Chain Disconnection Matrix starting on page 35.
Source: AFC
What We Are Reading
Africa: Dubai-based Maser Group announced it will invest $1.6B in AI, data centers and farmland in Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya over 24 months (Bloomberg); Fragmented bilateral deals with global powers risk weakening the continent’s leverage as the African Union fails to present a united trade and geopolitical front (Bloomberg).
Botswana: Economic growth is set to return in 2026 but rising deficits will push public debt beyond the legal ceiling as diamond revenues remain weak (Reuters).
DR Congo: President Sassou N’Guesso announced he will run in the March election, potentially extending his decades-long rule (AP News).
Ethiopia is hosting a secret training camp near its Sudan border for Rapid Support Forces fighters, allegedly financed and supported by the UAE, marking the first direct evidence of Addis Ababa’s involvement in Sudan’s civil war and raising fears of wider regional escalation (Reuters).
The Eritrean government rejected Ethiopia’s claims of military aggression and backing armed groups, calling them false and part of a hostile campaign amid rising regional tensions (Reuters).
Guinea: Heavy gunfire erupted near Conakry’s main prison as a notorious inmate tied to the 2009 stadium massacre was transferred (Al Jazeera).
Kenya planned a two-pot pension system allowing early access to savings to boost retirement product uptake (Bloomberg).
Lesotho: A U.S. extension of the AGOA trade deal has eased immediate pressure on its textile industry but workers and officials remain uncertain about the long term (Reuters).
Morocco: Storm Marta triggered deadly flash floods in the north, killing at least four people, forcing mass evacuations, while overfilled dams worsened flooding (AP News).
Nigeria: King Charles III and Queen Camilla announced they will host President Tinubu on the first Nigerian state visit to the UK in 37 years in March (BBC Africa); a new cybersecurity framework to counter rising AI-driven cyberattacks costing banks and agencies millions (Bloomberg).
South Africa: Agricultural exports hit a record $15.1B in 2025 as higher volumes and prices offset a sharp slump in shipments to the U.S. caused by tariffs (Bloomberg); Cape Town planned to sharply raise property taxes on Airbnb and other short-term rentals to ease housing shortages and align them with hotel rates (Bloomberg).
Somalia: A passenger plane overran the runway at Mogadishu airport during an emergency landing and ended up in shallow seawater with no injuries reported (AP News); Mogadishu opened its first modern bowling alley, signaling improved security, growing private investment and a rising middle class (AP News).
Sudan: War trapped nomads near al-Obeid as banditry, ethnic tensions and disrupted routes threaten their livelihoods (Reuters).
Madagascar: Cyclone Gezani battered the island with hurricane-force winds and flooding, causing severe damage and prompting red alerts as it moved inland (Al Jazeera).
Tunisia: The African Development Bank and BIAT signed $50M trade finance guarantee to boost the private sector and job creation (AfDB).
Zimbabwe agreed to a 10-month IMF staff-monitored programme to strengthen fiscal and monetary reforms and pave the way for debt resolution (Reuters); The cabinet approved a draft constitutional bill that could extend presidential terms and allow Emmerson Mnangagwa to stay in power until 2030 (Al Jazeera).
Mining in Africa
Gold, Beyond Bullion
Source: Semafor
Gold is an interesting mining case study highlighted in Semafor this week.
The setup: Gold now accounts for nearly 70% of Ghana’s export earnings, about $21B last year, roughly 20% of GDP. Prices are high. Transformation is not.
The mistake: Ghana currently equates “value addition” with refining. But most gold already leaves highly refined, and global refinery margins are razor-thin, often below 1%. Several local refineries have stalled.
The insight: The real premium is downstream. Nearly half of global gold demand is jewellery, generating roughly 300% more value than bullion, with additional upside in electronics and medical uses.
The gap: Despite 130 years of mining, Ghana lacks a world-class assaying lab and a strong design and fabrication ecosystem.
Bottom line: Refining is not transformation. Without downstream capability, gold remains a windfall, not a development strategy.
Thanks, Semafor for laying that out for us.
Geopolitics in Africa
Continental Blind Spot
In an opinion column for Bloomberg, Justice Malala warns that Africa risks drifting into a new “scramble” as global powers race to secure trade and critical minerals.
His argument: While the UK, EU, India and others strike major trade pacts, African states are cutting bilateral deals one by one, often without coordination through the African Union.
The leverage at stake: Africa holds 70% of the world’s cobalt and 80% of platinum group metals, and its consumer market is projected to reach 1.7 billion people by 2030. Yet mineral producers from the DRC to South Africa negotiate separately.
The structural flaw: The AU lacks supranational authority and cannot compel a unified trade policy, leaving 55 jurisdictions to pursue their own strategies.
The risk, per Malala: Without guiding principles and a united front, Africa could lose bargaining power in trade, minerals and geopolitics, repeating a familiar pattern of external powers shaping the continent’s future.
Business & Finance in Africa
Africa’s Fiscal Moment
Source: Brookings
An essay in Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for the Continent in 2026 argues this is “Africa’s moment to shape the global order” and lays out what it will take to seize it.
The backdrop: Despite rising debt, tighter financial conditions and falling overseas aid, Africa remains the fastest-growing region, home to 11 of the 15 fastest-growing economies, and on track to represent about one-quarter of the global population by 2050. Consumer and business spending could reach $16.1T.
What stood out: The emphasis on mobilizing domestic resources.
The gap: Africa’s average tax-to-GDP ratio is about 16%, far below the roughly 34% typical in OECD countries. But performance varies widely.
Under 10%: Somalia, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Niger.
Above 30%: Tunisia, Morocco.
The argument: Closing the gap is possible through domestic policy tools, strengthening tax administration without slowing growth, broadening non-tax revenues and optimizing public spending. Taken together, these measures could offset much of the shortfall from declining official development assistance.
Read more: Africa’s Moment to Share the Global Order.
Explorations in Africa
Forest, Fireflies, Forgiveness
Source: Intrepid
Tiwai Island Wildlife Sanctuary is a 4 sq mile river island in the Moa River, tucked inside one of the last surviving fragments of the Upper Guinea Rainforest in southern Sierra Leone. Reached by boat after a long drive east from Freetown, Tiwai sits in the country’s Southern Province, far from mass tourism and paved roads. It has come on the radar as an off-the-beaten-path place to visit in 2026, so I wanted to share a National Geographic feature from mid 2025.
Why it’s special: According to author Sam Kemp, Tiwai feels like stepping into a lost world. It hosts 11 species of primates, one of the highest primate concentrations anywhere, and is one of the best places to glimpse the elusive pygmy hippo, with fewer than 2,000 left in West Africa.
The mood: The journey to the island seems to be part of the story. Thunderstorms. Flickers of lightning over silent water. Camp huts ringed by spiders. Guides who speak the language of hornbills and red colobus monkeys. But if you are looking for luxury, this isn’t your destination.
The deeper layer: The forest once echoed with gunfire during Sierra Leone’s civil war from 1991 to 2002. Today, it hums with birdsong. Local guides, many shaped by that conflict, now protect what was nearly lost. Read more: National Geographic Travel.
And that’s it for the week. Thanks for reading. Don’t miss our growing resource hub: Graphics of the Week and Reports resources. We hope to see you next week.
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