This week’s Brief includes some difficult headlines: fuel shortages, conflict, insecurity and another Ebola scare in eastern Congo. But it also includes something else that is equally true: African governments, companies and entrepreneurs are continuing to build through volatility.
Even in a tougher news cycle, there are still signals worth paying attention to: mobile money transforming agriculture, industrial investment expanding in Ethiopia, Accra emerging as a serious cultural capital, and new infrastructure slowly reshaping how business gets done across the continent.
Africa rarely moves in a straight line. This week’s news is a reminder that both realities often exist at the same time.
Figure of the Week
More than 85% of all ISIS activity in the first quarter of 2026 occurred in Africa, underscoring the continent’s growing centrality to global security concerns. Source: Financial Times
Graphic of the Week
Update: Africa's Fuel Crunch
Source: FT
Fuel prices are sadly still a major topic of concern. A growing fuel crisis is spreading across Africa as governments cut subsidies and pass rising global oil prices on to consumers. Kenya, Mozambique and Comoros have all seen protests or strikes tied to sharp diesel and petrol increases. Malawi, already facing foreign currency shortages, has nearly exhausted fuel reserves.
By the numbers:
Kenya raised diesel prices 23.5%
Mozambique diesel prices jumped 46%
Malawi fuel prices are up more than 140% year over year
Why it matters:
Higher fuel prices are expected to drive inflation, increase pressure on heavily indebted governments and threaten economic growth forecasts across the continent. Landlocked countries that rely on imported fuel are being hit especially hard. Read more in the Financial Times.
Source: FT
What We Are Reading
Africa: World Bank announced plans to more than double annual guarantees in Africa to $6.4B over 3.5 years to mobilize private investment for energy, food security and infrastructure, aiming to crowd in $23B in capital (Reuters).
Cape Verde: The opposition PAICV party won the parliamentary elections and Prime Minister Ulisses Correia e Silva has conceded to Praia Mayor Francisco Carvalho after a decade in office in one of Africa’s most stable democracies (Africa News).
Egypt unveiled the only surviving sealed wall from Tutankhamun’s tomb, a rare artifact tied directly to the king’s original burial, alongside two restored New Kingdom tombs in Luxor as the country doubles down on cultural tourism (Reuters).
Ethiopia: Aliko Dangote is increasing his Ethiopia fertilizer project from $2.5B to more than $4B, a major push to reduce Africa’s dependence on imported fertilizer and expand regional industrial production (Reuters).
Ghana: The central bank announced it wants large gold miners to sell 30% of annual output (up from 20%) to build reserves, but negotiations with miners over pricing are ongoing (Reuters).
Kenya: Fuel price hikes triggered transport strikes and protests, leaving 4 people dead and 30+ injured (Reuters).
Mozambique has secured funding from an undisclosed source for Rwandan troops to continue operations against the Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado (Reuters).
Rwanda: Félicien Kabuga, accused financier and architect of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, died in custody before standing trial, closing one of the world’s most consequential unfinished genocide cases (The Free Press).
South Africa: Eskom warned it may cut electricity to Johannesburg over $315M in unpaid debt, highlighting worsening municipal finances and ongoing pressure on the country’s power system (Reuters).
Sudan: Around 19.5 million people faced acute hunger amid ongoing war, with famine risks persisting in Darfur and Kordofan as conflict, displacement and supply disruptions worsen (Reuters).
Zambia has eased restrictions on sulphuric acid exports to Congo after domestic supplies recovered, helping relieve pressure on copper and cobalt mining supply chains critical to the global energy transition (Reuters); The state investment firm ZCCM-IH has formed a gold mining joint venture aimed at expanding exploration, formalizing small-scale mining and diversifying the country’s mining sector beyond copper (Reuters).
Business & Finance in Africa
Africa’s Ag Fintech Shift
Source: Brookings
Cash is still king in African agriculture, even though digital payments could unlock credit, insurance and financial resilience for millions of farmers. According to a Brookings article, World Bank Global Findex 2025 data shows 57% of agricultural producers in sub-Saharan Africa now have some kind of financial account, but only 25% receive agricultural payments digitally. Mobile money is driving the shift where it is happening, especially in countries like Kenya, Senegal and Uganda.
Why it matters: This is bigger than payments. The article argues that digitizing agricultural payments creates the financial “data trail” farmers need to access loans, insurance, subsidies and AI-enabled advisory tools. In Africa’s largely informal agricultural economy, that transaction history could become foundational infrastructure for inclusive finance and SME lending.
Key numbers:
30% of adults in sub-Saharan Africa earn income from agriculture
40% of agricultural producers now have mobile money accounts, up from 17% in 2014
Only 25% receive agricultural payments digitally
Just 66% of cash-only agricultural producers own a phone
28% of agricultural producers already use the internet
Big idea: The Brookings piece reframes agricultural digitization as a value-chain infrastructure story, not simply a payments story. As finance, logistics and digital tools become embedded into rural commerce networks, the opportunity may extend well beyond fintech apps into the broader systems connecting farmers, suppliers and markets.
Governance in Africa
Africa’s Incentives
Source: IISD
A new International Institute for Sustainable Development report lays out a perspective that many African countries are relying too heavily on tax incentives to attract investment, often with weak oversight and little proof that the incentives actually work.
The setup
Of 105 emerging market investment laws reviewed, 71 offer incentives
Africa and Asia are the biggest users
Tax holidays and corporate tax cuts dominate
Agriculture, tourism, manufacturing and energy are the main targets
But the challenge may be in the lack of consistent implementation. Many countries now have overlapping tax codes, investment laws and special economic zone incentives operating simultaneously, often with weak coordination between investment agencies and finance ministries. The result: loopholes, weak oversight and lost revenue.
One striking global estimate: Tax incentives account for roughly 4% of GDP and 25% of total tax revenue globally. I wish the report had this estimate by country. The question “Would this investment happen without this incentive?” is a legitimate one.
The Africa angle
This issue matters as governments across Africa try to industrialize while also facing debt pressure and IMF scrutiny. Africa’s investment competition is shifting from “who offers the biggest incentives” to “who can build the strongest investment environment without eroding the tax base.”
Security in Africa
U.S. Targets ISIS Africa
According to the Financial Times, U.S. airstrikes in northeastern Nigeria killed more than 20 ISIS militants days after a joint U.S.-Nigerian operation reportedly killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described by President Trump as ISIS’s second-in-command globally.
What’s notable:
The strikes reveal a deeper U.S. military role in Nigeria than previously acknowledged, including drone operations and direct battlefield coordination with Nigerian forces.
Why it matters:
ISIS activity is increasingly concentrated in Africa, with conflict monitors estimating more than 85% of global ISIS activity in early 2026 occurred on the continent, particularly around the Lake Chad basin.
Health in Africa
Ebola Threat Grows
Source: The Economist
A new Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo is raising alarm among global health officials, with more than 500 suspected cases and 130 deaths already reported. The WHO has declared it a “public health emergency of international concern.”
Why this outbreak is different:
The virus strain spreading, Bundibugyo, has no licensed vaccine or rapid diagnostic test. Samples must be flown across the country for confirmation, slowing containment efforts.
Compounding factors:
Conflict in eastern Congo, weak state infrastructure and cuts to Western aid are making response efforts far harder. More than 100 militias remain active in the affected region, while many aid and surveillance programs were scaled back after U.S. and European funding cuts.
Why it matters:
Health officials worry this could become the worst Ebola outbreak in nearly a decade, with risks of regional spread into Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan.
Explorations in Africa
Ghana’s Creative Class
Source: FT
The Financial Times had a great piece last week on something longtime Ghana watchers already feel intuitively: Accra is evolving into one of Africa’s most interesting cultural capitals.
Not in a manufactured “luxury Africa” way. In a confident, locally rooted way.
The story moves through Jamestown street life, funeral culture, galleries, fashion, food and a new generation of creatives building institutions instead of waiting for validation abroad.
A few signals that stood out:
Gallery 1957 helped turn Accra into a serious contemporary art destination
Artemartis is incubating younger artists locally instead of exporting talent immediately
Ghanaian identity itself increasingly feels like a luxury brand
New restaurants and fashion houses are modernizing local culture instead of replacing it
One detail I especially appreciated: the feature highlights Affinity Africa founder Tarek Mouganie and his members club for creatives, Front/Back, which sounds like exactly the kind of place where someone casually explains a pan-African neobank thesis over the city’s best cocktails.
So, Tarek, if you’re reading this, it stings a little that I have yet to receive my temporary club pass. I’m going to work hard before my next visit to Accra to prove my creative side and establish my credentials as at least “creatively adjacent.” Disclosure: Renew Capital is an investor in Affinity Africa.
The bigger picture: For years, African luxury often mirrored Europe. Increasingly, the continent’s most interesting brands are leaning the other direction: more local identity, more cultural confidence and more pride in place. Definitely read more and consider a visit to Ghana.
Notes From Africa
Two Years Later
Source: Spotify
This week, two years ago, I took over editing The Africa Brief, mostly as a way to learn. Every week, I carve out time (often late Thursday night) to be curious, keep reading and better understand a continent that continues to surprise, frustrate and enchant me.
So it means a lot when people like Aakif Merchant in Kigali this week and others tell me the Brief has become part of their weekly rhythm. Thank you for reading, sharing and engaging.
We will keep experimenting and trying to make it more useful. We'd love to hear: what would make The Africa Brief even more valuable for you? More markets? More data? More founder stories? More policy? More explorations? Let me know in the comments or send me an email.
And if you’re in Ethiopia next week, that's where you'll find me. Happy to be sleeping in a familiar bed for a few weeks. As always, thanks for reading and a big thank you to my colleagues Ruth Ayalew and Innocent Kananga who do the heavy lifting around here.
P.P.S. If you are interested in the beats Africa is moving to these days, don’t miss Diamond Platnumz new song: Joy.
