This week, cities are expanding into farmland, financial systems are evolving, governments are rethinking how they grow and economists are debating whether the continent will follow Asia's development path or forge one of its own.
And enjoy a quick odyssey below to South Africa's spectacular Wild Coast before The Africa Brief takes a short summer break. We'll be back in your inbox on August 7.
Graphic of the Week
Africa's New Suburbs
Source: The Economist
I'm always drawn to graphics like this from The Economist that capture one of Africa's biggest challenges and opportunities: urbanization (and population growth). According to the article, Africa's cities aren't just getting bigger; they're growing differently. New neighborhoods are spreading into former farmland, often before roads, utilities or government services arrive.
By the numbers:
Africa's urban population has grown from 248 million to 829 million since 2000.
By 2050, the continent is expected to have 17 megacities, up from just three today.
Nearly three-quarters (72%) of recent city expansion has come from suburban growth.
Cities are projected to add another 275,000 square kilometers by 2050, roughly the size of New Zealand.
The twist: Unlike Western suburbs, many African neighborhoods are built first and serviced later. Families often buy land through informal markets and construct homes over many years as money becomes available.
Why it matters: Africa's suburbs are becoming the continent's new middle class. But without early investment in roads, utilities and housing, governments risk locking in decades of congestion, higher infrastructure costs and slower economic growth. The article is worth a ponder.
What We Are Reading
Africa: Online shopping is expanding through package-forwarding companies as shoppers bypass banking and address barriers, with South Africa’s e-commerce market reaching $7.3B in 2025 (Reuters); The IEA secured $900M in new clean cooking commitments, adding to $2.2B pledged since 2024 as the continent works to expand access for nearly 1 billion people (Bloomberg).
Angola: With inflation continuing to ease, the central bank lowered interest rates to 15.75% and reduced its inflation forecast to 8.6% (Reuters).
Cameroon is seeing early success from its malaria vaccine rollout, though most children still miss the final booster needed for longer-lasting protection (AP News); The main port reopened after a weekend cargo ship collision temporarily disrupted trade through one of Central Africa's busiest shipping hubs (Reuters).
Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa demand recovery remains fragile as supply concerns threaten higher prices, with the 2026-27 production forecast falling 20% (Bloomberg).
DR Congo: President Tshisekedi ordered revenue agencies to ease mining enforcement, seeking to protect investor confidence in the copper and cobalt sector (Reuters); First clinical trial of a Bundibugyo Ebola vaccine began as the outbreak surpassed 700 deaths, testing a potential tool against the strain (Bloomberg).
Egypt’s parliament approved a law placing the military-linked Future of Egypt Authority under presidential oversight, further expanding its role across the economy (Reuters).
Ghana: Small-scale gold production is on track to match or surpass last year’s record of 104 metric tons (Reuters).
Guinea-Bissau: A military tribunal ordered prominent opposition leader and former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira to be returned to prison (Reuters).
Kenya: Greenpeace warned Dangote’s planned $17B Lamu refinery could harm fragile coastal ecosystems, while the government says it could boost fuel security and regional trade (Bloomberg); Kenya is considering a $500M eurobond buyback to extend debt maturities and ease repayment pressures as it manages $43.7B in external debt (Bloomberg).
Libya: At least 50 migrants are feared dead after a boat capsized off the coast, highlighting continued dangers on Mediterranean migration routes (Reuters).
Malawi: Canva's billionaire founders are investing $150M in Malawi's poorest households through the world's largest unconditional cash transfer program, with early results showing sharp gains in incomes, health and education (Business Insider Africa).
Nigeria: Pension assets grew 51% to $22.8B in two years as confidence in the pension system improves (Reuters); Security forces rescued 39 schoolchildren and six teachers kidnapped nearly two months ago in Oyo State, with eight suspects arrested (Reuters); The country is pushing to regain frontier market status as its stock market surges, a move that could attract billions in new foreign investment (Bloomberg).
Senegal: Former President Macky Sall will return for the first time since leaving office as he campaigns for U.N. secretary-general (Reuters); Senegal's hidden debt scandal has transformed one of West Africa's strongest economies into one of its most heavily indebted, jeopardizing infrastructure investment and IMF support (Bloomberg).
Sierra Leone: The Netherlands is pushing the EU to suspend development aid to Sierra Leone unless it extradites one of Europe's most wanted drug traffickers (FT).
Sudan: EU imposed sanctions on Sudan’s gold trade and restricted mercury and cyanide exports, aiming to cut funding sources for the country’s conflict (Reuters); Food insecurity is worsening as 19.5 million people face acute hunger, with conflict, aid cuts and rising farming costs threatening to reverse previous gains (Reuters).
Tanzania: Billionaire Mohammed Dewji expressed interest in investing $100M in Dangote’s planned $17B East African refinery, though Kenya remains the selected site (Bloomberg).
Governance in Africa
Africa's Biggest Growth Lever
Source: IMF
The IMF says Africa's biggest growth opportunity isn't more spending, it's better governance. Improving institutions, opening markets and reducing business barriers could unlock significantly faster growth as governments face rising debt and shrinking fiscal space.
By the numbers:
At current growth rates, average incomes in sub-Saharan Africa would take about 50 years to double.
GDP per capita has grown just 1.4% annually over the past three years, versus 3.4% across emerging markets.
Closing half the reform gap with leading emerging markets could increase economic output by about 20% within a decade.
Governance reforms alone could boost GDP by more than 11%, compared with about 8% from greater market openness and 3% from improving business regulations.
The shift: The IMF argues Africa's public sector-led growth model has run its course. Future growth will depend on attracting private investment, improving productivity and creating jobs for the continent's rapidly expanding workforce.
Why it matters: The biggest barrier to growth may not be a lack of capital. According to the IMF, stronger institutions and more predictable policies could generate some of the continent's largest long-term economic gains.
Business & Finance in Africa
Nigeria's Digital Dollars
Source: IMF
According to recent IMF analysis, stablecoins are becoming a mainstream way for Nigerians to send money abroad, receive remittances and pay international suppliers, bypassing traditional banks and lowering transaction costs.
By the numbers:
Nigeria received $59B in crypto inflows between July 2023 and June 2024.
It accounts for roughly 60% of all stablecoin inflows into sub-Saharan Africa since 2019.
Nigeria ranked No. 2 globally (after India) for crypto adoption in 2024. Note: This Chainalysis ranking measures grassroots adoption, not total crypto volume, by weighting usage by purchasing power and population.
The driver: A weaker naira, high inflation and limited access to foreign exchange have pushed households and businesses toward U.S. dollar-pegged digital assets as both a payment tool and a store of value.
Why it matters: Nigeria isn't just adopting crypto. It's becoming one of the world's largest real-world testing grounds for how stablecoins could reshape international payments, financial regulation and the future of money.
Agriculture in Africa
Must Growth Start on the Farm?
Source: The Economist
A few months back, we talked about Joe Studwell and his new book, How Africa Works (read a review in the Financial Times). His thesis is straightforward: Africa's long-term prosperity will depend on raising agricultural productivity, much as Asia did during its Green Revolution.
This week, The Economist examined data suggesting Africa may be following a different path.
By the numbers:
Africa produces nearly 5x more cereals than it did in the 1960s.
Yet cereal yields have stagnated since 2020.
Most African countries had lower agricultural productivity in 2023 than a decade earlier.
The debate:
Studwell: As land becomes scarcer, farmers become more productive, creating the foundation for manufacturing and sustained economic growth.
The Economist: That pattern hasn't emerged. Instead, many African farmers are leaving agriculture for cities and informal jobs before productivity accelerates, while food imports reduce pressure to intensify farming.
Why it matters: This is one of the biggest questions in African development. Is agriculture still the foundation of long-term prosperity, or is Africa forging a different path? The answer could shape where governments invest and where private capital flows over the next generation.
Source: The Economist
Explorations in Africa
The Wild Coast Returns
Source: FT
South Africa’s Wild Coast is beautiful. And according to an FT article from a few months ago, the area is quietly becoming one of the country's most remarkable conservation success stories. Once home to a leper colony and later a tuberculosis hospital, the Mkambati Nature Reserve has been transformed into a community-owned protected area where tourism now supports conservation and local livelihoods.
The backstory:
The reserve operated as a leper colony from 1922 to 1959.
After apartheid, seven Mpondo communities successfully reclaimed their ancestral land.
Rather than develop it, they chose to preserve it and build an ecotourism economy.
What's new: A new luxury eco-lodge, GweGwe Beach Lodge, is helping bring visitors to one of Africa's least-visited coastlines, where waterfalls plunge into the ocean, endemic plant species thrive and annual sardine migrations attract whales, dolphins and seabirds.
Why it matters: The Wild Coast offers a different vision for conservation, one where protected landscapes aren't fenced off from local communities but owned by them. It's a reminder that some of Africa's most compelling travel destinations are also experiments in restoration, reconciliation and sustainable development.
Summer Break: The Africa Brief will take a short summer break on July 24 or July 31. We'll be back on August 7. In the meantime, if you have story ideas, feedback or just want to say hello, email us at [email protected].
