This week, we explore why support for free trade is strongest in some of the continent's poorest countries, how electricity prices vary by a factor of 17, the UAE's growing influence across Africa and why AI's biggest opportunity may be creating better jobs, not replacing them.
Graphic of the Week
Free Trade Surprise
Source: Afrobarometer
The Beyond Borders 2026 report from Afrobarometer has some points that challenge conventional wisdom. Across Africa, countries where more people report poor living conditions tend to be more supportive of free trade, bucking trends seen in most other regions. The authors suggest many households depend on imported essentials, making trade openness less about ideology and more about affordability.
By the numbers:
69%: Support free trade in Lesotho, where 77% report poor living conditions.
83%: Support free trade in Benin, where 61% reporting poor living conditions.
30%: Support free trade in Madagascar, showing economic hardship alone doesn't explain attitudes.
Bottom line: Across much of Africa, free trade is viewed less as a threat to local jobs and more as a pathway to lower prices, greater choice and economic opportunity.
P.S. The Afrobarometer report is FULL of good graphs and insights, so don’t miss it.
What We Are Reading
Africa: Chinese automakers are shifting EV production to Africa, betting local manufacturing will unlock the continent's next automotive growth market (AP News); West African energy regulators stepped up plans for a regional fuel pricing benchmark and trading hub centered around the Dangote refinery (CNBC Africa); Russia secured continued access to key Syrian military bases to support expanding operations in Africa (Bloomberg).
Cameroon: Bonds are under pressure as investors grow increasingly nervous over the unexplained two-month public absence of 93-year-old President Paul Biya, fueling renewed concerns about political succession (Bloomberg).
Djibouti: Government provided emergency reconstruction aid to 450 households hit by severe windstorms in the Dikhil region (Dawan Africa).
DR Congo: Scientists believe a new Ebola variant is driving the outbreak, confirming a fresh animal-to-human spillover as cases top 4,300 with more than 2,000 deaths (CNBC Africa); Civil society organizations urged President Tshisekedi to abandon constitutional referendum plans (Africa News).
Guinea selected Glencore to market bauxite from its state-owned miner as it expands into refining (Bloomberg).
Kenya: Customs revenue collected by the Kenya Revenue Authority hits a record KSH 92.5B (Kenyans).
Libya: Military intelligence chief Brigadier Fowzi Mansouri was killed in a car bomb explosion outside his Benghazi home (Reuters).
Malawi: Tens of thousands of Malawian migrants are returning from South Africa after anti migrant protests left many without jobs (Bloomberg).
Nigeria: Government approved military salary increase of up to 80% amid ongoing security threats (DabaFinance); EV adoption faces hurdles as a weak grid and electricity shortages limit charging capability (Reuters).
Senegal: Fortuna Mining announced it will invest $200M to acquire and expand a major gold project (Bloomberg).
South Africa: After ending years of blackouts, Eskom, the national power company, said it is targeting AI data centers to turn South Africa's power surplus into new revenue (FT).
Sudan: UNICEF warns that more than 8 million children remain out of school as civil war damages education infrastructure (OkayAfrica).
Zambia: President Hakainde Hichilema is favored to win re-election (the election was yesterday) as economic recovery boosts his record despite persistent poverty and rising living costs (Bloomberg).
Electricity in Africa
Power Price Gap
Residential electricity prices vary dramatically across Africa, reflecting fuel mix, grid size and government subsidies. The latest Electron Intelligence Electricity Pricing Index compares the cost of 100 kWh per month across 23 markets using the same methodology.
By the numbers:
$0.23/kWh: Residential electricity price in Sierra Leone, the highest in the comparison (another source report Cabo Verde with electricity costs at $0.32 per kWh as the highest in Africa).
$0.01/kWh: Ethiopia's residential electricity price, the lowest.
17x: The difference between the highest and lowest residential tariffs.
$0.13/kWh: Median residential electricity price across the markets surveyed.
Bottom line: What households pay often reflects government policy as much as production costs. Residential tariffs are frequently cross-subsidized, meaning businesses in the same country can face very different electricity prices.
Middle East in Africa
Abu Dhabi's Play
Source: FT
A recent FT article on the UAE and Africa provides some great context. The UAE has quietly become one of Africa's biggest investors, building ports, buying farmland, investing in mines and expanding trade links across the continent. Supporters see much-needed capital. Critics warn the growing economic footprint is increasingly intertwined with military and political influence.
By the numbers:
$168B: UAE investments announced across Africa since 2017.
13: African countries where DP World operates or is developing ports and logistics hubs.
30,000+: African companies were registered with the Dubai Chamber of Commerce in 2025.
A Quote
“Africa is one of the emerging lungs of the global economy. It sits at the intersection of the U.S.-China cold war; it has an Arab-Islamic dimension, and the UAE needs a stake not just in Africa’s future but in defining its stability and prosperity,” Nadim Koteich says. “What Abu Dhabi is building is not a portfolio, it’s a system.”
Zoom in: GITEX Africa and GITEX Global may be the most visible symbols of the UAE's engagement with the continent, but the bigger story is unfolding through long-term investments in trade, logistics, agriculture and critical minerals.
Bottom line: As Western engagement declines and China recalibrates, the UAE is emerging as one of Africa's most influential external partners, bringing both investment and geopolitical baggage.
Source: FT
Innovation in Africa
AI's Productivity Puzzle
Source: IMF
Continuing our look at the IMF's Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa, here's another good graphic. The report finds that AI is unlikely to replace most jobs in Africa anytime soon, but that also means the region may capture fewer of AI's productivity gains under current economic conditions as we covered last week.
By the numbers:
80%: Of jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa have limited exposure to AI.
22%: Of jobs are likely to be affected by current AI technologies.
13%: Of jobs face a higher risk of AI-driven replacement.
10%: Of jobs are more likely to be enhanced by AI than replaced.
Why it matters: By 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa will account for roughly half of all new entrants to the global workforce, adding up to 15 million workers each year. The IMF argues the opportunity isn't simply adopting AI; it's creating more productive jobs where AI can complement, rather than replace, workers.
Explorations in Africa
Ivorian Creative Haven
Source: The Guardian
In Côte d’Ivoire, artists are leaving expensive Abidjan for Grand-Bassam, helping transform Côte d'Ivoire's former capital into a fast-growing creative hub.
By the numbers:
30 miles: Distance from Abidjan, close enough to stay connected, far enough for lower costs.
2016: A jihadist attack killed 19 people and damaged the city's tourism industry.
2+ dozen: Artists and musicians from around the world have participated in a residency at La Fourchette de Rōze since 2023.
Zoom in: New studios, artist residencies and the reopening of La Maison de l'Art are giving the UNESCO World Heritage city a second act as one of West Africa's emerging cultural centers. Read more: The Guardian
Thanks for reading. In case you missed it, look back at last week’s graphic of the week that documents the economic importance of oranges. Email us at [email protected].
