Minerals, money and market mayhem. From Africa’s $50B critical minerals play to food prices boiling over in East Africa, this week’s brief showcases some interesting numbers. We’ve got cobalt kings, cocoa smugglers and airline agony. Add in a malaria warning, a cultural revival in Benin and a $10K temptation in West Africa’s cocoa belt and you’ve got a continent in motion, bargaining hard and telling its own story.

Africa Trivia 

Coffee Origins - Ethiopia is widely considered the birthplace of coffee. Which region is most often credited with its discovery?
A) Sidamo
B) Harar
C) Kaffa
D) Yirgacheffe

Graphic of the Week

Africa’s Ore Opportunity

Minerals seem to be on everyone’s mind these days and with demand set to triple by 2030, countries on the continent have a clear opportunity. Collectively, Africa holds 30% of global reserves and much of it is underdeveloped (for a map of what minerals are where on the continent, see the March 14th edition).

Key Facts

• Mineral Powerhouse: Africa holds 70%+ of global cobalt, 55% of manganese, 46% of Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), plus major copper, lithium, graphite and rare earth reserves.

• Current Output: $50B in mining and $16B in refining (2024), expected to reach $83B by 2040 with $50B in investment opportunities. 

• Clean Tech Surge: Green industries will drive over 50% of new demand; lithium use could grow 6x by 2030.

• Defense Demand: Military tech is now a major buyer of rare earths, cobalt and titanium.

• Policy Shift: DRC and Zimbabwe are banning raw exports to boost local processing.

In the News:

• UN Pitch: A “Global Minerals Trust” aims to keep supply fair, but the U.S. and China still hold the cards (WSJ, Aug. 6).

• Africa’s Move: Nearly half of countries curb raw exports; China funds plants in Zimbabwe ($300M lithium) and Ghana ($450M manganese); U.S. talks access deals; Zambia and Congo court EV battery investors (WSJ, July 8).

What We Are Reading

• Africa: Cocoa production across West Africa remains low as aging trees and plant diseases tighten global supply and keep prices elevated (Bloomberg); Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso plan to fund a new investment bank with 5% of tax revenues to reduce reliance on foreign donors (Bloomberg); Climate change is set to worsen Africa’s malaria burden, potentially causing 550,000 extra deaths by 2050 (The Economist). 

• Burundi: Major cities face a water crisis as outdated pipes fail and residents turn to rivers for survival (Bloomberg); Finance Minister Nestor Ntahontuye takes over as prime minister as the government reshuffles amid deep economic woes and 45% inflation (Bloomberg).

• Egypt: Voters elect a new Senate amid economic frustration and rising living costs (AP News).

• Côte d’Ivoire: Opposition denounces arrest of six members in political crackdown ahead of Ouattara's fourth-term bid (AP News); Dangote Cement to open new Côte d’Ivoire plant producing three million tons yearly to tap into construction boom (Bloomberg).

• Ghana: Government raises cocoa farmer pay by 4.2% as stronger cedi curbs larger hike (Bloomberg); Ghana helicopter crash kills eight, including defense and environment ministers (NYT).

• Lesotho says U.S. tariff reprieve came too late as cancelled orders and job losses already hit the textile industry (Reuters).

• Mozambique: Islamic State-linked attacks displaced more than 46,000 people in Cabo Delgado between July 20 and July 28, says UN (AP News).

• Rwanda agrees to accept up to 250 U.S.-deported migrants under new deal as President Trump ramps up third-country deportations (Reuters).

• Somalia: The camel milk industry modernizes with new farms and yogurt production, boosting jobs and nutrition (AP News).

• South Africa is finalizing a support plan to cushion businesses from President Trump's new 30% U.S. import tariffs (Bloomberg); U.S. tariffs threaten 30,000 jobs, prompting a scramble for new export markets and emergency support measures (AP News). 

• Sudan: As famine grips Darfur’s besieged el-Fasher and 13 million Sudanese remain displaced, Sudan’s civil war grinds on (The Economist).

• Uganda: UN warns refugee aid will run out in September, risking malnutrition and protection gaps without urgent funding (Reuters).

• Zambia: Citizens must now pay up to a $15K visa bond to enter the U.S. under a new policy targeting countries with high overstay rates (Reuters); Government seeks $145M more by extending its IMF loan program by one year (Reuters).

Business & Finance in Africa 

Food Prices Boil Over

Some parts of the continent are battling a steep rise in food prices, with South Sudan topping the continent’s food inflation list. According to Trading Economics data from June 2025: 

• South Sudan (106%) and Zimbabwe (103%) top Africa’s food inflation chart.

• East Africa dominates the top five; Nigeria is 7th at 21.3%.

• Djibouti, Somalia and Senegal see rare price drops.

• Many households spend the majority of their income on food.

• Source: Intelpoint

Africa’s Momentum Map

According to Brookings’ new Foresight Africa 2025–2030 report, nearly half of Africans live in countries (mostly small, non-resource economies in East and West Africa) that have outpaced the 4.2% continental GDP growth average from 2010 to 2019. Benin, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Ghana are among the standouts, together accounting for just over one-quarter of Africa’s GDP.

Sector shift: Services now drive 56% of GDP, up from 50% in the 2000s. Jobs in the sector have risen from 30% to 39%, overtaking extractives as the continent’s main growth engine.

The next five years: The report urges a pivot toward inclusive, sustainable and tech-driven growth, built on:

• Industrialization, intra-African trade and investment

• Digital transformation for jobs and better governance

• Climate adaptation, renewables and green jobs

• Stronger governance to tackle corruption and conflict

• Health and education to leverage Africa’s youth bulge

• Global partnerships that give Africa more influence in setting global rules

Yep, sounds about right. Read more: Brookings — Foresight Africa 2025–2030

Cocoa’s Costly Detour

Cocoa’s $10K Temptation: Cocoa prices have surged past $10K a ton, fueling a smuggling wave from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together produce nearly two-thirds of the world’s supply. Farmers are bypassing state-set prices for more lucrative cross-border deals.

Why it matters: More than 350,000 tonnes slipped out in 2023-24, draining export revenues vital for public budgets and debt service.

The challenge: Higher farmgate prices and tougher crackdowns have done little to curb smuggling, which persists due to entrenched corruption and weak enforcement.

What’s next: EU traceability rules, coming in late 2025, could block smuggled beans from top markets, pushing governments and industry to close price gaps and boost transparency. Read more: FT.

Planes, Pain and Paperwork

“It’s easier for Africans to meet in the Gulf than at home,” notes The Economist this week. Sadly, it’s true. It’s my favorite topic to complain about. Air travel within Africa is still painful—long layovers, sky-high prices and baffling routes. A Lagos–Freetown trip? Nearly $2K, two flights, a ferry and a seven-hour layover, just to go three hours west.

Why is it so hard?

• Tiny Market: Africa has 18% of the world’s people but just 2% of its air travelers.

• Sky-High Prices: Air taxes average double those in the Middle East; Sierra Leone alone charges $300+ in fees.

• No Open Skies: The AU’s “single air market” plan is still grounded.

• Visa Woes: Only one in three African routes are visa-free for Africans.

Signs of hope: East Africa’s network is improving, Côte d’Ivoire is betting on connectivity and slowly, Qatar Airways’ Africa deal inches forward.

Bottom line: Flying across Africa shouldn’t be harder than flying out of it. For now, it still is. Read more: The Economist. 

Long Read on Africa

Lessons from Adwa

I haven’t recommended a long read in a while but Ken Opalo’s piece on Ethiopia is worth the time. It’s a sharp look at how the country’s late-19th-century victory at Adwa safeguarded its sovereignty, then asks why African elites today aren’t matching that ambition with urgent self-driven modernization.

A few standout lines:

“…what’s needed is a fair amount of internal reflection… That is the only way that African states and societies will be able to thrive on the grand stage of history on their own terms and not predominantly feature as side plots in others’ history.”

“Given their important role in coordinating collective action and enforcing the norms that animate institutions, it’s impossible to go far with low-ambition elites.”

“In the final analysis, men like Menelik II and many members of the Independence Generation… were heads and shoulders above the current crop of African leaders who, despite their relatively much richer (human capital) endowments are arguably the most complacent ruling elites in the world.”

If you have 30 minutes, be sure to read: “How Ethiopia avoided colonization in the late 19th century but then lagged behind in the 20th century.”

Explorations in Africa

The Spirit Returns to Cotonou 

Benin’s looted royal treasures returned in 2021 but as the FT documented late last year, their real impact is only now unfolding. The restitution has sparked a cultural renaissance: blockbuster exhibitions, a booming art scene and a new creative quarter in Cotonou. President Talon is leaning into “heritage as strategy,” backing museums, monuments and even a 98-foot statue of a warrior queen.

Artist Romuald Hazoumè captured the mood: “Some say the objects themselves chose to come home. They knew who could care for them.” Spiritual, haunting and alive. Benin is telling its story again on its own terms. Read more: FT 

Tiny Benin keeps popping up. The startup scene is reportedly heating up and a July 4 TechCabal piece on tax breaks and digital infrastructure adds context. It might be time to book a trip.

Trivia Answer:

C) Kaffa from which the word “coffee” is believed to derive. Source: National Coffee Association.

Bye, bye from Rwanda. Major props to Innocent, Shayne and Ruth for sleuthing out leads, connecting dots and being the secret sauce behind The Africa Brief. Email us at [email protected] with your scuttlebutt. And if you are loving it, don't forget to share.