This week, we take another look at migration, democracy showing flashes of progress, governments spending but missing the mark (is that a global problem?) and how a key part of Africa’s energy future (energy storage) is emerging unevenly. From Washington’s potential new policy lead to fintechs going full-stack and batteries stuck in the pipeline, this week’s brief captures a continent recalibrating in real time, full of momentum, but still sometimes wrestling with execution.
Graphic of the Week
Africa's Missing Millions
Source: International IDEA
According to the Global State of Democracy 2025 report by International IDEA, Africa sent 45.7 million migrants abroad in 2024 but received only 26.9 million, a net outflow. But what’s most interesting is that most of that movement seems to stay within Africa.
The bright spots are real: Looking more broadly at topics covered in the report, Africa tied with the Americas for the highest share of democratic advances globally at 24%. Botswana recorded its first-ever transfer of power between parties, South Africa formed its first coalition government since 1994, and six of the world's top 20 civic engagement scores belong to African nations.
But the institutional picture is sobering: Africa accounted for 33% of all global democratic declines in 2024. Credible elections, effective parliament and elected government all deteriorated, with juntas in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger indefinitely delaying promised elections. Press freedom declined in nearly one in four African countries.
The bottom line: Africa's 45.7 million-strong diaspora represents an underutilized force for democratic resilience. But harnessing it may start with addressing the instability or economic issues that drive people to leave in the first place.
What We Are Reading
Africa: The U.S. Senate is set to confirm Frank Garcia as the U.S.’ top Africa official, signaling a shift from aid-focused policy toward trade, investment, and strategic interests amid diplomatic gaps (Semafor); Afreximbank launches $10B support plan to shield economies from Middle East conflict shocks (Reuters).
Benin: Voters head to presidential election as President Patrice Talon steps down with a strong economic record but rising security threats in the north (AP News).
Cameroon: Lawmakers approve constitutional amendment restoring vice presidency, giving President Paul Biya full power to appoint and dismiss the role (AP News).
DRC: Government agrees to receive migrants deported from the U.S. under a temporary third-country relocation deal funded by Washington (AP News).
Kenya: Private sector activity contracted in March for the first time since August 2025, driven by Middle East war impacts and reduced consumer spending (Reuters); Less than half of taxpayers are settling their obligations, leaving a $7.6B revenue shortfall (Bloomberg); Jambojet to grow fleet from 11 to 18 planes and add six new routes by 2029 despite rising fuel costs (Bloomberg);
Madagascar: Russia deepens ties with the military government providing weapons and support to expand influence in fragile African states (Bloomberg).
Nigeria: Flutterwave secured a Nigerian banking license, moving beyond payments into deposits, savings and lending (Semafor); Dangote refinery boosts gasoline and urea exports to African neighbors to ease regional fuel and fertilizer shortages (Reuters); World Bank says Nigeria must invest in early childhood development to turn economic stabilization into jobs growth and better living standards (World Bank).
Rwanda: The IMF and Rwanda agreed on a $250M 38-month funding program to support economic reforms and help manage rising fuel and fertilizer costs from the Iran conflict (CNBC Africa); Government uses mapping, satellite imagery and urban farming to protect farmland and ensure food security amid population growth and global fertilizer pressures (AP News).
Senegal: Government bans ministers from nonessential foreign travel as rising global oil prices strain public finances (BBC Africa).
South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa received U.S. Ambassador Brent Bozell’s credentials on April 8, signaling a potential thaw in Pretoria–Washington relations after last year’s diplomatic tensions (Bloomberg); Nearly half of municipal water systems are failing, worsening a national crisis and challenging Ramaphosa’s reforms (Semafor).
South Sudan: President Salva Kiir sacks parliament speaker and deputy speaker and appoints new leaders in a fresh political reshuffle (Reuters).
Somalia: Prepares for first offshore oil drilling with Turkish ship Çağrı Bey, aiming to unlock reserves and boost economic recovery (BBC Africa).
Zambia: $5B Lobito rail link connecting copper mines to Angola’s port will begin construction in 2026 and be completed by 2030 (Bloomberg).
Finance in Africa
Budget Plans vs. Reality
Source: IMF
According to a 2026 Departmental Paper by the IMF's African Department, sub-Saharan African governments consistently fail to execute budgets as planned, with fiscal deficits exceeding targets in three of the four years studied across 39 countries.
The core problem: Across 39 countries studied, the typical government ran a fiscal deficit 1.3% of GDP larger than it planned each year. The pattern is consistent: governments overspend on wages and emergency responses, things that are politically impossible to cut, while quietly slashing investment in roads, hospitals and infrastructure, the very things that drive long-term growth.
The bright spots: Countries with fiscal rules, independent oversight bodies and IMF program engagement showed meaningfully smaller deviations. Tax revenues also generally outperformed projections, suggesting revenue collection capacity may be improving.
The bottom line: Africa's budget credibility crisis is not random. Deficits widen in election years, grant revenue repeatedly disappoints and capital spending is the first casualty when money runs short. According to the report, until governments build stronger institutions and more realistic forecasts, budgets will remain more aspirational than planned.
Energy in Africa
Africa's Battery Bet
Source: IntelPoint
According to Visual Capitalist and IntelPoint, Africa's battery storage pipeline is growing but remains heavily concentrated in just a handful of countries, even as 600 million Africans still lack electricity.
Who's leading: South Africa dominates with 30 storage systems and 11 GWh of proposed capacity, more than three times Egypt's pipeline. Egypt and Morocco represent the next wave, with storage helping smooth the integration of solar and wind into their national grids.
Why it matters: Battery energy storage systems are becoming essential to Africa's renewable energy transition, managing the intermittency of solar and wind and supporting the off-grid systems critical to expanding electricity access across the continent.
The bottom line: The sector is beginning to take shape but most systems are still under construction or in planning. The continent's energy future depends on whether these projects move from pipeline to power grid.
Explorations in Africa
Pedal. Protect. Prosper.
Source: Singita.com
In a recent article, Condé Nast Traveler spotlights a cycling safari in Tanzania’s Singita Grumeti Reserve. Sixteen cyclists rode 31 miles in the inaugural Wagora Bike Ride, raising funds for anti-poaching. Guided by armed scouts, riders moved through active wildlife terrain, from zebras to lions.
Why it matters:
Named for slain scout Kitaboka Wagora, the ride ties tourism directly to conservation outcomes.
The model blends luxury travel with impact, funding patrols, rhino programs and ranger ops.
Results are real: lion populations up 16% annually, elephants up 7%, herbivores up 5x.
Perhaps the African safari is evolving for those who want a deeper experience! And if you are a cyclist wanting to try a trip in Africa, it seems there are a lot of options out there:
For hardcore riders: Tour d’Afrique runs a nearly 12,000 km Cairo to Cape Town ride.
For wildlife proximity: Africa Cycling offers guided rides through the Masai Mara and Serengeti with vehicle support.
For luxury adventure: Backroads blends biking, hiking and Big Five safaris across South Africa and Botswana.
For all budgets: TourRadar lists 100+ Africa cycling tours, from Morocco to Victoria Falls.
That’s a wrap from Marrakech, Morocco and my third trip to GITEX Africa. Thanks for tuning in. If you missed it, check out our calendar of Africa events. There are a couple of presidential elections coming up next week! Email us at [email protected] if you have comments or suggestions. P.S. A BIG shout-out to my colleague Shaynerose Magabi. This is her last edition helping me make the Africa Brief happen and I am super grateful for all her hard work.
