Wow. This was not the week I was expecting in Nairobi. This is a photo from our office at ABC Place, Waiyaki Way, looking towards downtown Nairobi. The highway outside our office was shut down as protesters marched toward the city center. Most of our meetings still happened as the private sector somehow kept hustling with minor interruptions. While adorable, this voice message from my daughter and nanny who were closer to the city center gave me a chilling reminder of the fragility of safety and peace. Someday she’ll understand. And as of now, the capital seems peaceful and Kenya is of course much more than this week’s headlines. Read our take on the Kenya’s startup ecosystem.

Too Long; Didn’t Read

• Burkina Faso - Security crisis deepens with more than 100 soldiers killed. (FT)

• Democratic Republic of Congo - Youth group defends against M23 rebels. (Africa News)

• Egypt - Businessman al-Organi's rise from prison to Gaza gatekeeper. (FT)

• Ethiopia - IMF extends negotiation period for reform demands. (Bloomberg)

• Ghana - Financial troubles lead to $13B debt restructuring. (Bloomberg); and high costs drive farmers to smuggle cocoa across the border. (Kuwait News)

• Ivory Coast - Mobile centers launched for health coverage enrollment. (ABC)

• Kenya - Protests erupt over tax bill approval (Bloomberg); Ruto reverses course on finance bill after deadly protests (New York Times).

• Mali - 12 years later, ICC convicts jihadist leader for atrocities in Timbuktu. (New York Times)

• Nigeria - Central bank optimistic on naira stabilization (Bloomberg); and a single-use plastics ban from January 2025? (Reuters)

• Sahel - U.S. explores maintaining presence amid political shifts. (Reuters)

• Somalia - AU endorses new force as existing troops exit. (Bloomberg)

• South Africa - Cabinet talks stall over ministerial offers, rand falls. (Bloomberg)

• Tanzania - British International Investment funds renewable energy projects to enhance rural supply. (Hydro Review)

• West Africa - EU to invest €150B in trade and transport infrastructure. (Punch)

• Africa - Macron and leaders launch $1.1B vaccine production initiative. (AlJazeera)

• Madagascar - Foundation supports creation of art ecosystem amid economic challenges. (FT)

• Zambia - IMF approves $569.6M aid package for reserves and drought relief. (Bloomberg)

Graphic of the Week

Digital ID: Boon or Big Brother

In Context: In 2019, McKinsey published a report stating that by 2030, emerging economies could unlock between 3% and 13% of GDP if governments implemented digital ID systems. More specifically, the report noted that Nigeria could unlock 7% (~$20.8B) and Ethiopia could unlock 6% (~$23.6B) of value. Economic benefits can be derived from the efficiency of: optimized e-government services, verifiable tax collection, electronic KYC, formalized business registration and verifiable asset and land ownership. Five years later, Modular Open Source Identify Platform (MOSIP) is now active in nine African countries in the pilot or implementation phase. Rwanda, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya are working at implementing their own systems. Meanwhile, data protection concerns have slowed progress in some countries. (Nation) And without proper controls, digital IDs can give rise to political manipulation and social control. Read our Deep Dive.

Business & Finance in Africa 

Debt Crisis: Backlash (and Progress)

Kenyans protested this week against a June 25 final vote for a new tax bill. Kenyan President William Ruto's push for a series of unpopular taxes has sparked widespread protests. (Bloomberg) Youth struggling against  a high cost of living drove the protests and many cite a mistrust of the government’s commitment to fight rampant corruption and provide services that make a difference in their lives. Africa Is A Country article, The Vibe is Giving Kipchoge is a good read. The fraught situation highlights the tension between the government's efforts to meet IMF demands for fiscal reforms and the public's discontent and mistrust of government. The situation culminated on June 25 with the Parliament signing the 2024 Finance Bill and sending it to Ruto for signature while angry protesters stormed National Assembly. More than 20 died and on June 26 Ruto reversed course and announced that he would not sign the finance bill. (New York Times) 

Despite achieving macroeconomic gains and receiving praise from international investors, Ruto now faces the challenge of balancing IMF mandates with addressing the grievances of his citizens. 

Ethiopia, Africa’s second largest country by population, may find itself in a similar situation as the IMF negotiations continue. The IMF is asking for reform in exchange for emergency funding. This week, the IMF agreed to give Ethiopia more time, but details of the agreement are not clear. (Bloomberg). 

Nigeria’s central bank Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, is optimistic that the naira is stabilizing, citing recent measures like interest rate hikes and policy overhauls. Cardoso emphasizes continuous efforts to curb inflation and rebuild investor confidence, despite the naira being the world’s worst-performing currency this year. (Bloomberg) In other news, Nigeria announced a ban on single use plastics from January 2025. It seems like a stretch with all that’s going on economically. (Reuters)

And then there is Ghana's economic crisis. Analysts say Ghana’s financial troubles stemmed from overspending and heavy borrowing. With an oil boom in sight, the government’s lack of fiscal discipline and costly projects led to a debt crisis, forcing the country to seek a $3B IMF bailout. This restructuring aims to manage the $13B eurobond debt and stabilize the economy amid high inflation and investor skepticism. The Cedi has declined 21% so far this year. (Bloomberg) This week Ghana has secured a crucial $13B debt restructuring agreement with private creditors, providing significant relief and enabling the continuation of its $3B IMF program. (Bloomberg) Despite a 58.26% price hike, high costs and a weak cedi are causing Ghanaian farmers to smuggle cocoa to Ivory Coast. (Kuwait News)

In southern Africa, the IMF has approved a $569.6M aid package for Zambia to bolster reserves and support drought relief, including $385.7M for debt and fiscal sustainability, while urging further debt negotiations for long-term stability. (Bloomberg)

In Context: Some believe African governments are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They want to improve the investment and business conditions and overcome their debt burdens, but also face pressure and mistrust from their citizens, who typically bear the brunt of economic reforms and are tired of corruption or lack of services. Time will tell if reforms really result in just short-term pain in exchange for long-term gains. For a macro perspective on Kenya’s national debt with context for Ghana and Ethiopia and reference to The Vatican’s plea for debt forgiveness, read this New York Times article.

Health in Africa 

Boosting Africa's Vaccine Production

World leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have launched a $1.1B initiative to accelerate vaccine production in Africa, addressing inequities highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator will provide financial incentives and offset start-up costs to enhance local vaccine manufacturing, with the European Union contributing $800M. This initiative aims to reduce Africa's reliance on imported vaccines and improve preparedness for future pandemics. (AlJazeera)

Ivory Coast has introduced mobile enrollment centers for its universal health coverage program, aiming to address accessibility issues and glitches reported since its 2019 inception. The program, intended to cover 70% of healthcare costs for 1,000 West African CFA francs, or $1.65 per person per month, has enrolled 40% (13 million) since 2019. Mobile centers will facilitate sign-ups and provide immediate access to care. Health Minister Pierre Dimba aims to enroll 20 million citizens by year-end, despite ongoing challenges. (ABC)

Peace & Security in Africa 

Youth Defend DRC

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a group of young people aged 18 to 25 called the "Wazalendo"  have taken up arms alongside the Congolese army to defend against the M23. They successfully repelled the rebels from Sake, emphasizing unity and collaboration. Despite this rhetoric, human rights concerns have arisen over violations committed by some fighters, prompting calls for government oversight. The conflict in North Kivu, involving M23 and the FARDC, remains intense and unresolved. (Africa News)

Sahel: New Strategy, New Challenges

Following a US Federal Bureau of Investigation Director’s visit to Kenya and Nigeria last week (New York Times), a top U.S. Air Force General C.Q. Brown is visiting Africa to explore options for maintaining a U.S. presence in West Africa after Niger expelled U.S. forces in favor of partnering with Russia in May. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is meeting with regional partners and considering relocating capabilities to other countries like Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana. The U.S. faces challenges in adapting to the changing political landscape marked by recent coups (the Sahel region has experienced nine coups in the past four years) and shifting alliances towards Russia, complicating efforts to address the growing terrorist threat in the Sahel region. (Reuters) Niger is considering funneling its oil through Chad because of a dispute with Benin relating to the toppling of the former Nigerien President in July’s coup (Africa News)and has also revoked the nuclear license of a French nuclear group at a uranium mine (Al Jazeera). 

Burkina Faso Security Crisis Deepens - Burkina Faso’s security worsens as over 100 soldiers are killed in an Islamist attack, highlighting the junta’s struggles under Captain Ibrahim Traoré. The assault near the Niger border, claimed by al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM, marks one of the worst losses for the military. Amidst public discontent and internal tensions, the crisis has displaced 2 million people, with militants controlling 60% of the territory. The economic downturn and disrupted agriculture have plunged over 40% of the population below the poverty line, raising fears of the regime’s collapse. (FT)

The International Criminal Court convicted Malian jihadist police leader Al Hassan for overseeing public floggings, torture and arbitrary arrests during the 2012 occupation of Timbuktu, reflecting ongoing challenges in Mali's fight against extremist violence. (New York Times)

And Then There’s al-Shabaab

The African Union endorsed the creation of a new force to replace over 13,000 troops set to leave Somalia, but the funding remains uncertain. Troops from Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Burundi and Djibouti will depart by December, after years of battling al-Shabaab and the EU hesitant to continue its financial support. (Bloomberg)

Democracy in Africa

Negotiations between South Africa’s ANC and DA stalled after the ANC withdrew its offer of the trade ministry, proposing the tourism ministry instead, which the DA rejected as a minor portfolio. This setback, following the ANC's loss of its parliamentary majority, has delayed forming a cabinet and caused the rand to fall by 1.3%, trading 1% weaker at 18.3568. Despite the challenges, both parties remain committed to forming a coalition government. (Bloomberg) 

Climate in Africa

Age-Old Debate: Green vs. Fossil Fuel

FT highlights the age-old debate this week. Should the continent invest in green energy to the tune of $100B or industrialize using fossil fuels? Experts say energy poverty and funding hurdles hinder Africa’s green transition and industrialization, with 600 million people lacking electricity and only 1% of the world's installed solar PV capacity despite having 60% of the best solar resources. Africa also faces significant climate adaptation financing gaps, needing $100B annually but receiving only $10B.

Post Ruto’s visit to the US, the US Department of Energy plans to invest in Kenya's green energy transition, focusing on e-mobility and clean power generation. Roam Electric is part of that with DFC’s recent investment. The U.S. is already collaborating with Kenya to enhance policy and infrastructure for clean energy investments which supports Kenya's goal of a complete transition to clean power by 2030, as outlined in the Kenya Green Resilient Electricity System Programme. Kenya, which already sources 91% of its energy from renewables, has the potential to expand its geothermal capacity to 10,000 MW, far exceeding the current peak demand of 2,000 MW. (Capital Business)

British International Investment (BII) will provide at least $15M to Rift Valley Energy (RVE) to expand renewable energy projects in Tanzania. This funding aims to enhance electricity supply in rural areas, developing 7.6 MW of new assets, benefiting 170,000 people, connecting 4,000 businesses and households, and creating 1,800 jobs. (Hydro Review)

Europe in Africa

The European Union Commission plans to invest €150 billion in trade and transport infrastructure across West Africa, focusing on the Lagos-Abidjan corridor to eliminate extortion checkpoints and improve port efficiency. This initiative, part of the Global Gateway Initiative, aims to facilitate coastal shipping, decongest Lagos ports, and enhance inland dry ports. Key projects include a one-stop border post between Benin and Nigeria and potential investments in rail infrastructure at Lekki port. (Punch)

Middle East in Africa

From Egyptian Prison to Gaza Gatekeeper

Ibrahim al-Organi has risen to become a key entrepreneur and trusted affiliate of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s government, overseeing a vast business empire since he was released from prison in Egypt. His companies, particularly Hala, have monopolized the movement of goods and people between Egypt and Gaza, charging high fees for safe passage. Organi's influence in the Sinai and Gaza is rooted in his connections with Egypt’s military and security elites, making him a significant figure in the region's power dynamics, especially amid the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His recent formation of the "Union of Arab Tribes" highlights his role in supporting the government's security efforts in Sinai. (FT)

Explorations in Africa

Wait, Madagascar Has An Art Scene?

Since 2017, businessman Hassanein Hiridjee's foundation has supported African artists with exhibitions and programs, aiming to create an art ecosystem in Madagascar, one of the world's poorest countries. The foundation, which houses around 1,000 works primarily by African artists, has ambitious plans despite Madagascar’s economic challenges, and Hiridjee emphasizes the importance of art alongside extensive humanitarian efforts by his company, Axian. Axian has 12,000 employees in 14 countries throughout Africa, with a turnover of $2.5B in 2023. Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world with a GDP per capita of around $520 as of 2022. (FT) Hiridjee’s foundation website www.fondation-h.com is worth a visit. And in case you are as fascinated with Madagascar as I am, check out this video on a variety of leeches that can jump for blood (New York Times) and how cable cars are now being used in the capital Antananarivo (Arise News).

P.S. Did you learn anything from the Brief this week? We hope so. Reach out if you have ideas or feedback ([email protected]) or want to chat about Kenya. Thanks Andrew Larsen for your work on MOSIP. I learned something. Josh Parker Allen is traveling this week in Vanuatu (can’t wait to hear the report), he’ll be back at his desk next week. My colleague Mary Ann Achieng did a lot of the prep work and final edits and this is Laura Davis, signing off from Nairobi. Next week you’ll find me home sweet home in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Hooray for two weeks of no travel. I’m tired.